PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · TVL surges · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-22

TVL surges of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: all 130 measured cases

TVL surge size · microbtc trend · upheld up on recent cases 407 cases on record last 5 cases: 1 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a TVL surge?

higher the next day

45%

59 of 130 past cases

45% of past cases were higher (90% range 38-53%)

90% range 38%–53%

higher after 30 days

38%

50 of 131 cases measured after 30 days

38% of past cases were higher (90% range 31-45%)

90% range 31%–45% · typical move −12.8%

typical next day
−1.0%
typical after 30 days
−12.8%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−14.4%
best after 30 days
+421.1%
worst after 30 days
−63.8%
30 days: up · sideways · down
41 · 17 · 73

recent-cases check · held up: 44% → 48% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

TVL JUMPall TVL surges against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
−4−9…+1
7 days
−4−10…+1
30 days
−7−12…−1

After TVL surges, the price was higher 30 days later in 36% of 363 cases on 307 separate days, against 43% of the same coins' ordinary days: −7 points (95% range −12 to −1; older half −9, newer half −5). Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 2 coins.

Every past TVL surge, 30 days on 131 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 38 rose · ▼ 66 fell · ◆ 27 sideways (±13% over 30 days)

Each line is one past TVL surge: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 131 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

TVL surges of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 130 of the 407 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 59 of those 130 closed higher — a base rate of 45%, with a 90% range of 38% to 53%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up130 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

TVL surges of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 130 of the 407 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 59 of those 130 closed higher — a base rate of 45%, with a 90% range of 38% to 53%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.

  • By day 30, 50 of the 131 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (38%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −12.8%, the best +421.1% and the worst −63.8%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −14.4% vs BTC and beat it in 32.1% of 131 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 44% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 48% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • 8 days ago · GROVE Grove Finance next day −0.9% · 7 days −34.1% · 30 days lands
  • 12 days ago · ORDER Orderly Network next day +0.7% · 7 days −17.3% · 30 days lands
  • 24 days ago · ANVL Anvil next day −2.1% · 7 days −10.3% · 30 days lands

NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.

Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL surges of micro-cap tokens →

Every past case407 cases

Every past TVL surge behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 407 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

407 past cases of tvl surges of micro-cap tokens with btc above its 50-day average, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Grove Finance (GROVE) 0.2% of circ. −0.9% in 22 days in 22 days sideways next day
Orderly Network (ORDER) 0.4% of circ. +0.7% in 18 days in 18 days sideways next day
Anvil (ANVL) 0.5% of circ. −2.1% in 6 days in 6 days down next day
Gravity (G) 0.7% of circ. −39.1% −63.8% −66.0% down next day
Avalon (AVL) 0.3% of circ. −4.6% −10.1% −17.7% down next day
VVS Finance (VVS) 0.2% of circ. −3.9% +11.3% +3.6% down next day
Unitas (UP) 0.2% of circ. +4.4% −53.9% −63.1% up next day
Wirex Token (WXT) 0.3% of circ. +2.6% −18.3% −40.0% up next day
Lombard (BARD) 1.7% of circ. +1.7% −16.8% −17.7% up next day
SaucerSwap (SAUCE) 1.8% of circ. −3.4% −24.4% −3.7% down next day
Origin Protocol (OGN) 0.2% of circ. +6.0% −22.0% −4.7% up next day
Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) 0.2% of circ. −5.1% −49.6% −27.4% down next day
Spark (SPK) 0.3% of circ. −8.5% −46.1% −20.9% down next day
GAIB (GAIB) 0.9% of circ. −1.3% −30.9% −15.8% down next day
Euler (EUL) 0.2% of circ. −12.3% −25.9% −24.4% down next day
River (RIVER) 0.4% of circ. −2.1% +0.8% +2.6% down next day
Synapse (SYN) 0.3% of circ. +5.6% +3.4% −1.7% up next day
Dolomite (DOLO) 0.2% of circ. −1.2% −8.5% −10.0% down next day
Orderly Network (ORDER) 0.3% of circ. +9.3% +2.4% −9.8% up next day
Celer Network (CELR) 0.3% of circ. +1.2% +24.9% +11.4% up next day
Babylon (BABY) 0.2% of circ. −5.7% +17.6% +7.9% down next day
Frankencoin (ZCHF) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Gravity (G) 0.5% of circ. −10.7% −12.4% −16.7% down next day
Wirex Token (WXT) 11.9% of circ. +1.5% +19.5% +15.2% up next day
River (RIVER) 0.4% of circ. +22.2% −63.7% −64.0% up next day
Dolomite (DOLO) 0.6% of circ. −14.2% −45.8% −17.9% down next day
River (RIVER) 0.4% of circ. −22.4% −49.8% −21.8% down next day
Frankencoin (ZCHF) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SoSoValue (SOSO) 0.2% of circ. −0.6% −13.1% +10.9% sideways next day
Aquarius (AQUA) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2025
Bluefin (BLUE) 0.3% of circ. −11.7% −49.0% −34.1% down next day
GRVT Token (GRVT) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LAB (LAB) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Veranta (AVNT) 0.3% of circ. −12.7% −50.3% −46.4% down next day
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.2% of circ. +4.4% −28.3% −23.0% up next day
Kava Lend (HARD) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Puffer (PUFFER) 0.3% of circ. −9.6% −59.1% −52.7% down next day
Zeus Network (ZEUS) 0.2% of circ. −5.5% −47.7% −41.3% down next day
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) 0.2% of circ. +6.9% +111.2% +118.4% up next day
Hemi (HEMI) 0.2% of circ. −2.9% −1.2% +6.0% down next day
HEGIC (HEGIC) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LAB (LAB) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Teller (DEBIT) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
River (RIVER) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Zest Protocol (ZEST) 1.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) 1.4% of circ. +10.5% +45.0% +47.6% up next day
LAB (LAB) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
HEGIC (HEGIC) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) 0.2% of circ. −7.8% +5.9% +9.3% down next day
Hemi (HEMI) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Zeus Network (ZEUS) 0.3% of circ. +7.5% +0.1% +4.0% up next day
LFJ (JOE) 0.2% of circ. −8.7% −21.0% −16.9% down next day
River (RIVER) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
River (RIVER) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Origin Protocol (OGN) 0.2% of circ. +1.7% +6.8% +5.8% up next day
LAB (LAB) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Hemi (HEMI) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sushi (SUSHI) 0.3% of circ. +9.4% +34.1% +26.9% up next day
Zircuit (ZRC) 0.2% of circ. −9.7% +44.4% +35.7% down next day
River (RIVER) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ankr (ANKR) 2.5% of circ. +2.1% +29.2% +17.5% up next day
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Zerobase (ZBT) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Cetus Protocol (CETUS) 4.7% of circ. +9.5% −16.3% −21.5% up next day
LFJ (JOE) 0.3% of circ. +8.4% −9.9% −13.1% up next day
UniCrypt (UNCX) 5.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Hemi (HEMI) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Hyperion (RION) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Momentum (MMT) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aquarius (AQUA) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bluefin (BLUE) 0.2% of circ. — −29.5% −30.9% not measured yet
Brickken (BKN) 1.4% of circ. — −15.2% −18.4% not measured yet
Harvest Finance (FARM) 0.3% of circ. −5.2% −16.0% −17.8% down next day
TermMax (TMX) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Hyperion (RION) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Hemi (HEMI) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Rocket Pool (RPL) 0.2% of circ. +25.1% +15.2% +8.1% up next day
Treehouse (TREE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Renzo (REZ) 0.2% of circ. +14.8% −22.5% −29.6% up next day
Puffer (PUFFER) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
StakeWise (SWISE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
mETH Protocol (COOK) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bluefin (BLUE) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
River (RIVER) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Zeus Network (ZEUS) 0.2% of circ. −6.5% −37.5% −48.5% down next day
Hyperion (RION) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Zest Protocol (ZEST) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Babylon (BABY) 0.4% of circ. +6.8% +0.6% −14.5% up next day
River (RIVER) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ALEX Lab (ALEX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LAB (LAB) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
HEGIC (HEGIC) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
WOO (WOO) 0.9% of circ. +3.4% +26.5% +11.5% up next day
Suilend (SEND) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bsquared Network (B2) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Solv Protocol (SOLV) 0.2% of circ. +2.3% +88.5% +63.1% up next day
Lista DAO (LISTA) 0.3% of circ. +2.1% −4.6% −27.3% up next day
Gravity (G) 4.7% of circ. −2.8% −16.9% −9.6% down next day
HEGIC (HEGIC) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SoSoValue (SOSO) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Access Protocol (ACS) 0.2% of circ. −7.1% −37.4% −22.1% down next day
Aura (AURA) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
KiloEx (KILO) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aurora (AURORA) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LFJ (JOE) 0.2% of circ. −11.6% −38.0% −29.5% down next day
RateX (RTX) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Frankencoin (ZCHF) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2024
Avalon (AVL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Zest Protocol (ZEST) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Zircuit (ZRC) 0.4% of circ. +2.0% −13.6% −23.1% up next day
Dream Machine Token (Ethereum) (DMT) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lista DAO (LISTA) 0.3% of circ. +3.7% −30.6% −25.8% up next day
Bluefin (BLUE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PumpBTC (PUMP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
pSTAKE Finance (PSTAKE) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Babylon (BABY) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Across Protocol (ACX) 0.3% of circ. −19.7% −48.2% −45.3% down next day
DODO (DODO) 0.2% of circ. −15.0% −28.9% −26.0% down next day
River (RIVER) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Dream Machine Token (Ethereum) (DMT) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
HTX (HTX) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
stake.link (SDL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SaucerSwap (SAUCE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Maverick Token (MAV) 0.3% of circ. +0.6% −31.5% −28.8% sideways next day
Thena (THE) 0.4% of circ. −4.9% −49.3% −47.3% down next day
Cellframe (CELL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bluefin (BLUE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
UniCrypt (UNCX) 6.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aurora (AURORA) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bsquared Network (B2) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LFJ (JOE) 0.2% of circ. +13.1% +0.1% −0.9% up next day
Dream Machine Token (Ethereum) (DMT) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
AdEx (ADX) 0.3% of circ. +1.9% +26.3% +23.1% up next day
SaucerSwap (SAUCE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Euler (EUL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
VVS Finance (VVS) 0.4% of circ. −14.9% −0.7% −16.0% down next day
Zest Protocol (ZEST) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Minswap (MIN) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Dream Machine Token (Ethereum) (DMT) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bsquared Network (B2) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Avalon (AVL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Treehouse (TREE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SynFutures (F) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Gains Network (GNS) 1.8% of circ. −9.8% +31.3% −12.2% down next day
Fuel Network (FUEL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bsquared Network (B2) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) 2.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
KernelDAO (KERNEL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Avalon (AVL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Dream Machine Token (Ethereum) (DMT) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Echelon Prime (PRIME) 0.2% of circ. −1.5% +25.1% −16.6% down next day
Solv Protocol (SOLV) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orderly Network (ORDER) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Dogelon Mars (ELON) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bsquared Network (B2) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Treehouse (TREE) 1.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PumpBTC (PUMP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tokemak (TOKE) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Enzyme (MLN) 0.3% of circ. +11.9% +22.2% +8.8% up next day
Bsquared Network (B2) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Solv Protocol (SOLV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Citrea (CTR) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) 0.2% of circ. −4.8% −21.9% −12.4% down next day
Dream Machine Token (Ethereum) (DMT) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sushi (SUSHI) 10.2% of circ. −14.3% −23.5% −19.6% down next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
RCH Token (RCH) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
EVAA Protocol (EVAA) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
WOO (WOO) 0.8% of circ. −4.0% −25.3% −16.3% down next day
Lista DAO (LISTA) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Taiko (TAIKO) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
UniCrypt (UNCX) 7.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orderly Network (ORDER) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
MCDEX (MCB) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Mitosis (MITO) 1.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) 0.2% of circ. +2.8% −23.1% −16.1% up next day
Avalon (AVL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LAB (LAB) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Dogelon Mars (ELON) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SynFutures (F) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Flamingo Finance (FLM) 0.2% of circ. +8.6% −36.1% −24.1% up next day
Ren (REN) 0.2% of circ. −6.9% −40.3% −28.2% down next day
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Solv Protocol (SOLV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sonic SVM (SONIC) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LFJ (JOE) 0.5% of circ. −4.2% −43.6% −30.8% down next day
Tarot (TAROT) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SynFutures (F) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
AUSD (AUSD) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sushi (SUSHI) 3.7% of circ. +0.5% −38.2% −42.9% sideways next day
Cellframe (CELL) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aurora (AURORA) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
AUSD (AUSD) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Metis Token (METIS) 0.2% of circ. −3.7% −48.2% −42.1% down next day
Bone ShibaSwap (BONE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Gearbox (GEAR) 1.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lista DAO (LISTA) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SaucerSwap (SAUCE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aurora (AURORA) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Origin Protocol (OGN) 0.2% of circ. −0.7% +39.5% −18.6% sideways next day
Puffer (PUFFER) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lista DAO (LISTA) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Gearbox (GEAR) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
UniCrypt (UNCX) 14.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sonic SVM (SONIC) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Renzo (REZ) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2023
StakeStone (STO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
AUSD (AUSD) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LAB (LAB) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Citrea (CTR) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stake DAO (SDT) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Metis Token (METIS) 1.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ren (REN) 0.5% of circ. −3.1% −3.6% −7.0% down next day
ALEX Lab (ALEX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
mETH Protocol (COOK) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aevo (AEVO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ApeX Token (APEX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aurora (AURORA) 1.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ALEX Lab (ALEX) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Spell Token (SPELL) 0.2% of circ. −1.2% +12.9% −1.3% down next day
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Echelon Prime (PRIME) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Balancer (BAL) 5.4% of circ. +1.9% +4.1% −13.8% up next day
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Spark (SPK) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tokemak (TOKE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sushi (SUSHI) 0.2% of circ. +7.0% +90.4% +65.6% up next day
Marinade (MNDE) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BiFi (BIFI) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) 1.6% of circ. +2.7% +21.6% −10.8% up next day
LFJ (JOE) 0.4% of circ. +0.6% +51.7% +15.9% sideways next day
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Spark (SPK) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SmarDex (SDEX) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Marinade (MNDE) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Citrea (CTR) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tarot (TAROT) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Spark (SPK) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 1.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Delysium (AGI) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kava Lend (HARD) 0.5% of circ. −0.4% −24.9% −13.5% sideways next day
Synapse (SYN) 0.2% of circ. +2.6% −11.2% −8.6% up next day
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SmarDex (SDEX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
AUSD (AUSD) 1.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SmarDex (SDEX) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ALEX Lab (ALEX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ALEX Lab (ALEX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tarot (TAROT) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Enzyme (MLN) 0.4% of circ. −0.9% −19.0% −36.7% sideways next day
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Multichain (MULTI) 0.9% of circ. +4.6% −1.5% −2.5% up next day
Gains Network (GNS) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stake DAO (SDT) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Marinade (MNDE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Thena (THE) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2022
Loopring (LRC) 0.2% of circ. −11.9% −31.2% −11.5% down next day
AUSD (AUSD) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Hashflow (HFT) 0.3% of circ. — −45.0% −28.4% not measured yet
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 0.3% of circ. −0.9% −32.4% −11.4% sideways next day
Gearbox (GEAR) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) 0.7% of circ. −16.1% −19.1% −5.2% down next day
Yelay (YLAY) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stake DAO (SDT) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Celer Network (CELR) 0.3% of circ. −4.2% −46.7% −25.1% down next day
Darkweb Metaverse (DARK) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Loopring (LRC) 0.2% of circ. −1.5% −17.3% −7.0% down next day
Euler (EUL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Minswap (MIN) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
WOO (WOO) 0.2% of circ. −5.7% −16.1% −14.4% down next day
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 0.3% of circ. −4.0% +26.9% +29.2% down next day
XMAQUINA (DEUS) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tokemak (TOKE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Citrea (CTR) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Enzyme (MLN) 12.1% of circ. +8.7% +1.1% +4.1% up next day
Darkweb Metaverse (DARK) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
WOO (WOO) 1.0% of circ. −5.7% +16.3% +12.1% down next day
Stader (SD) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Celer Network (CELR) 0.7% of circ. −12.0% −24.2% −17.9% down next day
Agora by Virtuals (AGORA) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2021
VVS Finance (VVS) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Origin Protocol (OGN) 0.3% of circ. −7.2% −47.0% −22.1% down next day
Rocket Pool (RPL) 19.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Badger (BADGER) 0.4% of circ. −20.7% −58.7% −36.9% down next day
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Loopring (LRC) 0.2% of circ. +15.1% +421.1% +428.3% up next day
Tokemak (TOKE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Access Protocol (ACS) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Channels (CAN) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Perle (PRL) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ethernity Chain (ERN) 0.3% of circ. −6.3% +16.4% +13.2% down next day
LFJ (JOE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synapse (SYN) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bone ShibaSwap (BONE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Marinade (MNDE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) 1.0% of circ. −5.7% −0.9% −26.1% down next day
Multichain (MULTI) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DeBox (BOX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DEAPcoin (DEP) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) 0.2% of circ. +15.5% +45.9% +6.1% up next day
Aladdin DAO (ALD) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ren (REN) 0.2% of circ. +62.6% +51.1% +23.5% up next day
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 0.3% of circ. −23.5% −25.4% −32.3% down next day
Tarot (TAROT) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Marinade (MNDE) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pangolin (PNG) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Spell Token (SPELL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BENQI (QI) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BabySwap (BABY) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Iron Fish (IRON) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tokemak (TOKE) 3.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LFJ (JOE) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BiFi (BIFI) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Origin Protocol (OGN) 0.2% of circ. +7.3% +0.0% −1.0% up next day
Alethea Artificial Liquid Intelligence Token (ALI) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pangolin (PNG) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 1.4% of circ. −5.5% −15.8% −15.9% down next day
TrueFi (TRU) 1.4% of circ. −5.5% −15.8% −15.9% down next day
Bone ShibaSwap (BONE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Spell Token (SPELL) 1.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wilder World (WILD) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ethernity Chain (ERN) 0.4% of circ. +4.4% +50.8% +25.2% up next day
DEAPcoin (DEP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 0.4% of circ. +18.2% +271.1% +245.3% up next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.4% of circ. +18.2% +271.1% +245.3% up next day
Stake DAO (SDT) 1.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) 0.6% of circ. +12.4% +119.5% +97.6% up next day
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 0.3% of circ. −4.1% −42.3% +0.9% down next day
Liquity (LQTY) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Cryptex (CTX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BarnBridge (BOND) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
MDEX (HECO) (MDX) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 1.0% of circ. +7.6% −3.1% +0.9% up next day
INV (INV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ren (REN) 0.2% of circ. +3.0% −12.8% −6.1% up next day
Perle (PRL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BiFi (BIFI) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 0.6% of circ. +12.2% +31.7% +33.2% up next day
Sushi (SUSHI) 0.2% of circ. −13.0% −30.6% −34.5% down next day
Siren (SIREN) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) 0.3% of circ. +5.4% +25.9% +22.0% up next day
MyShell (SHELL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pangolin (PNG) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
StakeWise (SWISE) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
StakeWise (SWISE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) 0.2% of circ. +9.9% −42.7% −39.5% up next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pangolin (PNG) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 0.2% of circ. +0.2% −6.6% −26.9% sideways next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.2% of circ. +0.2% −6.6% −26.9% sideways next day
Bancor (BNT) 0.2% of circ. +1.0% +119.8% +102.2% up next day
DODO (DODO) 0.2% of circ. — −34.2% −57.2% not measured yet
Loopring (LRC) 0.2% of circ. +7.1% +13.0% −28.4% up next day
BarnBridge (BOND) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
MDEX (HECO) (MDX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BarnBridge (BOND) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BarnBridge (BOND) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 0.2% of circ. −4.7% +51.0% +44.4% down next day
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Loopring (LRC) 0.3% of circ. +78.5% +105.7% +91.7% up next day
2020
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bancor (BNT) 0.2% of circ. −20.1% −4.8% −94.0% down next day
BarnBridge (BOND) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 2.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kava Lend (HARD) 0.5% of circ. −20.3% +37.5% +6.6% down next day
Sushi (SUSHI) 0.2% of circ. −13.6% +102.5% +66.1% down next day
Loopring (LRC) 0.2% of circ. −15.5% −21.1% −39.0% down next day
HEGIC (HEGIC) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Keep Network (KEEP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Balancer (BAL) 0.2% of circ. −4.9% −46.8% −34.7% down next day
Balancer (BAL) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 130 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answered from this count

What does the 45% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 59 of the 130 measured past cases of tVL surges of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 38% to 53% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 130.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 44% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 48% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 407 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every TVL surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.