How often it went up176 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
TVL crashes of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 176 of the 379 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 74 of those 176 closed higher — a base rate of 42%, with a 90% range of 36% to 48%, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- By day 30, 54 of the 177 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (31%).
- The typical day-30 move was −13.2%, the best +1679.2% and the worst −95.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −8.2% vs BTC and beat it in 31.1% of 177 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 41% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- yesterday · B2 Bsquared Network 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL crash can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL crashes of micro-cap tokens →
Every past case379 cases
Every past TVL crash behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 379 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Bsquared Network (B2) | — | — | in 29 days | in 29 days | not measured yet | |
| Lombard (BARD) | — | +1.7% | −14.5% | −12.0% | up next day | |
| SaucerSwap (SAUCE) | — | −0.5% | −4.9% | −4.5% | sideways next day | |
| Moss Coin (MOC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PumpBTC (PUMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Resolv (RESOLV) | — | −2.8% | −27.3% | −32.0% | down next day | |
| GAIB (GAIB) | — | +0.7% | +11.2% | +6.6% | sideways next day | |
| Avalon (AVL) | — | −4.6% | −16.2% | −23.7% | down next day | |
| SSV Network (SSV) | — | −7.1% | −2.8% | −8.2% | down next day | |
| Taiko (TAIKO) | — | −10.5% | +18.4% | +16.2% | down next day | |
| River (RIVER) | — | −16.6% | −34.5% | −36.2% | down next day | |
| Lombard (BARD) | — | −6.2% | −23.2% | −20.5% | down next day | |
| Resolv (RESOLV) | — | −2.2% | +13.4% | +14.9% | down next day | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | +5.0% | −23.0% | −23.9% | up next day | |
| Marinade (MNDE) | — | −0.4% | +2.8% | +2.6% | sideways next day | |
| Hyperlane (HYPER) | — | +6.0% | +4.9% | +1.0% | up next day | |
| Frankencoin (ZCHF) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Treehouse (TREE) | — | −0.4% | −3.4% | −8.2% | sideways next day | |
| Bluefin (BLUE) | — | +5.6% | +2.8% | −2.1% | up next day | |
| Clearpool (CPOOL) | — | +2.2% | −36.5% | −18.5% | up next day | |
| River (RIVER) | — | +1.5% | −43.7% | −25.7% | up next day | |
| Unitas (UP) | — | +11.5% | +2.2% | +21.2% | up next day | |
| GAIB (GAIB) | — | −2.8% | −14.8% | +4.2% | down next day | |
| Stake DAO (SDT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aquarius (AQUA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Dolomite (DOLO) | — | +1.1% | −4.5% | −23.7% | up next day | |
| Alchemix (ALCX) | — | +1.4% | +7.4% | −11.9% | up next day | |
| Dogelon Mars (ELON) | — | +0.2% | +6.5% | −10.9% | sideways next day | |
| Drift Protocol (DRIFT) | — | +15.2% | −6.4% | −23.8% | up next day | |
| Hyperion (RION) | — | −17.1% | −41.6% | −56.2% | down next day | |
| GRVT Token (GRVT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| River (RIVER) | — | −8.0% | −77.4% | −88.1% | down next day | |
| Frankencoin (ZCHF) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Thena (THE) | — | +0.7% | −30.5% | −36.8% | sideways next day | |
| Babylon (BABY) | — | −12.1% | −2.1% | −2.4% | down next day | |
| Opinion (OPN) | — | +0.7% | −42.9% | −46.9% | sideways next day | |
| River (RIVER) | — | −25.0% | −27.0% | −34.0% | down next day | |
| NAVI Protocol (NAVX) | — | −1.9% | −1.5% | −2.6% | down next day | |
| Zeus Network (ZEUS) | — | −6.6% | −24.7% | −25.8% | down next day | |
| INV (INV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Canopy (CNPY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Opinion (OPN) | — | +6.2% | −61.6% | −65.1% | up next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −2.0% | −6.8% | −8.2% | down next day | |
| Power Protocol (POWER) | — | +4.8% | −95.5% | −93.3% | up next day | |
| Frankencoin (ZCHF) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Comtech Gold (CGO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Superform (UP) | — | +11.3% | +62.3% | +61.0% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) | — | −4.1% | −7.2% | −10.9% | down next day | |
| SaucerSwap (SAUCE) | — | −4.1% | +33.8% | +28.0% | down next day | |
| Wirex Token (WXT) | — | −1.5% | −0.8% | −6.6% | down next day | |
| Beefy (BIFI) | — | −1.2% | −9.0% | −14.9% | down next day | |
| Unitas (UP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| RateX (RTX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gravity (G) | — | −3.6% | −15.9% | −12.8% | down next day | |
| Canopy (CNPY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wirex Token (WXT) | — | −0.1% | +2.6% | +5.6% | sideways next day | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | −6.2% | −5.1% | −2.0% | down next day | |
| Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) | — | +1.7% | +2.2% | −2.7% | up next day | |
| Gearbox (GEAR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| RateX (RTX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zircuit (ZRC) | — | −1.1% | −5.5% | +12.8% | down next day | |
| Lombard (BARD) | — | −18.1% | +30.1% | +52.4% | down next day | |
| SaucerSwap (SAUCE) | — | −12.3% | −4.3% | +17.9% | down next day | |
| Hyperion (RION) | — | −10.9% | −25.4% | −3.1% | down next day | |
| Badger (BADGER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) | — | +16.0% | −29.6% | −1.7% | up next day | |
| Canopy (CNPY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| TermMax (TMX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| River (RIVER) | — | +12.5% | +1679.2% | +1677.5% | up next day | |
| River (RIVER) | — | −48.2% | +265.2% | +255.3% | down next day | |
| ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) | — | +1.2% | −1.8% | −11.8% | up next day | |
| Solayer (LAYER) | — | −6.7% | −14.3% | −20.0% | down next day | |
| ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) | — | −1.0% | +4.1% | +4.7% | down next day | |
| Hemi (HEMI) | — | +7.5% | +22.6% | +24.0% | up next day | |
| Momentum (MMT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zerobase (ZBT) | — | +0.6% | −5.4% | −2.5% | sideways next day | |
| Opinion (OPN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| River (RIVER) | — | +1.5% | +31.7% | +29.4% | up next day | |
| Zeus Network (ZEUS) | — | −8.9% | −45.2% | −41.7% | down next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | −13.6% | −5.1% | +0.1% | down next day | |
| NAVI Protocol (NAVX) | — | −34.9% | −49.3% | −42.0% | down next day | |
| Hemi (HEMI) | — | −7.4% | −46.3% | −37.7% | down next day | |
| AdEx (ADX) | — | +0.2% | −25.0% | −13.4% | sideways next day | |
| Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) | — | −26.7% | −50.0% | −38.8% | down next day | |
| Opinion (OPN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gearbox (GEAR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| AdEx (ADX) | — | +4.5% | −20.0% | −5.9% | up next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | +3.5% | −11.8% | +2.3% | up next day | |
| GoPlus (GPS) | — | +2.7% | +9.2% | +21.2% | up next day | |
| Aura (AURA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Smooth Love Potion (SLP) | — | +1.8% | −15.9% | +0.7% | up next day | |
| Momentum (MMT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Mitosis (MITO) | — | +10.1% | −31.3% | −17.9% | up next day | |
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | — | +31.0% | +44.9% | not measured yet | |
| TermMax (TMX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| LFJ (JOE) | — | +8.9% | −21.5% | −26.6% | up next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kava Lend (HARD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cellframe (CELL) | — | −4.2% | +5.4% | −4.1% | down next day | |
| Flamingo Finance (FLM) | — | −6.1% | −15.2% | −20.0% | down next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SynFutures (F) | — | −4.9% | +82.8% | +83.0% | down next day | |
| Hemi (HEMI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| KiloEx (KILO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Avalon (AVL) | — | −5.8% | +4.8% | −18.9% | down next day | |
| Zircuit (ZRC) | — | −17.7% | +29.5% | +16.6% | down next day | |
| pSTAKE Finance (PSTAKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| WOO (WOO) | — | −9.6% | +2.4% | −11.4% | down next day | |
| Corn (CORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Spell Token (SPELL) | — | −5.1% | −4.0% | −12.9% | down next day | |
| AdEx (ADX) | — | −0.8% | −23.4% | −24.5% | sideways next day | |
| Lombard (BARD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Access Protocol (ACS) | — | −3.1% | −23.3% | −21.3% | down next day | |
| Hemi (HEMI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| NKYC (NKYC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Comtech Gold (CGO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gearbox (GEAR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SynFutures (F) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Suilend (SEND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| pSTAKE Finance (PSTAKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| GRVT Token (GRVT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Corn (CORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zircuit (ZRC) | — | −6.8% | −19.6% | −16.9% | down next day | |
| STBL (STBL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeX Token (APEX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zircuit (ZRC) | — | −9.8% | −13.9% | −2.7% | down next day | |
| Clearpool (CPOOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| RateX (RTX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Perle (PRL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Clearpool (CPOOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bluefin (BLUE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Enzyme (MLN) | — | −5.5% | −29.7% | −36.0% | down next day | |
| Corn (CORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MCDEX (MCB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PumpBTC (PUMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bsquared Network (B2) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| RCH Token (RCH) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aura (AURA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| HTX (HTX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Yelay (YLAY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Dogelon Mars (ELON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Citrea (CTR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | −0.1% | −13.7% | −19.2% | sideways next day | |
| Citrea (CTR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orderly Network (ORDER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bluefin (BLUE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sonic SVM (SONIC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ALEX Lab (ALEX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ren (REN) | — | +3.4% | −3.7% | −12.3% | up next day | |
| Arai (AA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MYX Finance (MYX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Yelay (YLAY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Spell Token (SPELL) | — | −2.6% | +4.6% | −0.5% | down next day | |
| Taiko (TAIKO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Marinade (MNDE) | — | +9.0% | −9.4% | −20.7% | up next day | |
| Stake DAO (SDT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| LATOKEN (LA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| pSTAKE Finance (PSTAKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ankr (ANKR) | — | −0.6% | +2.0% | −0.9% | sideways next day | |
| Sonic SVM (SONIC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| ALEX Lab (ALEX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Chromia (CHR) | — | +4.7% | +8.4% | +7.7% | up next day | |
| Aura (AURA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −3.5% | −13.2% | −13.7% | down next day | |
| Spark (SPK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Multichain (MULTI) | — | +1.2% | −19.5% | −8.2% | up next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | −3.4% | −18.5% | −7.5% | down next day | |
| Perpetual Protocol (PERP) | — | −1.3% | −19.6% | −6.5% | down next day | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Origin Protocol (OGN) | — | −2.9% | −22.5% | −26.9% | down next day | |
| MDEX (HECO) (MDX) | — | +1.8% | −11.8% | −7.9% | up next day | |
| Delysium (AGI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Access Protocol (ACS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| AUSD (AUSD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Origin Protocol (OGN) | — | +13.6% | +23.7% | −23.9% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | −0.3% | −21.2% | −20.7% | sideways next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | −0.3% | −21.2% | −20.7% | sideways next day | |
| Lista DAO (LISTA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tokemak (TOKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −2.1% | −25.8% | −22.1% | down next day | |
| Loopring (LRC) | — | +5.1% | −9.5% | −16.1% | up next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ren (REN) | — | +3.5% | +10.8% | +1.8% | up next day | |
| Badger (BADGER) | — | −1.2% | +3.2% | −2.6% | down next day | |
| Yelay (YLAY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tokemak (TOKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) | — | −8.2% | +10.9% | +13.9% | down next day | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Spell Token (SPELL) | — | +13.2% | +3.6% | −3.9% | up next day | |
| Marinade (MNDE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | +12.9% | +16.3% | +8.7% | up next day | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | +18.5% | — | — | up next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | +12.9% | +16.3% | +8.7% | up next day | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Clearpool (CPOOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Hashflow (HFT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| LFJ (JOE) | — | −5.0% | −12.7% | −8.2% | down next day | |
| DAO Maker Token (DAO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| pSTAKE Finance (PSTAKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Clearpool (CPOOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tokemak (TOKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stake DAO (SDT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | −9.2% | −15.9% | −10.2% | down next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | −9.2% | −15.9% | −10.2% | down next day | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | +0.3% | −14.9% | −2.9% | sideways next day | |
| Clearpool (CPOOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tribe (TRIBE) | — | +13.7% | −10.0% | −8.0% | up next day | |
| Alchemix (ALCX) | — | −0.4% | −15.4% | −10.6% | sideways next day | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | +2.1% | −14.7% | −4.0% | up next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | +2.1% | −14.7% | −4.0% | up next day | |
| Tokemak (TOKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | −2.9% | +28.0% | +7.3% | down next day | |
| Channels (CAN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Clearpool (CPOOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tribe (TRIBE) | — | −1.9% | −2.5% | −15.1% | down next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Spell Token (SPELL) | — | +6.7% | +43.5% | +30.6% | up next day | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | −2.6% | +21.0% | +19.0% | down next day | |
| Harvest Finance (FARM) | — | +4.1% | +42.1% | +48.2% | up next day | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | −8.6% | +36.0% | +42.1% | down next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | −8.6% | +36.0% | +42.1% | down next day | |
| Clearpool (CPOOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Keep Network (KEEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Loopring (LRC) | — | −4.2% | −0.8% | +5.1% | down next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) | — | −12.5% | +7.1% | +13.0% | down next day | |
| Tarot (TAROT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tribe (TRIBE) | — | −12.3% | −27.9% | −4.0% | down next day | |
| Enzyme (MLN) | — | −14.8% | −7.0% | +25.0% | down next day | |
| Tokemak (TOKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Harvest Finance (FARM) | — | −11.5% | −17.2% | +20.0% | down next day | |
| Keep Network (KEEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | +1.2% | −19.4% | +10.2% | up next day | |
| Ren (REN) | — | +3.2% | −25.3% | +8.7% | up next day | |
| Badger (BADGER) | — | +6.6% | −40.5% | −7.7% | up next day | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | −4.6% | −40.6% | −7.8% | down next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | −4.6% | −40.6% | −7.8% | down next day | |
| Clearpool (CPOOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Access Protocol (ACS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kava Lend (HARD) | — | +100.0% | +15.9% | +39.1% | up next day | |
| Bancor (BNT) | — | +5.9% | −25.7% | −17.3% | up next day | |
| BENQI (QI) | — | +14.0% | +44.9% | +53.3% | up next day | |
| Spell Token (SPELL) | — | +9.8% | −33.3% | −24.9% | up next day | |
| Origin Protocol (OGN) | — | +20.9% | +7.4% | +15.8% | up next day | |
| LFJ (JOE) | — | +19.7% | −47.9% | −39.5% | up next day | |
| Marinade (MNDE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Drift Protocol (DRIFT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Flamingo Finance (FLM) | — | +14.0% | +85.1% | +93.5% | up next day | |
| BabySwap (BABY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| INV (INV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Beefy (BIFI) | — | +12.8% | +35.2% | +43.6% | up next day | |
| XMAQUINA (DEUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tokemak (TOKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Goldfinch (GFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tarot (TAROT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| pSTAKE Finance (PSTAKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DAO Maker Token (DAO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Osmosis (OSMO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pangolin (PNG) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stader (SD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | −28.8% | −35.3% | −29.1% | down next day | |
| Darkweb Metaverse (DARK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ren (REN) | — | −8.7% | −46.6% | −33.7% | down next day | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | −4.6% | −48.0% | −26.7% | down next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | −4.6% | −48.0% | −26.7% | down next day | |
| Darkweb Metaverse (DARK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tarot (TAROT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | −4.8% | −46.3% | −23.8% | down next day | |
| XMAQUINA (DEUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Goldfinch (GFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| WOO (WOO) | — | +1.0% | −54.9% | −30.1% | sideways next day | |
| Bone ShibaSwap (BONE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | −3.8% | −47.3% | −17.7% | down next day | |
| Channels (CAN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | −3.8% | −47.3% | −17.7% | down next day | |
| Goldfinch (GFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Badger (BADGER) | — | +2.4% | −52.4% | −25.5% | up next day | |
| Channels (CAN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Channels (CAN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Goldfinch (GFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | −3.8% | +12.3% | +0.6% | down next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | −3.8% | +12.3% | +0.6% | down next day | |
| Channels (CAN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synapse (SYN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Celer Network (CELR) | — | −4.3% | −28.9% | −31.6% | down next day | |
| Tribe (TRIBE) | — | −5.1% | −19.8% | −22.6% | down next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Beefy (BIFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tarot (TAROT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | −22.5% | −24.0% | −20.2% | down next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | −22.5% | −24.0% | −20.2% | down next day | |
| Aladdin DAO (ALD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SpaceChain (SPC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| INV (INV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aladdin DAO (ALD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Flamingo Finance (FLM) | — | +0.3% | −30.8% | −12.9% | sideways next day | |
| Wilder World (WILD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Channels (CAN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Flamingo Finance (FLM) | — | +7.2% | −13.3% | −2.0% | up next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Perpetual Protocol (PERP) | — | −2.0% | −6.7% | +5.2% | down next day | |
| Channels (CAN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DEAPcoin (DEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Perle (PRL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | +4.9% | −16.1% | −4.0% | up next day | |
| Celer Network (CELR) | — | −13.2% | −3.3% | +3.5% | down next day | |
| Goldfinch (GFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Channels (CAN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | +2.4% | −22.9% | −11.2% | up next day | |
| Alethea Artificial Liquid Intelligence Token (ALI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) | — | +88.7% | −4.0% | +15.2% | up next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BarnBridge (BOND) | — | +9.2% | +19.5% | −24.3% | up next day | |
| MAGIC (MAGIC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MyShell (SHELL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| HEGIC (HEGIC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Osmosis (OSMO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bone ShibaSwap (BONE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Iron Fish (IRON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Illuvium (ILV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Loopring (LRC) | — | −1.1% | +20.1% | −16.7% | down next day | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | +2.0% | +223.0% | +186.2% | up next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | +2.0% | +223.0% | +186.2% | up next day | |
| Spell Token (SPELL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Flamingo Finance (FLM) | — | +3.4% | −0.8% | −3.0% | up next day | |
| Beefy (BIFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BabySwap (BABY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DEAPcoin (DEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +5.2% | −19.6% | −17.9% | up next day | |
| Loopring (LRC) | — | +14.7% | −13.3% | −17.1% | up next day | |
| Channels (CAN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | −26.8% | −44.4% | −32.2% | down next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MDEX (HECO) (MDX) | — | — | −0.1% | +12.0% | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Loopring (LRC) | — | −22.5% | −33.3% | −21.2% | down next day | |
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Enzyme (MLN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tribe (TRIBE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ankr (ANKR) | — | +12.0% | −33.9% | −30.6% | up next day | |
| Bancor (BNT) | — | −4.4% | −27.7% | −24.4% | down next day | |
| Perle (PRL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Keep Network (KEEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −9.7% | −10.9% | −7.6% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −2.4% | −44.1% | −40.8% | down next day | |
| Pangolin (PNG) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Access Protocol (ACS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stake DAO (SDT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| StakeWise (SWISE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| HEGIC (HEGIC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cryptex (CTX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | −41.0% | −55.8% | −43.3% | down next day | |
| Badger (BADGER) | — | −8.0% | −54.6% | −33.1% | down next day | |
| Cryptex (CTX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| INV (INV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Core DAO (CORE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | −24.6% | −69.1% | −79.6% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −3.4% | −27.8% | −31.1% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 176 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 42% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 74 of the 176 measured past cases of tVL crashes of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 36% to 48% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 176.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 41% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 379 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every TVL crash with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.