PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · TVL crashs · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-24

TVL crashes of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: all 197 measured cases

TVL crash category · otherbtc trend · up⚠ flipped on recent cases 432 cases on record last 5 cases: 1 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a TVL crash?

higher the next day

53%

105 of 197 past cases

53% of past cases were higher (90% range 47-59%)

90% range 47%–59%

higher after 30 days

37%

70 of 188 cases measured after 30 days

37% of past cases were higher (90% range 32-43%)

90% range 32%–43% · typical move −5.8%

typical next day
+0.3%
typical after 30 days
−5.8%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−10.2%
best after 30 days
+310.1%
worst after 30 days
−58.0%
30 days: up · sideways · down
56 · 37 · 95

⚠ recent-cases check · flipped: 48% → 61% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

TVL DROPall TVL crashes against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
−3−9…+3
7 days
−4−10…+2
30 days
−6−11…0

After TVL crashes, the price was higher 30 days later in 33% of 350 cases on 263 separate days, against 39% of the same coins' ordinary days: −6 points (95% range −11 to 0; older half −9, newer half −3).

Every past TVL crash, 30 days on 188 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 49 rose · ▼ 88 fell · ◆ 51 sideways (±8.8% over 30 days)

Each line is one past TVL crash: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 188 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

TVL crashes of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 197 of the 432 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 105 of those 197 closed higher — a base rate of 53%, with a 90% range of 47% to 59%, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up197 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

TVL crashes of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 197 of the 432 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 105 of those 197 closed higher — a base rate of 53%, with a 90% range of 47% to 59%, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.

  • By day 30, 70 of the 188 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (37%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −5.8%, the best +310.1% and the worst −58.0%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −10.2% vs BTC and beat it in 30.3% of 188 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 48% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 61% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • 6 days ago · DOLO Dolomite next day −3.1% · 30 days lands
  • 6 days ago · UNI Uniswap next day +2.3% · 30 days lands
  • 7 days ago · G Gravity next day −5.7% · 30 days lands
  • 7 days ago · HEMI Hemi next day −5.2% · 30 days lands
  • 7 days ago · CHIP USD.AI next day −11.8% · 30 days lands
  • 8 days ago · PLSX PulseX 30 days lands

NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL crash can be matched to this pattern before it happens.

Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL crashes of tokens outside the big categories →

Every past case432 cases

Every past TVL crash behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 432 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

432 past cases of tvl crashes of tokens outside the big categories with btc above its 50-day average, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Dolomite (DOLO) — −3.1% in 24 days in 24 days down next day
Uniswap (UNI) — +2.3% in 24 days in 24 days up next day
Gravity (G) — −5.7% in 23 days in 23 days down next day
Hemi (HEMI) — −5.2% in 23 days in 23 days down next day
USD.AI (CHIP) — −11.8% in 23 days in 23 days down next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — in 22 days in 22 days not measured yet
Cap (CAP) — −24.0% in 19 days in 19 days down next day
Stargate Finance (STG) — — in 16 days in 16 days not measured yet
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) — — in 15 days in 15 days not measured yet
Blast Token (BLAST) — +16.1% in 10 days in 10 days up next day
Orderly Network (ORDER) — −2.0% in 9 days in 9 days down next day
Stargate Finance (STG) — +0.7% in 7 days in 7 days sideways next day
Gravity (G) — −2.6% in 6 days in 6 days down next day
Gains Network (GNS) — −4.6% in 6 days in 6 days down next day
USD.AI (CHIP) — +1.8% tomorrow tomorrow up next day
Frankencoin (ZCHF) — — — — not measured yet
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +6.8% −16.9% −11.1% up next day
Bluefin (BLUE) — −0.0% −13.0% −16.6% sideways next day
Grove Finance (GROVE) — +1.8% −24.1% −31.6% up next day
Puffer (PUFFER) — 0.0% +30.9% +23.3% sideways next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
Veranta (AVNT) — −7.1% +32.0% +26.7% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
Moonwell (WELL) — −5.3% −19.8% −27.1% down next day
Power Protocol (POWER) — +1.8% +49.5% +37.6% up next day
Solstice (SLX) — −2.7% +1.0% −10.9% down next day
DoubleZero (2Z) — +14.0% −1.2% −18.4% up next day
Sushi (SUSHI) — −0.9% +34.4% +13.0% sideways next day
SaucerSwap (SAUCE) — +0.5% +11.3% −10.5% sideways next day
Avalon (AVL) — −2.7% −8.5% −27.9% down next day
Wormhole (W) — −0.7% +1.9% −14.7% sideways next day
Cetus Protocol (CETUS) — −6.3% +35.0% +18.4% down next day
PumpBTC (PUMP) — — — — not measured yet
USD.AI (CHIP) — −4.1% +6.5% −11.2% down next day
Veranta (AVNT) — −2.1% +2.8% +1.9% down next day
Bsquared Network (B2) — −19.6% −13.9% +1.4% down next day
Meteora (MET) — +4.9% −3.8% +13.5% up next day
Marinade (MNDE) — −0.7% −8.4% +8.9% sideways next day
MYX Finance (MYX) — −10.7% −17.2% −1.0% down next day
Resolv (RESOLV) — +1.7% −51.9% −30.8% up next day
SUN (SUN) — +1.8% −15.1% +8.4% up next day
Renzo (REZ) — +14.0% −46.2% −24.9% up next day
GAIB (GAIB) — +1.2% −9.0% −4.1% up next day
River (RIVER) — +0.1% −1.5% −1.3% sideways next day
Spell Token (SPELL) — +0.2% −3.6% −1.8% sideways next day
Euler (EUL) — +9.7% −1.3% −3.7% up next day
Dolomite (DOLO) — +0.7% −3.6% −5.9% sideways next day
Treehouse (TREE) — +0.9% −1.9% −4.3% sideways next day
TermMax (TMX) — — — — not measured yet
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +6.2% +3.3% −6.9% up next day
USD.AI (CHIP) — — — — not measured yet
Resolv (RESOLV) — +3.6% −15.5% −27.0% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — +4.6% +23.4% +3.2% up next day
Fluid (FLUID) — −2.1% −6.0% −16.4% down next day
DoubleZero (2Z) — +5.1% +13.8% −1.4% up next day
River (RIVER) — +53.6% −50.1% −21.0% up next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
USDD (USDD) — 0.0% +0.0% +22.6% sideways next day
River (RIVER) — +55.3% +13.4% +33.5% up next day
Ankr (ANKR) — +2.2% −24.0% −11.5% up next day
2025
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) — +0.6% −24.2% −12.6% sideways next day
Zeus Network (ZEUS) — −11.1% −58.0% −46.5% down next day
Immutable X (IMX) — +29.9% −11.1% −4.2% up next day
Wormhole (W) — +21.9% −15.4% −8.6% up next day
Astar (ASTR) — +13.3% −18.9% −12.0% up next day
VVS Finance (VVS) — +12.2% −19.9% −13.0% up next day
Momentum (MMT) — — — — not measured yet
Teller (DEBIT) — — — — not measured yet
Gravity (G) — +12.4% −16.1% −9.2% up next day
Metis Token (METIS) — +21.6% +3.1% +10.0% up next day
BENQI (QI) — +19.9% −17.7% −10.8% up next day
Origin Protocol (OGN) — +16.3% −9.3% −2.4% up next day
LFJ (JOE) — +21.4% −4.5% +2.4% up next day
STBL (STBL) — +21.3% −25.5% −18.6% up next day
EVAA Protocol (EVAA) — +23.6% −11.1% −4.2% up next day
Kava Lend (HARD) — — — — not measured yet
Suilend (SEND) — — — — not measured yet
Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) — +17.0% −25.0% −18.2% up next day
Cellframe (CELL) — +12.6% −4.6% +2.2% up next day
Polkadot (DOT) — +12.6% +1.9% +8.8% up next day
CoW Protocol Token (COW) — +6.2% −30.8% −13.7% up next day
Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) — — — — not measured yet
Kava Lend (HARD) — — — — not measured yet
Mitosis (MITO) — +14.7% −30.2% −23.0% up next day
Mansory (MNSRY) — −0.3% −5.6% −1.2% sideways next day
Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) — — — — not measured yet
HEGIC (HEGIC) — — — — not measured yet
Veranta (AVNT) — +24.4% −27.9% −24.0% up next day
LAB (LAB) — — — — not measured yet
BOB (Build on Bitcoin) (BOB) — — — — not measured yet
Mitosis (MITO) — +46.6% −40.7% −40.0% up next day
Zircuit (ZRC) — −7.8% −11.0% −10.2% down next day
LAB (LAB) — — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) — +5.7% +12.1% +14.7% up next day
SynFutures (F) — −9.8% +178.3% +184.3% down next day
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) — −13.8% +8.8% +12.2% down next day
PumpBTC (PUMP) — — — — not measured yet
Zest Protocol (ZEST) — — — — not measured yet
Cellframe (CELL) — +1.5% −21.5% −18.0% up next day
Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) — — — — not measured yet
Puffer (PUFFER) — −7.2% −0.7% +5.8% down next day
LAB (LAB) — — — — not measured yet
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) — +0.9% +6.8% +13.2% sideways next day
River (RIVER) — — — — not measured yet
Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) — — — — not measured yet
Avalon (AVL) — −1.9% +2.5% +4.0% down next day
SynFutures (F) — +1.3% −10.3% −10.0% up next day
USDD (USDD) — −0.1% −0.1% +1.2% sideways next day
Spell Token (SPELL) — −0.5% +7.5% +4.7% sideways next day
Thena (THE) — +16.7% +69.1% +62.0% up next day
USDD (USDD) — −0.0% +0.0% −5.5% sideways next day
Biconomy (BICO) — −5.3% +5.4% +1.2% down next day
MCDEX (MCB) — — — — not measured yet
Maverick Token (MAV) — −13.7% −13.7% −17.1% down next day
Hemi (HEMI) — — — — not measured yet
Flamingo Finance (FLM) — +5.9% −0.6% −12.3% up next day
Ankr (ANKR) — −4.6% +18.9% +8.0% down next day
USDD (USDD) — +0.0% −0.0% −12.4% sideways next day
StakeStone (STO) — −0.3% +48.3% +36.0% sideways next day
Canopy (CNPY) — — — — not measured yet
DeGate (DG) — — — — not measured yet
Flamingo Finance (FLM) — −2.3% −1.6% −14.0% down next day
KiloEx (KILO) — — — — not measured yet
MX Token (MX) — +0.3% −8.6% −11.8% sideways next day
Manta Network (MANTA) — +3.1% −18.8% −22.6% up next day
Dogelon Mars (ELON) — −3.8% −10.4% −14.2% down next day
StakeStone (STO) — +1.1% −21.4% −25.2% up next day
MegaUSD (USDM) — — — — not measured yet
River (RIVER) — — — — not measured yet
JUST (JST) — −0.7% +1.5% −0.9% sideways next day
PumpBTC (PUMP) — — — — not measured yet
Hemi (HEMI) — — — — not measured yet
UniCrypt (UNCX) — — — — not measured yet
LAB (LAB) — — — — not measured yet
Cellframe (CELL) — +8.3% −7.8% −10.8% up next day
SmarDex (SDEX) — — — — not measured yet
MegaUSD (USDM) — — — — not measured yet
Maverick Token (MAV) — −5.2% −33.5% −31.7% down next day
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) — +4.5% −20.6% −18.8% up next day
Momentum (MMT) — — — — not measured yet
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) — +3.2% −37.0% −35.1% up next day
Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) — −6.2% −11.8% −10.0% down next day
Cetus Protocol (CETUS) — −5.6% −51.1% −41.5% down next day
LAB (LAB) — — — — not measured yet
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
Hyperion (RION) — — — — not measured yet
MegaUSD (USDM) — — — — not measured yet
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) — −3.7% −33.4% −35.2% down next day
Threshold Network (T) — −9.4% −25.8% −27.7% down next day
Canopy (CNPY) — — — — not measured yet
StakeStone (STO) — −5.5% −35.6% −39.9% down next day
Dolomite (DOLO) — −2.9% −23.6% −28.8% down next day
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) — +19.8% −9.1% −17.8% up next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) — — — — not measured yet
KiloEx (KILO) — — — — not measured yet
MegaUSD (USDM) — — — — not measured yet
Zest Protocol (ZEST) — — — — not measured yet
Canopy (CNPY) — — — — not measured yet
ApeX Token (APEX) — — — — not measured yet
Ronin Token (RON) — — — — not measured yet
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) — — — — not measured yet
Babylon (BABY) — −2.6% +14.6% −10.7% down next day
pSTAKE Finance (PSTAKE) — — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) — +2.0% −3.7% +3.5% up next day
Clearpool (CPOOL) — — — — not measured yet
Aquarius (AQUA) — — — — not measured yet
ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) — +1.7% −37.9% −35.0% up next day
2024
Solv Protocol (SOLV) — — — — not measured yet
BOB (Build on Bitcoin) (BOB) — — — — not measured yet
BiFi (BIFI) — — — — not measured yet
Metis Token (METIS) — +11.9% −26.3% −24.4% up next day
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) — — — — not measured yet
Sonic SVM (SONIC) — — — — not measured yet
BOB (Build on Bitcoin) (BOB) — — — — not measured yet
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) — — — — not measured yet
UniCrypt (UNCX) — — — — not measured yet
LAB (LAB) — — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) — +7.0% +57.6% +40.4% up next day
Aster (ASTER) — — — — not measured yet
Puffer (PUFFER) — — — — not measured yet
Resolv (RESOLV) — — — — not measured yet
Ren (REN) — −8.4% +39.2% +6.0% down next day
Raydium (RAY) — +9.0% +82.8% +45.7% up next day
LAB (LAB) — — — — not measured yet
Sky (SKY) — — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) — — — — not measured yet
MDEX (HECO) (MDX) — — — — not measured yet
Ren (REN) — +7.1% +13.5% −19.7% up next day
LAB (LAB) — — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) — — — — not measured yet
Flamingo Finance (FLM) — −1.6% +3.7% −10.6% down next day
Resolv (RESOLV) — — — — not measured yet
Perle (PRL) — — — — not measured yet
Ren (REN) — −8.2% −13.3% −23.8% down next day
MCDEX (MCB) — — — — not measured yet
Onyxcoin (XCN) — — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) — — — — not measured yet
Perle (PRL) — — — — not measured yet
SynFutures (F) — — — — not measured yet
Suilend (SEND) — — — — not measured yet
RCH Token (RCH) — — — — not measured yet
LFJ (JOE) — +6.6% +1.5% +3.4% up next day
Clearpool (CPOOL) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Core DAO (CORE) — — — — not measured yet
Frankencoin (ZCHF) — — — — not measured yet
Aura (AURA) — — — — not measured yet
Badger (BADGER) — −5.8% −13.6% −11.8% down next day
Sushi (SUSHI) — +2.6% −18.5% −16.5% up next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) — — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) — — — — not measured yet
LFJ (JOE) — −6.2% −22.8% −9.5% down next day
Loopring (LRC) — −0.9% −32.0% −14.5% sideways next day
Synapse (SYN) — −6.9% −24.4% −7.2% down next day
Liquity (LQTY) — −7.3% −38.6% −20.5% down next day
Amp (AMP) — −1.4% −37.0% −19.9% down next day
Wormhole (W) — +5.7% −35.5% −27.4% up next day
UniCrypt (UNCX) — — — — not measured yet
MDEX (HECO) (MDX) — +2.5% −32.0% −21.2% up next day
EVAA Protocol (EVAA) — — — — not measured yet
WOO (WOO) — −4.3% −32.1% −20.0% down next day
AUSD (AUSD) — — — — not measured yet
MegaUSD (USDM) — — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
WOO (WOO) — +9.0% −33.0% −24.5% up next day
LAB (LAB) — — — — not measured yet
Uniswap (UNI) — +2.4% −30.3% −35.0% up next day
Sushi (SUSHI) — −2.9% −39.8% −35.6% down next day
IdleMine (IDLE) — — — — not measured yet
Pulsechain (PLS) — — — — not measured yet
Sonic SVM (SONIC) — — — — not measured yet
Tokemak (TOKE) — — — — not measured yet
Manta Network (MANTA) — +23.4% −3.6% −10.0% up next day
Blast Token (BLAST) — — — — not measured yet
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) — — — — not measured yet
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) — — — — not measured yet
Moss Coin (MOC) — — — — not measured yet
Kamino (KMNO) — — — — not measured yet
UniCrypt (UNCX) — — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) — — — — not measured yet
Goldfinch (GFI) — — −12.6% −10.1% not measured yet
Pulsechain (PLS) — — — — not measured yet
2023
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Cetus Protocol (CETUS) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
SUN (SUN) — −2.6% +24.8% +8.9% down next day
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) — +0.7% −2.8% −18.0% sideways next day
Bancor (BNT) — −1.7% −11.0% −29.0% down next day
Echelon Prime (PRIME) — — — — not measured yet
ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) — +2.2% +31.7% +21.1% up next day
Threshold Network (T) — +4.6% +7.4% −17.6% up next day
Bella Protocol (BEL) — +2.9% +5.9% −19.8% up next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) — +7.9% +31.9% +10.9% up next day
ALEX Lab (ALEX) — — — — not measured yet
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +1.4% +79.6% +69.7% up next day
Polkadot Token (DOT) — −3.6% +24.2% +14.6% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) — −2.8% +21.7% −7.2% down next day
Wormhole (W) — — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) — — — — not measured yet
yearn.finance (YFI) — −1.7% +28.7% −4.4% down next day
Folks Finance (FOLKS) — — — — not measured yet
Sushi (SUSHI) — −3.8% +80.4% +53.9% down next day
Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — — — — not measured yet
LFJ (JOE) — −6.8% +5.8% −20.7% down next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) — +2.8% −20.1% −8.9% up next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — −3.9% −14.8% −3.5% down next day
Citrea (CTR) — — — — not measured yet
Origin Protocol (OGN) — +1.5% −28.0% −16.7% up next day
Alchemix (ALCX) — −4.0% −11.2% +0.1% down next day
INV (INV) — — — — not measured yet
Tokemak (TOKE) — — — — not measured yet
Lista DAO (LISTA) — — — — not measured yet
Multichain (MULTI) — −10.3% −22.7% −15.9% down next day
Pulsechain (PLS) — — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) — — — — not measured yet
Verse World (VERSE) — — — — not measured yet
Arcium (ARX) — — — — not measured yet
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) — — — — not measured yet
Marinade (MNDE) — — — — not measured yet
Convex Finance (CVX) — 0.0% −14.9% −9.5% sideways next day
Delysium (AGI) — — — — not measured yet
Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — — — — not measured yet
Yelay (YLAY) — — — — not measured yet
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) — −10.6% −21.0% −9.5% down next day
SmarDex (SDEX) — — — — not measured yet
Euler (EUL) — — — — not measured yet
Kava Lend (HARD) — +2.7% −23.1% −11.8% up next day
BabySwap (BABY) — — — — not measured yet
Onyxcoin (XCN) — — — — not measured yet
Arcium (ARX) — — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) — — — — not measured yet
Orca (ORCA) — — — — not measured yet
Pulsechain (PLS) — — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) — +2.0% +1.1% −20.2% up next day
Euler (EUL) — — — — not measured yet
Reserve Rights (RSR) — −11.1% +10.7% −15.3% down next day
Morpho (MORPHO) — — — — not measured yet
Stargate Finance (STG) — +10.7% +10.3% −25.5% up next day
MegaETH (MEGA) — — — — not measured yet
Gearbox (GEAR) — — — — not measured yet
Echelon Prime (PRIME) — — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) — +12.7% +15.1% −20.8% up next day
Moonwell (WELL) — — — — not measured yet
Thena (THE) — — — — not measured yet
Hashflow (HFT) — +6.2% −12.8% −48.7% up next day
Aerodrome Finance (AERO) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) — — — — not measured yet
HEGIC (HEGIC) — — — — not measured yet
Stader (SD) — — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) — — — — not measured yet
XMAQUINA (DEUS) — — — — not measured yet
Keep Network (KEEP) — — — — not measured yet
Polkadot (DOT) — +4.6% −15.6% −10.3% up next day
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) — — — — not measured yet
Multichain (MULTI) — +23.2% +48.1% +33.0% up next day
Folks Finance (FOLKS) — — — — not measured yet
Lista DAO (LISTA) — — — — not measured yet
2022
Sushi (SUSHI) — −5.0% −30.7% −11.0% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
AUSD (AUSD) — — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) — +5.4% −15.2% −5.5% up next day
Moonwell (WELL) — — — — not measured yet
Stake DAO (SDT) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Moonwell (WELL) — — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) — −5.1% −17.9% −13.8% down next day
TrueFi (TRU) — −5.1% −17.9% −13.8% down next day
Perpetual Protocol (PERP) — −5.6% −17.4% −6.4% down next day
XMAQUINA (DEUS) — — — — not measured yet
Agora by Virtuals (AGORA) — — — — not measured yet
Origin Protocol (OGN) — −9.7% −21.1% −6.6% down next day
INV (INV) — — — — not measured yet
MyShell (SHELL) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
WOO (WOO) — +0.5% −22.7% −14.7% sideways next day
Serum (SRM) — −1.2% −25.3% −17.3% down next day
DODO (DODO) — +8.1% −2.6% −1.4% up next day
Goldfinch (GFI) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
2021
Goldfinch (GFI) — — — — not measured yet
Cronos (CRO) — — — — not measured yet
DEAPcoin (DEP) — — — — not measured yet
Wilder World (WILD) — — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) — — — — not measured yet
GMX (GMX) — — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) — +7.1% −27.7% −16.8% up next day
TrueFi (TRU) — +7.1% −27.7% −16.8% up next day
MAGIC (MAGIC) — — — — not measured yet
Goldfinch (GFI) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) — — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) — −4.1% −7.8% −11.0% down next day
Aladdin DAO (ALD) — — — — not measured yet
1INCH (1INCH) — −9.1% +38.6% +16.8% down next day
Serum (SRM) — −3.3% −4.3% −15.4% down next day
Collector Crypt (CARDS) — — — — not measured yet
BENQI (QI) — — — — not measured yet
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) — +2.5% +19.7% −5.1% up next day
IdleMine (IDLE) — — — — not measured yet
Alethea Artificial Liquid Intelligence Token (ALI) — — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) — +4.8% −29.9% −58.8% up next day
Tokenlon (LON) — — — — not measured yet
Iron Fish (IRON) — — — — not measured yet
Pangolin (PNG) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Goldfinch (GFI) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Iron Fish (IRON) — — — — not measured yet
HEGIC (HEGIC) — — — — not measured yet
BarnBridge (BOND) — +0.3% −3.6% −3.7% sideways next day
Perle (PRL) — — — — not measured yet
Flamingo Finance (FLM) — +14.5% +20.6% +17.0% up next day
Illuvium (ILV) — — — — not measured yet
Tokemak (TOKE) — — — — not measured yet
Orca (ORCA) — — — — not measured yet
Perpetual Protocol (PERP) — +0.2% +24.6% −2.1% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Iron Fish (IRON) — — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) — — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) — +2.8% +310.1% +285.8% up next day
TrueFi (TRU) — +2.8% +310.1% +285.8% up next day
Core DAO (CORE) — — — — not measured yet
DYDX Chain (DYDX) — — — — not measured yet
Tribe (TRIBE) — — — — not measured yet
Tribe (TRIBE) — — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) — — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) — −3.0% −4.1% −2.3% down next day
Siren (SIREN) — — — — not measured yet
1INCH (1INCH) — +11.4% +39.8% +30.0% up next day
DODO (DODO) — −2.9% −17.9% −27.6% down next day
Kava Lend (HARD) — −6.7% +48.0% +27.7% down next day
Pangolin (PNG) — — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) — −11.2% +28.4% +16.0% down next day
TrueFi (TRU) — −11.2% +28.4% +16.0% down next day
BarnBridge (BOND) — — — — not measured yet
Augur (REP) — +13.7% −1.9% −19.5% up next day
BarnBridge (BOND) — — — — not measured yet
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) — −3.4% +66.1% +25.4% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) — +3.7% +62.6% +32.2% up next day
Truth (TRU) — — +68.0% +37.6% not measured yet
TrueFi (TRU) — — +68.0% +37.6% not measured yet
HEGIC (HEGIC) — — — — not measured yet
BarnBridge (BOND) — — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) — — — — not measured yet
Harvest Finance (FARM) — — — — not measured yet
2020
Venus (XVS) — 0.0% +119.5% +100.8% sideways next day
IdleMine (IDLE) — — — — not measured yet
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) — −8.2% +52.9% +14.6% down next day
INV (INV) — — — — not measured yet
MyShell (SHELL) — — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) — — — — not measured yet
Loopring (LRC) — +0.3% −15.1% −68.3% sideways next day
Truth (TRU) — — — — not measured yet
TrueFi (TRU) — — — — not measured yet
Sushi (SUSHI) — −19.9% +69.5% +40.3% down next day
BarnBridge (BOND) — — — — not measured yet
Uniswap (UNI) — +11.4% +14.5% −19.5% up next day
BarnBridge (BOND) — — — — not measured yet
Harvest Finance (FARM) — — — — not measured yet
Curve DAO Token (CRV) — −32.1% −2.4% −28.1% down next day
Balancer (BAL) — +6.1% −31.0% −70.0% up next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) — — — — not measured yet
yearn.finance (YFI) — — — — not measured yet
Balancer (BAL) — — — — not measured yet
Uniswap (UNI) — — — — not measured yet
2019
Compound (COMP) — — — — not measured yet

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 197 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answered from this count

What does the 53% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 105 of the 197 measured past cases of tVL crashes of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 47% to 59% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 197.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 48% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 61% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 432 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every TVL crash with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.