How often it went up143 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
TVL crashes of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 143 of the 314 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 70 of those 143 closed higher — a base rate of 49%, with a 90% range of 42% to 56%, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- By day 30, 46 of the 139 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (33%).
- The typical day-30 move was −10.3%, the best +310.1% and the worst −58.0%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −10.5% vs BTC and beat it in 29.5% of 139 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 43% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 58% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 6 days ago · DOLO Dolomite next day −3.1% · 30 days lands
- 7 days ago · G Gravity next day −5.7% · 30 days lands
- 7 days ago · HEMI Hemi next day −5.2% · 30 days lands
- 15 days ago · QUICK Quickswap [OLD] 30 days lands
- 20 days ago · BLAST Blast Token next day +16.1% · 7 days −47.0% · 30 days lands
- 21 days ago · ORDER Orderly Network next day −2.0% · 7 days −4.0% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL crash can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL crashes of micro-cap tokens →
Every past case314 cases
Every past TVL crash behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 314 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Dolomite (DOLO) | — | −3.1% | in 24 days | in 24 days | down next day | |
| Gravity (G) | — | −5.7% | in 23 days | in 23 days | down next day | |
| Hemi (HEMI) | — | −5.2% | in 23 days | in 23 days | down next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | in 15 days | in 15 days | not measured yet | |
| Blast Token (BLAST) | — | +16.1% | in 10 days | in 10 days | up next day | |
| Orderly Network (ORDER) | — | −2.0% | in 9 days | in 9 days | down next day | |
| Gravity (G) | — | −2.6% | in 6 days | in 6 days | down next day | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | −4.6% | in 6 days | in 6 days | down next day | |
| Frankencoin (ZCHF) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bluefin (BLUE) | — | −0.0% | −13.0% | −16.6% | sideways next day | |
| Grove Finance (GROVE) | — | +1.8% | −24.1% | −31.6% | up next day | |
| Puffer (PUFFER) | — | 0.0% | +30.9% | +23.3% | sideways next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | — | −7.1% | +32.0% | +26.7% | down next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | −5.3% | −19.8% | −27.1% | down next day | |
| Power Protocol (POWER) | — | +1.8% | +49.5% | +37.6% | up next day | |
| Solstice (SLX) | — | −2.7% | +1.0% | −10.9% | down next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | −0.9% | +34.4% | +13.0% | sideways next day | |
| SaucerSwap (SAUCE) | — | +0.5% | +11.3% | −10.5% | sideways next day | |
| Avalon (AVL) | — | −2.7% | −8.5% | −27.9% | down next day | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | −6.3% | +35.0% | +18.4% | down next day | |
| PumpBTC (PUMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | — | −2.1% | +2.8% | +1.9% | down next day | |
| Bsquared Network (B2) | — | −19.6% | −13.9% | +1.4% | down next day | |
| Marinade (MNDE) | — | −0.7% | −8.4% | +8.9% | sideways next day | |
| MYX Finance (MYX) | — | −10.7% | −17.2% | −1.0% | down next day | |
| Resolv (RESOLV) | — | +1.7% | −51.9% | −30.8% | up next day | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | +14.0% | −46.2% | −24.9% | up next day | |
| GAIB (GAIB) | — | +1.2% | −9.0% | −4.1% | up next day | |
| River (RIVER) | — | +0.1% | −1.5% | −1.3% | sideways next day | |
| Spell Token (SPELL) | — | +0.2% | −3.6% | −1.8% | sideways next day | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | +9.7% | −1.3% | −3.7% | up next day | |
| Dolomite (DOLO) | — | +0.7% | −3.6% | −5.9% | sideways next day | |
| Treehouse (TREE) | — | +0.9% | −1.9% | −4.3% | sideways next day | |
| TermMax (TMX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Resolv (RESOLV) | — | +3.6% | −15.5% | −27.0% | up next day | |
| River (RIVER) | — | +53.6% | −50.1% | −21.0% | up next day | |
| River (RIVER) | — | +55.3% | +13.4% | +33.5% | up next day | |
| Ankr (ANKR) | — | +2.2% | −24.0% | −11.5% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| NAVI Protocol (NAVX) | — | +0.6% | −24.2% | −12.6% | sideways next day | |
| Zeus Network (ZEUS) | — | −11.1% | −58.0% | −46.5% | down next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | +12.2% | −19.9% | −13.0% | up next day | |
| Momentum (MMT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Teller (DEBIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gravity (G) | — | +12.4% | −16.1% | −9.2% | up next day | |
| Metis Token (METIS) | — | +21.6% | +3.1% | +10.0% | up next day | |
| BENQI (QI) | — | +19.9% | −17.7% | −10.8% | up next day | |
| Origin Protocol (OGN) | — | +16.3% | −9.3% | −2.4% | up next day | |
| LFJ (JOE) | — | +21.4% | −4.5% | +2.4% | up next day | |
| STBL (STBL) | — | +21.3% | −25.5% | −18.6% | up next day | |
| EVAA Protocol (EVAA) | — | +23.6% | −11.1% | −4.2% | up next day | |
| Kava Lend (HARD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Suilend (SEND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) | — | +17.0% | −25.0% | −18.2% | up next day | |
| Cellframe (CELL) | — | +12.6% | −4.6% | +2.2% | up next day | |
| Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kava Lend (HARD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Mitosis (MITO) | — | +14.7% | −30.2% | −23.0% | up next day | |
| Mansory (MNSRY) | — | −0.3% | −5.6% | −1.2% | sideways next day | |
| Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| HEGIC (HEGIC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | — | +24.4% | −27.9% | −24.0% | up next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BOB (Build on Bitcoin) (BOB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Mitosis (MITO) | — | +46.6% | −40.7% | −40.0% | up next day | |
| Zircuit (ZRC) | — | −7.8% | −11.0% | −10.2% | down next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | +5.7% | +12.1% | +14.7% | up next day | |
| SynFutures (F) | — | −9.8% | +178.3% | +184.3% | down next day | |
| Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) | — | −13.8% | +8.8% | +12.2% | down next day | |
| PumpBTC (PUMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zest Protocol (ZEST) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cellframe (CELL) | — | +1.5% | −21.5% | −18.0% | up next day | |
| Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Puffer (PUFFER) | — | −7.2% | −0.7% | +5.8% | down next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) | — | +0.9% | +6.8% | +13.2% | sideways next day | |
| River (RIVER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Avalon (AVL) | — | −1.9% | +2.5% | +4.0% | down next day | |
| SynFutures (F) | — | +1.3% | −10.3% | −10.0% | up next day | |
| Spell Token (SPELL) | — | −0.5% | +7.5% | +4.7% | sideways next day | |
| Thena (THE) | — | +16.7% | +69.1% | +62.0% | up next day | |
| Biconomy (BICO) | — | −5.3% | +5.4% | +1.2% | down next day | |
| MCDEX (MCB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Maverick Token (MAV) | — | −13.7% | −13.7% | −17.1% | down next day | |
| Hemi (HEMI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Flamingo Finance (FLM) | — | +5.9% | −0.6% | −12.3% | up next day | |
| Ankr (ANKR) | — | −4.6% | +18.9% | +8.0% | down next day | |
| StakeStone (STO) | — | −0.3% | +48.3% | +36.0% | sideways next day | |
| Canopy (CNPY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DeGate (DG) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Flamingo Finance (FLM) | — | −2.3% | −1.6% | −14.0% | down next day | |
| KiloEx (KILO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Manta Network (MANTA) | — | +3.1% | −18.8% | −22.6% | up next day | |
| Dogelon Mars (ELON) | — | −3.8% | −10.4% | −14.2% | down next day | |
| StakeStone (STO) | — | +1.1% | −21.4% | −25.2% | up next day | |
| River (RIVER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PumpBTC (PUMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Hemi (HEMI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| UniCrypt (UNCX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cellframe (CELL) | — | +8.3% | −7.8% | −10.8% | up next day | |
| SmarDex (SDEX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Maverick Token (MAV) | — | −5.2% | −33.5% | −31.7% | down next day | |
| Momentum (MMT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| NAVI Protocol (NAVX) | — | +3.2% | −37.0% | −35.1% | up next day | |
| Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) | — | −6.2% | −11.8% | −10.0% | down next day | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | −5.6% | −51.1% | −41.5% | down next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Hyperion (RION) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) | — | −3.7% | −33.4% | −35.2% | down next day | |
| Canopy (CNPY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| StakeStone (STO) | — | −5.5% | −35.6% | −39.9% | down next day | |
| Dolomite (DOLO) | — | −2.9% | −23.6% | −28.8% | down next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| KiloEx (KILO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zest Protocol (ZEST) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Canopy (CNPY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeX Token (APEX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Babylon (BABY) | — | −2.6% | +14.6% | −10.7% | down next day | |
| pSTAKE Finance (PSTAKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Clearpool (CPOOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aquarius (AQUA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) | — | +1.7% | −37.9% | −35.0% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BOB (Build on Bitcoin) (BOB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BiFi (BIFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Metis Token (METIS) | — | +11.9% | −26.3% | −24.4% | up next day | |
| Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sonic SVM (SONIC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BOB (Build on Bitcoin) (BOB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| UniCrypt (UNCX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Puffer (PUFFER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Resolv (RESOLV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ren (REN) | — | −8.4% | +39.2% | +6.0% | down next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MDEX (HECO) (MDX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ren (REN) | — | +7.1% | +13.5% | −19.7% | up next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Flamingo Finance (FLM) | — | −1.6% | +3.7% | −10.6% | down next day | |
| Resolv (RESOLV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Perle (PRL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ren (REN) | — | −8.2% | −13.3% | −23.8% | down next day | |
| MCDEX (MCB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Perle (PRL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SynFutures (F) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Suilend (SEND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| RCH Token (RCH) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| LFJ (JOE) | — | +6.6% | +1.5% | +3.4% | up next day | |
| Clearpool (CPOOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Core DAO (CORE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Frankencoin (ZCHF) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aura (AURA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Badger (BADGER) | — | −5.8% | −13.6% | −11.8% | down next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | +2.6% | −18.5% | −16.5% | up next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| INV (INV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| LFJ (JOE) | — | −6.2% | −22.8% | −9.5% | down next day | |
| Loopring (LRC) | — | −0.9% | −32.0% | −14.5% | sideways next day | |
| Synapse (SYN) | — | −6.9% | −24.4% | −7.2% | down next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | −7.3% | −38.6% | −20.5% | down next day | |
| UniCrypt (UNCX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MDEX (HECO) (MDX) | — | +2.5% | −32.0% | −21.2% | up next day | |
| EVAA Protocol (EVAA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| WOO (WOO) | — | −4.3% | −32.1% | −20.0% | down next day | |
| AUSD (AUSD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| WOO (WOO) | — | +9.0% | −33.0% | −24.5% | up next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | −2.9% | −39.8% | −35.6% | down next day | |
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sonic SVM (SONIC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tokemak (TOKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Manta Network (MANTA) | — | +23.4% | −3.6% | −10.0% | up next day | |
| Blast Token (BLAST) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Moss Coin (MOC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| UniCrypt (UNCX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Goldfinch (GFI) | — | — | −12.6% | −10.1% | not measured yet | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | +0.7% | −2.8% | −18.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bancor (BNT) | — | −1.7% | −11.0% | −29.0% | down next day | |
| Echelon Prime (PRIME) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) | — | +2.2% | +31.7% | +21.1% | up next day | |
| Bella Protocol (BEL) | — | +2.9% | +5.9% | −19.8% | up next day | |
| ALEX Lab (ALEX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Polkadot Token (DOT) | — | −3.6% | +24.2% | +14.6% | down next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −2.8% | +21.7% | −7.2% | down next day | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | −3.8% | +80.4% | +53.9% | down next day | |
| LFJ (JOE) | — | −6.8% | +5.8% | −20.7% | down next day | |
| Citrea (CTR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Origin Protocol (OGN) | — | +1.5% | −28.0% | −16.7% | up next day | |
| Alchemix (ALCX) | — | −4.0% | −11.2% | +0.1% | down next day | |
| INV (INV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tokemak (TOKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lista DAO (LISTA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Multichain (MULTI) | — | −10.3% | −22.7% | −15.9% | down next day | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Verse World (VERSE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Marinade (MNDE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Delysium (AGI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Yelay (YLAY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | −10.6% | −21.0% | −9.5% | down next day | |
| SmarDex (SDEX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kava Lend (HARD) | — | +2.7% | −23.1% | −11.8% | up next day | |
| BabySwap (BABY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gearbox (GEAR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Echelon Prime (PRIME) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | +12.7% | +15.1% | −20.8% | up next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Thena (THE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Hashflow (HFT) | — | +6.2% | −12.8% | −48.7% | up next day | |
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| HEGIC (HEGIC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stader (SD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| XMAQUINA (DEUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Keep Network (KEEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Multichain (MULTI) | — | +23.2% | +48.1% | +33.0% | up next day | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lista DAO (LISTA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | −5.0% | −30.7% | −11.0% | down next day | |
| AUSD (AUSD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | +5.4% | −15.2% | −5.5% | up next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stake DAO (SDT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | −5.1% | −17.9% | −13.8% | down next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | −5.1% | −17.9% | −13.8% | down next day | |
| Perpetual Protocol (PERP) | — | −5.6% | −17.4% | −6.4% | down next day | |
| XMAQUINA (DEUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Agora by Virtuals (AGORA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Origin Protocol (OGN) | — | −9.7% | −21.1% | −6.6% | down next day | |
| INV (INV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MyShell (SHELL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| WOO (WOO) | — | +0.5% | −22.7% | −14.7% | sideways next day | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | −1.2% | −25.3% | −17.3% | down next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | +8.1% | −2.6% | −1.4% | up next day | |
| Goldfinch (GFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Goldfinch (GFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DEAPcoin (DEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wilder World (WILD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | +7.1% | −27.7% | −16.8% | up next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | +7.1% | −27.7% | −16.8% | up next day | |
| MAGIC (MAGIC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Goldfinch (GFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | −4.1% | −7.8% | −11.0% | down next day | |
| Aladdin DAO (ALD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | −3.3% | −4.3% | −15.4% | down next day | |
| BENQI (QI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | +2.5% | +19.7% | −5.1% | up next day | |
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Alethea Artificial Liquid Intelligence Token (ALI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Serum (SRM) | — | +4.8% | −29.9% | −58.8% | up next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Iron Fish (IRON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pangolin (PNG) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Goldfinch (GFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Iron Fish (IRON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| HEGIC (HEGIC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BarnBridge (BOND) | — | +0.3% | −3.6% | −3.7% | sideways next day | |
| Perle (PRL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Flamingo Finance (FLM) | — | +14.5% | +20.6% | +17.0% | up next day | |
| Illuvium (ILV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tokemak (TOKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Perpetual Protocol (PERP) | — | +0.2% | +24.6% | −2.1% | sideways next day | |
| Iron Fish (IRON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | +2.8% | +310.1% | +285.8% | up next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | +2.8% | +310.1% | +285.8% | up next day | |
| Core DAO (CORE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tribe (TRIBE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tribe (TRIBE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| INV (INV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −3.0% | −4.1% | −2.3% | down next day | |
| Siren (SIREN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −2.9% | −17.9% | −27.6% | down next day | |
| Kava Lend (HARD) | — | −6.7% | +48.0% | +27.7% | down next day | |
| Pangolin (PNG) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | −11.2% | +28.4% | +16.0% | down next day | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | −11.2% | +28.4% | +16.0% | down next day | |
| BarnBridge (BOND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BarnBridge (BOND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | −3.4% | +66.1% | +25.4% | down next day | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | — | +68.0% | +37.6% | not measured yet | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | — | +68.0% | +37.6% | not measured yet | |
| HEGIC (HEGIC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BarnBridge (BOND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Harvest Finance (FARM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| IdleMine (IDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | −8.2% | +52.9% | +14.6% | down next day | |
| INV (INV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MyShell (SHELL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Loopring (LRC) | — | +0.3% | −15.1% | −68.3% | sideways next day | |
| Truth (TRU) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| TrueFi (TRU) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | −19.9% | +69.5% | +40.3% | down next day | |
| BarnBridge (BOND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BarnBridge (BOND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Harvest Finance (FARM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +6.1% | −31.0% | −70.0% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 143 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 49% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 70 of the 143 measured past cases of tVL crashes of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 42% to 56% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 143.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 43% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 58% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 314 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every TVL crash with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.