How often it went up28 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 28 of the 35 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 8 of those 28 closed higher — a base rate of 29%, with a 90% range of 17% to 44%, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- By day 30, 12 of the 29 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (41%).
- The typical day-30 move was −21.6%, the best +231.8% and the worst −80.3%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −33.7% vs BTC and beat it in 31.0% of 29 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 29% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 27% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled spot listing can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case35 cases
Every past spot listing behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 35 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| EURC (EURC) | OKX | — | in 18 days | in 18 days | not measured yet | |
| Pharos (PROS) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| edgeX (EDGE) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MegaETH (MEGA) | OKX | −4.2% | −62.1% | −59.6% | down next day | |
| MegaETH (MEGA) | Binance | −4.2% | −62.1% | −59.6% | down next day | |
| Ripple USD (RLUSD) | OKX | +0.0% | +0.1% | +3.9% | sideways next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | OKX | −29.7% | −53.4% | −51.9% | down next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | Binance | +84.0% | −21.6% | −24.0% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Centrifuge (CFG) | Binance | −14.1% | +8.6% | +5.9% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Toshi (TOSHI) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kamino (KMNO) | OKX | −12.5% | −0.3% | −2.9% | down next day | |
| Vaulta (A) | OKX | −19.3% | −34.1% | −33.7% | down next day | |
| Huma Finance (HUMA) | OKX | −11.4% | −52.2% | −50.7% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | Binance | +2.3% | +61.3% | +54.1% | up next day | |
| Kamino (KMNO) | Binance | −17.5% | −35.4% | −42.5% | down next day | |
| Sonic (S) | OKX | +14.6% | +67.4% | +71.3% | up next day | |
| OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) | OKX | −21.5% | −64.8% | −56.3% | down next day | |
| OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) | Binance | −21.5% | −64.8% | −56.3% | down next day | |
| BIO Protocol (BIO) | OKX | −14.2% | −80.3% | −81.1% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Orca (ORCA) | Binance | −10.3% | −41.0% | −42.5% | down next day | |
| Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) | OKX | +13.1% | +231.8% | +206.0% | up next day | |
| Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) | Binance | +13.1% | +231.8% | +206.0% | up next day | |
| CoW Protocol Token (COW) | Binance | −1.7% | −2.3% | −46.1% | down next day | |
| Kaia (KAIA) | OKX | −5.5% | +44.8% | +11.5% | down next day | |
| Banana For Scale (BANANA) | OKX | +5.5% | +4.5% | −28.7% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | OKX | −19.0% | −31.7% | −42.7% | down next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | Binance | — | −26.3% | −36.6% | not measured yet | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | OKX | −0.9% | +0.0% | −4.3% | sideways next day | |
| Aethir (ATH) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Notcoin (NOT) | OKX | −8.4% | +176.3% | +176.3% | down next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | OKX | −17.9% | −43.7% | −39.7% | down next day | |
| BOOK OF MEME (BOME) | Binance | −11.3% | −59.5% | −50.8% | down next day | |
| dogwifhat (WIF) | Binance | +19.3% | +129.2% | +128.8% | up next day | |
| Axelar (AXL) | Binance | −0.6% | +4.6% | −12.0% | sideways next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 28 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 29% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 8 of the 28 measured past cases of listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 17% to 44% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 28.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 29% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 27% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 35 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every spot listing with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.