How often it went up9 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 9 of the 20 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 5 of those 9 closed higher — a base rate of 56%, with a 90% range of 30% to 78%, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- By day 30, 2 of the 9 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (22%).
- The typical day-30 move was −24.6%, the best +14.1% and the worst −48.1%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −21.6% vs BTC and beat it in 33.3% of 9 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 9 as of Oct 3, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled spot listing can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case20 cases
Every past spot listing behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 20 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Stacks (STX) | Binance | +25.5% | in 15 days | in 15 days | up next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | OKX | — | in 12 days | in 12 days | not measured yet | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | Binance | −3.8% | −13.5% | −12.0% | down next day | |
| GRASS (GRASS) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lighter (LIT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Aster (ASTER) | Binance | −0.9% | −48.1% | −32.2% | sideways next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | OKX | +0.0% | −37.6% | −28.7% | sideways next day | |
| Sky (SKY) | OKX | — | −24.6% | −21.6% | not measured yet | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | Binance | +5.5% | −36.2% | −33.3% | up next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Global Dollar (USDG) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| USD1 (USD1) | Binance | +0.0% | −0.0% | +6.8% | sideways next day | |
| Jito Staked SOL (JITOSOL) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) | OKX | +24.2% | +14.1% | +19.8% | up next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PayPal USD (PYUSD) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Render (RENDER) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | Binance | −13.8% | −39.9% | −26.0% | down next day | |
| Ether.fi (ETHFI) | OKX | −3.2% | +13.4% | +23.8% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 9 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 56% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 5 of the 9 measured past cases of listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 30% to 78% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 9.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 9.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 20 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every spot listing with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.