How often it went up37 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme lows of small-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 37 of the 37 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 16 of those 37 closed higher — a base rate of 43%, with a 90% range of 31% to 57%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 10 of the 37 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (27%).
- The typical day-30 move was −8.9%, the best +55.2% and the worst −59.9%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −7.9% vs BTC and beat it in 18.9% of 37 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 41% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 47% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme low can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme lows of small-cap L1 and L2 tokens →
Every past case37 cases
Every past funding extreme low behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 37 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Stable (STABLE) | — | −2.3% | −13.4% | −33.3% | down next day | |
| Conflux Network (CFX) | — | +4.5% | +7.4% | −12.5% | up next day | |
| THETA (THETA) | — | −5.7% | −11.2% | −10.9% | down next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | −1.3% | −13.6% | −13.3% | down next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | −1.0% | −6.4% | −7.9% | sideways next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +13.2% | −12.2% | −16.8% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | −1.8% | +11.3% | +3.9% | down next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | −9.8% | −17.7% | −19.9% | down next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | −7.2% | −10.0% | −13.5% | down next day | |
| Conflux Network (CFX) | — | +3.4% | −5.4% | −3.4% | up next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | — | +7.9% | −3.8% | −7.9% | up next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | +4.7% | −18.9% | −23.0% | up next day | |
| Stable (STABLE) | — | −2.8% | +3.2% | −0.8% | down next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | +5.3% | +18.9% | +14.0% | up next day | |
| NEO (NEO) | — | +0.4% | −7.6% | −12.5% | sideways next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −16.3% | −3.2% | −2.8% | down next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | −1.9% | −21.1% | −2.0% | down next day | |
| Basic Attention Token (BAT) | — | +7.9% | −25.2% | −6.2% | up next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | +3.5% | +9.1% | −1.7% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | +0.8% | +55.2% | +50.3% | sideways next day | |
| THETA (THETA) | — | +3.4% | −10.2% | −18.0% | up next day | |
| NEO (NEO) | — | −0.1% | +13.9% | +7.0% | sideways next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −4.2% | −8.9% | −10.0% | down next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | +9.8% | −8.7% | −15.1% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | +1.1% | +33.0% | +27.5% | up next day | |
| NEO (NEO) | — | −3.3% | +2.9% | −2.6% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −22.3% | −28.8% | −32.5% | down next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | −0.4% | −5.6% | −8.7% | sideways next day | |
| NEO (NEO) | — | +3.4% | −0.6% | −3.6% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | −2.5% | +14.3% | +17.4% | down next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | — | −17.5% | −31.0% | −20.9% | down next day | |
| NEO (NEO) | — | −4.8% | −20.4% | −10.4% | down next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | −0.6% | −11.1% | −5.5% | sideways next day | |
| Conflux Network (CFX) | — | +0.5% | −13.5% | −0.3% | sideways next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | −10.1% | −19.0% | +3.3% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +1.2% | −59.9% | −36.3% | up next day | |
| THETA (THETA) | — | −1.8% | −29.0% | −5.4% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 37 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 43% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 16 of the 37 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of small-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 31% to 57% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 37.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 41% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 47% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 37 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.