How often it went up51 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme lows of mid-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 51 of the 51 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 23 of those 51 closed higher — a base rate of 45%, with a 90% range of 34% to 57%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 20 of the 51 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (39%).
- The typical day-30 move was −6.6%, the best +76.9% and the worst −49.3%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −3.1% vs BTC and beat it in 33.3% of 51 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 52% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 35% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme low can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme lows of mid-cap L1 and L2 tokens →
Every past case51 cases
Every past funding extreme low behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 51 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) | — | −1.4% | −4.0% | −6.5% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −2.2% | +8.4% | +3.0% | down next day | |
| VeChain (VET) | — | −5.4% | −0.1% | −2.4% | down next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | +0.8% | +8.1% | +4.6% | sideways next day | |
| Avalanche (AVAX) | — | −1.3% | +2.3% | −0.5% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −0.2% | +3.1% | +4.7% | sideways next day | |
| Avalanche (AVAX) | — | +1.5% | +0.4% | −3.7% | up next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | +7.9% | +6.6% | +1.7% | up next day | |
| VeChain (VET) | — | +3.7% | +4.4% | −0.5% | up next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | −15.6% | −7.6% | −7.3% | down next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | −5.8% | −10.0% | −9.6% | down next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | — | −8.4% | −9.5% | −9.1% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −10.4% | −25.9% | −7.4% | down next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | — | −5.5% | −24.7% | −2.0% | down next day | |
| Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) | — | +0.4% | +0.6% | −14.0% | sideways next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | +4.9% | +3.6% | −11.2% | up next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | — | −0.4% | +43.1% | +26.6% | sideways next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | −8.9% | −28.6% | −37.4% | down next day | |
| Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) | — | +1.0% | −6.3% | −10.3% | sideways next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | −1.0% | +2.5% | −1.6% | down next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | +8.8% | +3.8% | −3.9% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) | — | +0.5% | +9.1% | +2.2% | sideways next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | — | +0.4% | +41.1% | +34.2% | sideways next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | +2.6% | +76.9% | +75.8% | up next day | |
| Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) | — | +2.7% | −9.5% | −7.5% | up next day | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | — | +0.3% | −8.3% | −6.3% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +2.1% | −6.8% | −8.8% | up next day | |
| Cosmos (ATOM) | — | −1.6% | −12.4% | −10.2% | down next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | +10.1% | +5.2% | −1.3% | up next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | — | −3.8% | +0.8% | −4.7% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +0.3% | −5.6% | −6.9% | sideways next day | |
| VeChain (VET) | — | −1.0% | −11.2% | −12.5% | down next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | −7.7% | +42.0% | +40.5% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +6.6% | −6.6% | −12.8% | up next day | |
| Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) | — | −0.0% | +3.3% | +6.4% | sideways next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | −4.2% | −7.1% | −4.1% | down next day | |
| Kaspa (KAS) | — | +5.7% | −6.2% | −3.1% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −17.5% | −23.4% | −13.3% | down next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | −19.2% | −15.6% | −5.5% | down next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | — | +5.9% | −11.6% | −6.1% | up next day | |
| VeChain (VET) | — | +3.4% | −8.7% | −3.1% | up next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | −12.4% | −13.3% | +5.0% | down next day | |
| Avalanche (AVAX) | — | −8.3% | −18.1% | +4.2% | down next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | −3.7% | −22.3% | +2.2% | down next day | |
| Kaspa (KAS) | — | +4.6% | −23.8% | +0.7% | up next day | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | — | −4.7% | −17.9% | +6.1% | down next day | |
| VeChain (VET) | — | +1.3% | −22.5% | +0.6% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −4.3% | −49.3% | −21.7% | down next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | −2.6% | −33.9% | −6.2% | down next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | −4.6% | −30.2% | −2.5% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | — | +3.5% | +9.0% | +13.7% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 51 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 45% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 23 of the 51 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of mid-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 34% to 57% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 51.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 52% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 35% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 51 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.