How often it went up26 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme highs of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: 26 of the 26 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 7 of those 26 closed higher — a base rate of 27%, with a 90% range of 15% to 43%, counted as of Oct 16, 2026.
- By day 30, 6 of the 26 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (23%).
- The typical day-30 move was −24.1%, the best +129.1% and the worst −90.3%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −24.5% vs BTC and beat it in 26.9% of 26 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 25% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 30% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme high can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme highs of small-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case26 cases
Every past funding extreme high behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 26 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Humanity (H) | — | +18.5% | −29.3% | −53.3% | up next day | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | — | −7.7% | −12.3% | −12.0% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | −5.3% | −13.2% | −13.6% | down next day | |
| Akash Network (AKT) | — | −8.2% | −25.1% | −25.6% | down next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | — | +11.6% | −14.1% | −15.6% | up next day | |
| Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) | — | −6.2% | −23.0% | −24.5% | down next day | |
| DeXe (DEXE) | — | +5.1% | −90.3% | −91.8% | up next day | |
| DeXe (DEXE) | — | −1.9% | −83.2% | −85.5% | down next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | — | −6.9% | −27.6% | −24.9% | down next day | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | — | −24.8% | −21.5% | −18.8% | down next day | |
| DeXe (DEXE) | — | −17.5% | +129.1% | +128.9% | down next day | |
| Kite (KITE) | — | −6.1% | −42.7% | −41.0% | down next day | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | — | −15.2% | +29.1% | +30.7% | down next day | |
| Hypurr (PURR) | — | −17.6% | −43.0% | −24.5% | down next day | |
| Humanity (H) | — | +83.2% | −77.2% | −56.6% | up next day | |
| Hypurr (PURR) | — | −0.5% | −5.3% | −24.6% | sideways next day | |
| Tagger (TAG) | — | −26.1% | +61.5% | +44.1% | down next day | |
| Humanity (H) | — | −0.7% | −33.6% | −37.2% | sideways next day | |
| AI Rig Complex (ARC) | — | −36.0% | −52.8% | −59.3% | down next day | |
| Hypurr (PURR) | — | −4.0% | +24.7% | +23.2% | down next day | |
| AI Rig Complex (ARC) | — | +25.5% | −43.2% | −35.1% | up next day | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | — | −3.9% | −3.3% | +6.6% | down next day | |
| Flow (FLOW) | — | −10.7% | −34.7% | −24.7% | down next day | |
| Hypurr (PURR) | — | +14.2% | +18.7% | +24.3% | up next day | |
| Flow (FLOW) | — | +1.6% | −40.3% | −18.7% | up next day | |
| AI Rig Complex (ARC) | — | −13.9% | +4.6% | +28.6% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 26 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 27% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 7 of the 26 measured past cases of funding extreme highs of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 16, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 15% to 43% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 26.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 25% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 30% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 26 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme high with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.