How often it went up9 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme highs of mid-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 9 of the 9 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 5 of those 9 closed higher — a base rate of 56%, with a 90% range of 30% to 78%, counted as of Oct 16, 2026.
- By day 30, 5 of the 6 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (83%).
- The typical day-30 move was +22.4%, the best +38.9% and the worst −22.9%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran +11.2% vs BTC and beat it in 100.0% of 6 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 9 as of Oct 16, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 19 days ago · MNT Mantle next day −4.2% · 7 days −4.4% · 30 days lands
- 24 days ago · TAO BitTensor next day −10.1% · 7 days −5.9% · 30 days lands
- 26 days ago · FIL Filecoin next day +2.5% · 7 days +18.6% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme high can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme highs of mid-cap L1 and L2 tokens →
Every past case9 cases
Every past funding extreme high behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 9 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Mantle (MNT) | — | −4.2% | in 11 days | in 11 days | down next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | −10.1% | in 6 days | in 6 days | down next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | +2.5% | in 4 days | in 4 days | up next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | — | −0.6% | +21.3% | +9.5% | sideways next day | |
| Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) | — | +2.4% | +28.0% | +16.2% | up next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | +0.8% | +23.6% | +13.0% | sideways next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | +3.4% | +38.9% | +28.4% | up next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | −6.6% | +17.5% | +6.4% | down next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | +2.5% | −22.9% | +2.4% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 9 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 56% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 5 of the 9 measured past cases of funding extreme highs of mid-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 16, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 30% to 78% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 9.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 9.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 9 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme high with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.