How often it went up41 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme highs of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 41 of the 42 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 23 of those 41 closed higher — a base rate of 56%, with a 90% range of 43% to 68%, counted as of Oct 16, 2026.
- By day 30, 28 of the 31 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (90%).
- The typical day-30 move was +23.4%, the best +350.1% and the worst −22.9%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran +13.0% vs BTC and beat it in 83.9% of 31 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 60% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 19 days ago · MNT Mantle next day −4.2% · 7 days −4.4% · 30 days lands
- 19 days ago · WLD Worldcoin next day −6.0% · 7 days +11.7% · 30 days lands
- 23 days ago · FET Artificial Superintelligence Alliance next day +9.1% · 7 days +9.1% · 30 days lands
- 24 days ago · TAO BitTensor next day −10.1% · 7 days −5.9% · 30 days lands
- 24 days ago · VVV Venice Token next day −5.5% · 7 days −15.6% · 30 days lands
- 26 days ago · AERO Aerodrome Finance next day +6.0% · 7 days +27.7% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme high can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme highs of mid-cap tokens →
Every past case42 cases
Every past funding extreme high behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 42 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Mantle (MNT) | — | −4.2% | in 11 days | in 11 days | down next day | |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | — | −6.0% | in 11 days | in 11 days | down next day | |
| Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) | — | +9.1% | in 7 days | in 7 days | up next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | −10.1% | in 6 days | in 6 days | down next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | — | −5.5% | in 6 days | in 6 days | down next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | +6.0% | in 4 days | in 4 days | up next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | +2.5% | in 4 days | in 4 days | up next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | +8.9% | in 4 days | in 4 days | up next day | |
| Pepe (PEPE) | — | +16.1% | in 4 days | in 4 days | up next day | |
| GRASS (GRASS) | — | +3.4% | in 3 days | in 3 days | up next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −0.8% | +9.3% | +5.9% | sideways next day | |
| GRASS (GRASS) | — | −3.5% | +91.2% | +87.5% | down next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | — | −6.3% | +58.7% | +51.0% | down next day | |
| Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) | — | −5.1% | −1.5% | −10.1% | down next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +1.0% | −4.6% | −13.1% | sideways next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | +17.6% | +47.4% | +35.5% | up next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | — | −0.6% | +21.3% | +9.5% | sideways next day | |
| Ether.fi (ETHFI) | — | +6.6% | +22.6% | +10.7% | up next day | |
| Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) | — | +2.4% | +28.0% | +16.2% | up next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | +15.4% | +60.1% | +48.3% | up next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | +4.0% | +49.1% | +37.2% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +15.3% | +18.9% | +8.3% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | −4.8% | +5.2% | −5.4% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −4.1% | +7.1% | −3.5% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | — | +13.7% | +49.7% | +39.1% | up next day | |
| Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) | — | −2.8% | +19.6% | +9.0% | down next day | |
| GRASS (GRASS) | — | +10.9% | +24.3% | +13.7% | up next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | — | +22.4% | +12.0% | +1.4% | up next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | −3.6% | +15.4% | +4.8% | down next day | |
| Pepe (PEPE) | — | −0.5% | +15.8% | +5.2% | sideways next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | — | +28.6% | +7.7% | −2.8% | up next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | +0.8% | +23.6% | +13.0% | sideways next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | +3.4% | +38.9% | +28.4% | up next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | — | +5.0% | +100.4% | +89.8% | up next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | −6.6% | +17.5% | +6.4% | down next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | — | +8.7% | +23.4% | +16.3% | up next day | |
| Akedo (AKE) | — | −15.5% | +350.1% | +350.2% | down next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | +2.5% | −22.9% | +2.4% | up next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | — | +12.4% | +28.2% | +53.5% | up next day | |
| Akedo (AKE) | — | −1.6% | +34.8% | +16.8% | down next day | |
| Akedo (AKE) | — | −2.1% | +207.8% | +203.7% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 41 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 56% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 23 of the 41 measured past cases of funding extreme highs of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 16, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 43% to 68% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 41.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 60% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 42 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme high with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.