How often it went up119 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme highs of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 119 of the 125 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 52 of those 119 closed higher — a base rate of 44%, with a 90% range of 36% to 51%, counted as of Oct 16, 2026.
- By day 30, 32 of the 93 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (34%).
- The typical day-30 move was −16.1%, the best +1419.4% and the worst −92.4%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −13.8% vs BTC and beat it in 33.3% of 93 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 39% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 10 days ago · LYN Everlyn AI next day −25.2% · 7 days −39.1% · 30 days lands
- 11 days ago · SIREN Siren next day −4.4% · 7 days −7.7% · 30 days lands
- 12 days ago · MITO Mitosis next day +1.7% · 7 days −5.9% · 30 days lands
- 13 days ago · HANA Hana Network next day −0.6% · 7 days +4.5% · 30 days lands
- 15 days ago · KGEN KGeN next day −0.3% · 7 days −17.8% · 30 days lands
- 20 days ago · AIO OlaXBT next day +6.1% · 7 days +4.1% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme high can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme highs of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case125 cases
Every past funding extreme high behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 125 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Everlyn AI (LYN) | — | −25.2% | in 20 days | in 20 days | down next day | |
| Siren (SIREN) | — | −4.4% | in 19 days | in 19 days | down next day | |
| Mitosis (MITO) | — | +1.7% | in 18 days | in 18 days | up next day | |
| Hana Network (HANA) | — | −0.6% | in 17 days | in 17 days | sideways next day | |
| KGeN (KGEN) | — | −0.3% | in 15 days | in 15 days | sideways next day | |
| OlaXBT (AIO) | — | +6.1% | in 10 days | in 10 days | up next day | |
| River (RIVER) | — | −5.4% | in 10 days | in 10 days | down next day | |
| Quack AI (Q) | — | +30.6% | in 10 days | in 10 days | up next day | |
| MYX Finance (MYX) | — | −2.0% | in 10 days | in 10 days | down next day | |
| Capricorn (APR) | — | −4.6% | in 10 days | in 10 days | down next day | |
| Janction (JCT) | — | +1.1% | in 10 days | in 10 days | up next day | |
| Bitlight (LIGHT) | — | +1.6% | in 10 days | in 10 days | up next day | |
| Swarm Network (TRUTH) | — | −5.1% | in 10 days | in 10 days | down next day | |
| Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) | — | −0.4% | in 10 days | in 10 days | sideways next day | |
| 4 (4) | — | +7.0% | in 8 days | in 8 days | up next day | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | +2.7% | in 8 days | in 8 days | up next day | |
| AS Roma Fan Token (ASR) | — | +0.1% | in 7 days | in 7 days | sideways next day | |
| Siren (SIREN) | — | +3.5% | in 7 days | in 7 days | up next day | |
| Nillion (NIL) | — | +84.1% | in 6 days | in 6 days | up next day | |
| Bitrue Coin (BTR) | — | — | in 6 days | in 6 days | not measured yet | |
| AZTEC (AZTEC) | — | −6.1% | in 6 days | in 6 days | down next day | |
| KGeN (KGEN) | — | −0.6% | in 6 days | in 6 days | sideways next day | |
| Starpower (STAR) | — | +12.6% | in 5 days | in 5 days | up next day | |
| Griffain (GRIFFAIN) | — | +15.7% | in 5 days | in 5 days | up next day | |
| Test (TST) | — | +5.7% | in 4 days | in 4 days | up next day | |
| Gravity (G) | — | −13.1% | in 3 days | in 3 days | down next day | |
| AI Network (AIN) | — | −13.0% | tomorrow | tomorrow | down next day | |
| Quack AI (Q) | — | −8.5% | −3.2% | −6.5% | down next day | |
| Janction (JCT) | — | −8.6% | −17.6% | −21.3% | down next day | |
| Swarm Network (TRUTH) | — | +0.1% | +20.1% | +12.9% | sideways next day | |
| Test (TST) | — | −2.3% | +3.3% | −4.3% | down next day | |
| Siren (SIREN) | — | +0.9% | −20.7% | −30.3% | sideways next day | |
| Hana Network (HANA) | — | −1.1% | −38.2% | −45.8% | down next day | |
| Magma Finance (MAGMA) | — | −29.6% | −63.6% | −70.6% | down next day | |
| Griffain (GRIFFAIN) | — | −4.7% | +42.7% | +35.8% | down next day | |
| Bitrue Coin (BTR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 4 (4) | — | −1.1% | +155.6% | +143.7% | down next day | |
| OlaXBT (AIO) | — | −35.4% | −49.2% | −70.4% | down next day | |
| Test (TST) | — | +3.8% | +9.1% | −12.0% | up next day | |
| Janction (JCT) | — | +3.6% | −59.6% | −79.3% | up next day | |
| TUTORIAL (TUT) | — | −62.0% | −89.8% | −110.5% | down next day | |
| KGeN (KGEN) | — | +3.7% | −24.4% | −45.0% | up next day | |
| Aria.AI (ARIA) | — | +6.8% | −5.9% | −26.6% | up next day | |
| Siren (SIREN) | — | −11.3% | −26.7% | −48.6% | down next day | |
| 4 (4) | — | +14.7% | +141.5% | +116.6% | up next day | |
| Capricorn (APR) | — | +6.8% | +3.6% | −21.3% | up next day | |
| Bitrue Coin (BTR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Swarm Network (TRUTH) | — | +4.7% | −5.3% | −30.2% | up next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | −1.6% | −42.2% | −65.7% | down next day | |
| Orochi Network (ON) | — | +28.0% | −22.6% | −46.1% | up next day | |
| Yooldo (ESPORTS) | — | +1.5% | −12.2% | −35.6% | up next day | |
| Janction (JCT) | — | +1.4% | −52.4% | −74.1% | up next day | |
| Bluwhale (BLUAI) | — | +7.2% | +9.5% | −13.7% | up next day | |
| Griffain (GRIFFAIN) | — | −11.6% | +38.4% | +12.5% | down next day | |
| Orochi Network (ON) | — | −34.2% | +28.0% | +8.6% | down next day | |
| Trusta.AI (TA) | — | −1.4% | −25.7% | −42.3% | down next day | |
| Hana Network (HANA) | — | −22.5% | −54.8% | −66.7% | down next day | |
| KGeN (KGEN) | — | −3.2% | −3.5% | −10.6% | down next day | |
| Bitrue Coin (BTR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| CARV (CARV) | — | −2.6% | −40.5% | −22.2% | down next day | |
| Bluwhale (BLUAI) | — | +19.6% | +7.7% | +26.6% | up next day | |
| Everlyn AI (LYN) | — | +4.5% | −26.4% | −7.6% | up next day | |
| MYX Finance (MYX) | — | −7.1% | −11.6% | +13.5% | down next day | |
| Bluwhale (BLUAI) | — | −13.8% | +9.8% | +35.0% | down next day | |
| Stable Metal (STBL) | — | +6.7% | −39.0% | −13.8% | up next day | |
| AI Network (AIN) | — | −2.7% | −37.4% | −12.8% | down next day | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | +5.6% | −7.5% | +12.5% | up next day | |
| KGeN (KGEN) | — | −5.2% | −0.1% | +20.0% | down next day | |
| 4 (4) | — | +16.2% | −32.2% | −13.9% | up next day | |
| Swarm Network (TRUTH) | — | −2.8% | +16.1% | +34.5% | down next day | |
| Collect on Fanable (COLLECT) | — | −1.2% | +96.9% | +112.0% | down next day | |
| SKYAI (SKYAI) | — | +43.4% | −69.5% | −54.3% | up next day | |
| MYX Finance (MYX) | — | −4.9% | +37.9% | +53.1% | down next day | |
| Magma Finance (MAGMA) | — | −5.5% | +15.3% | +24.1% | down next day | |
| EVAA Protocol (EVAA) | — | −6.9% | −27.7% | −19.0% | down next day | |
| Capricorn (APR) | — | −8.9% | +5.7% | +9.5% | down next day | |
| Janction (JCT) | — | −21.6% | +9.5% | +13.2% | down next day | |
| Griffain (GRIFFAIN) | — | +15.2% | −41.2% | −36.4% | up next day | |
| Trusta.AI (TA) | — | −1.1% | +25.5% | +30.4% | down next day | |
| Alaya Governance Token (AGT) | — | −24.4% | −44.2% | −38.9% | down next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | — | −3.3% | −8.2% | −6.7% | down next day | |
| Bulla (BULLA) | — | −11.1% | −40.5% | −42.8% | down next day | |
| Everlyn AI (LYN) | — | −28.7% | −40.4% | −40.3% | down next day | |
| Folks Finance (FOLKS) | — | −22.7% | −12.9% | −12.9% | down next day | |
| Bitlight (LIGHT) | — | −41.7% | −49.4% | −49.3% | down next day | |
| Swarm Network (TRUTH) | — | −3.5% | +45.7% | +45.7% | down next day | |
| Griffain (GRIFFAIN) | — | +3.3% | −34.8% | −37.8% | up next day | |
| Janction (JCT) | — | +0.1% | −17.2% | −20.2% | sideways next day | |
| Alaya Governance Token (AGT) | — | +18.6% | −19.6% | −22.6% | up next day | |
| MYX Finance (MYX) | — | +4.3% | −31.2% | −37.9% | up next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | — | −19.9% | +6.2% | −2.8% | down next day | |
| Orochi Network (ON) | — | −3.7% | −21.9% | −30.8% | down next day | |
| Hana Network (HANA) | — | +9.6% | −8.1% | −17.0% | up next day | |
| AI Network (AIN) | — | −18.5% | +58.5% | +46.4% | down next day | |
| Bulla (BULLA) | — | −22.6% | −38.9% | −51.1% | down next day | |
| Capricorn (APR) | — | +85.8% | −16.6% | −28.7% | up next day | |
| Trusta.AI (TA) | — | +2.3% | +24.4% | +12.3% | up next day | |
| River (RIVER) | — | −9.6% | −31.4% | −41.7% | down next day | |
| EVAA Protocol (EVAA) | — | +57.8% | −4.3% | −14.6% | up next day | |
| Drift Protocol (DRIFT) | — | +14.4% | +0.8% | −9.4% | up next day | |
| Bitrue Coin (BTR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aria.AI (ARIA) | — | +2.2% | −92.4% | −102.6% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +1.3% | +30.8% | +16.3% | up next day | |
| Griffain (GRIFFAIN) | — | +8.7% | −1.8% | −13.3% | up next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | — | +25.5% | +1419.4% | +1403.2% | up next day | |
| Pippin (PIPPIN) | — | −24.2% | −46.1% | −64.0% | down next day | |
| Janction (JCT) | — | −15.2% | −16.1% | −36.3% | down next day | |
| Bluwhale (BLUAI) | — | +7.4% | +124.3% | +104.1% | up next day | |
| Bitlight (LIGHT) | — | −24.2% | −26.3% | −36.1% | down next day | |
| Janction (JCT) | — | −16.9% | −25.1% | −35.5% | down next day | |
| Pippin (PIPPIN) | — | −12.0% | −73.4% | −88.6% | down next day | |
| Everlyn AI (LYN) | — | +131.4% | +56.7% | +52.4% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −3.2% | −5.3% | −5.7% | down next day | |
| SKYAI (SKYAI) | — | −7.4% | +213.6% | +213.2% | down next day | |
| Portal To Bitcoin (PTB) | — | −15.9% | −17.7% | −18.1% | down next day | |
| Capricorn (APR) | — | +1.4% | +87.0% | +82.9% | up next day | |
| Bulla (BULLA) | — | −2.2% | −19.3% | +8.7% | down next day | |
| Aria.AI (ARIA) | — | −1.3% | −31.7% | −4.3% | down next day | |
| Trusta.AI (TA) | — | −14.5% | −18.5% | +4.3% | down next day | |
| Bitrue Coin (BTR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SKYAI (SKYAI) | — | +1.7% | +2.9% | +23.0% | up next day | |
| Bulla (BULLA) | — | −50.1% | −60.9% | −44.5% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +4.2% | −22.9% | −10.4% | up next day | |
| Portal To Bitcoin (PTB) | — | +3.0% | −32.6% | −19.2% | up next day | |
| Quack AI (Q) | — | −11.3% | +3.3% | +16.7% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 119 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 44% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 52 of the 119 measured past cases of funding extreme highs of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 16, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 36% to 51% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 119.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 39% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 125 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme high with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.