How often it went up18 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage surges of DEX and DeFi tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 18 of the 22 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 12 of those 18 closed higher — a base rate of 67%, with a 90% range of 47% to 82%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 12 of the 18 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (67%).
- The typical day-30 move was +18.5%, the best +270.1% and the worst −43.6%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −3.9% vs BTC and beat it in 44.4% of 18 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 18 as of Oct 14, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage surges of DEX and DeFi tokens →
Every past case22 cases
Every past usage surge behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 22 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Derive (DRV) | 2.5% of circ. | +12.7% | +270.1% | +261.6% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.1% of circ. | −2.6% | +33.6% | +12.0% | down next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.1% of circ. | −2.2% | +36.9% | +37.9% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 3.4% of circ. | −7.5% | +14.3% | +20.8% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.0% of circ. | +26.0% | +73.6% | +75.0% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.0% of circ. | +0.6% | +28.5% | +12.6% | sideways next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Derive (DRV) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.1% of circ. | +4.0% | −9.7% | −4.9% | up next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.6% of circ. | +3.3% | +120.6% | +104.1% | up next day | |
| Derive (DRV) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 3.7% of circ. | −3.8% | +22.6% | −15.6% | down next day | |
| Ether.fi (ETHFI) | 2.3% of circ. | +1.6% | +27.9% | −13.8% | up next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.0% of circ. | +7.9% | +3.4% | −3.0% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.1% of circ. | −6.6% | −1.0% | −7.4% | down next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.7% of circ. | +7.4% | −8.3% | −5.9% | up next day | |
| Ether.fi (ETHFI) | 3.0% of circ. | +1.1% | −43.6% | −29.6% | up next day | |
| Derive (DRV) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.0% of circ. | −0.2% | −29.4% | −22.3% | sideways next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.2% of circ. | +10.6% | −31.7% | −19.7% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 3.1% of circ. | +22.6% | +4.6% | +7.7% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.9% of circ. | +21.8% | +31.9% | −16.6% | up next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 18 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 67% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 12 of the 18 measured past cases of usage surges of DEX and DeFi tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 47% to 82% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 18.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 18.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 22 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.