How often it went up79 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage surges of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: 79 of the 128 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 36 of those 79 closed higher — a base rate of 46%, with a 90% range of 37% to 55%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 28 of the 79 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (35%).
- The typical day-30 move was −9.8%, the best +92.0% and the worst −73.6%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −5.7% vs BTC and beat it in 35.4% of 79 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 43% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage surges of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case128 cases
Every past usage surge behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 128 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Mamo (MAMO) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | 2.3% of circ. | −2.2% | −17.4% | −17.8% | down next day | |
| API3 (API3) | 2.5% of circ. | −3.3% | −7.5% | −13.6% | down next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | 2.6% of circ. | +3.4% | +11.4% | +2.0% | up next day | |
| SoSoValue (SOSO) | 2.0% of circ. | +1.7% | +3.2% | +2.7% | up next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Overtime (OVER) | 2.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeX Token (APEX) | 2.3% of circ. | −1.8% | +9.4% | +9.1% | down next day | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | 2.2% of circ. | +4.8% | +22.4% | +22.2% | up next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | 2.0% of circ. | −3.4% | −6.4% | −4.7% | down next day | |
| Minswap (MIN) | 2.6% of circ. | +6.7% | +11.8% | +7.7% | up next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | 13.5% of circ. | +2.3% | +34.6% | +30.5% | up next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | 3.1% of circ. | +8.8% | +9.9% | +5.8% | up next day | |
| Streamflow (STREAM) | 2.5% of circ. | +3.4% | +14.4% | +20.7% | up next day | |
| Aquarius (AQUA) | 4.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SaucerSwap (SAUCE) | 3.1% of circ. | −6.5% | −30.6% | −16.8% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Limitless (LMTS) | 2.4% of circ. | +1.0% | −15.0% | +4.4% | up next day | |
| Mamo (MAMO) | 2.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Metadium (META) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Usual (USUAL) | 24.8% of circ. | −3.6% | +14.3% | −5.0% | down next day | |
| stake.link (SDL) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | 13.6% of circ. | +0.6% | +6.9% | −3.9% | sideways next day | |
| Stader (SD) | 3.5% of circ. | +0.1% | −2.5% | −6.6% | sideways next day | |
| Alchemix (ALCX) | 33.8% of circ. | −19.1% | −26.5% | −33.4% | down next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | 2.3% of circ. | −2.9% | −9.8% | −16.7% | down next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | 7.5% of circ. | −3.1% | +19.4% | +18.4% | down next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | 2.7% of circ. | −2.3% | −20.9% | −17.9% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | 4.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | 2.2% of circ. | −10.0% | −13.1% | −3.0% | down next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | 2.1% of circ. | −12.8% | −9.6% | +0.5% | down next day | |
| NAVI Protocol (NAVX) | 2.5% of circ. | −9.6% | +2.3% | +12.3% | down next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | 2.8% of circ. | +4.7% | −19.3% | −13.7% | up next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | 2.6% of circ. | +1.7% | +0.9% | +6.5% | up next day | |
| Suilend (SEND) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Definitive (EDGE) | 2.9% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Dolomite (DOLO) | 2.1% of circ. | +0.1% | −25.4% | −1.4% | sideways next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Veranta (AVNT) | 2.0% of circ. | −9.7% | −28.3% | −23.5% | down next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | 3.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | 2.5% of circ. | −3.5% | −10.0% | −15.1% | down next day | |
| Limitless (LMTS) | 8.9% of circ. | −3.9% | −34.2% | −32.8% | down next day | |
| Lombard (BARD) | 133.6% of circ. | +3.7% | +9.2% | +9.2% | up next day | |
| Alchemix (ALCX) | 3.4% of circ. | +3.4% | −24.7% | −21.2% | up next day | |
| Sport.Fun (FUN) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| NAVI Protocol (NAVX) | 2.4% of circ. | +1.2% | −38.2% | −28.8% | up next day | |
| BankrCoin (BNKR) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | 2.0% of circ. | +3.2% | +5.5% | +18.8% | up next day | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | 2.5% of circ. | −8.6% | −6.3% | +7.1% | down next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | 2.0% of circ. | −10.0% | −29.5% | −16.1% | down next day | |
| Lista DAO (LISTA) | 2.2% of circ. | +18.1% | −19.2% | −13.2% | up next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | 2.2% of circ. | +3.2% | −26.0% | −30.1% | up next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | 2.1% of circ. | −25.2% | −65.9% | −64.5% | down next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | 2.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | 2.8% of circ. | −7.8% | −41.2% | −40.9% | down next day | |
| SynFutures (F) | 2.2% of circ. | −1.4% | +82.3% | +84.2% | down next day | |
| Overtime (OVER) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | 2.5% of circ. | +0.6% | −3.3% | −5.7% | sideways next day | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | 2.4% of circ. | −9.2% | +49.6% | +36.0% | down next day | |
| Definitive (EDGE) | 2.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Spark (SPK) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | 2.1% of circ. | +7.0% | +47.5% | +12.6% | up next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | 2.5% of circ. | +10.8% | +92.0% | +57.1% | up next day | |
| Power Protocol (POWER) | 229020.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lista DAO (LISTA) | 2.0% of circ. | −5.3% | −10.8% | −18.2% | down next day | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | 2.9% of circ. | +0.9% | −4.9% | −6.0% | sideways next day | |
| Ankr (ANKR) | 8.3% of circ. | −2.1% | −7.7% | −8.4% | down next day | |
| Usual (USUAL) | 3.1% of circ. | +1.3% | −9.5% | −10.8% | up next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | 2.4% of circ. | −11.5% | −37.2% | −28.4% | down next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | 2.7% of circ. | +24.1% | +30.7% | +34.6% | up next day | |
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | 2.7% of circ. | +4.8% | −15.7% | −14.7% | up next day | |
| Dolomite (DOLO) | 2.9% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lista DAO (LISTA) | 2.6% of circ. | −4.3% | −31.0% | −15.8% | down next day | |
| Usual (USUAL) | 2.1% of circ. | −6.5% | −30.6% | −16.8% | down next day | |
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | 3.0% of circ. | −3.0% | +3.6% | +17.4% | down next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | 2.0% of circ. | +9.2% | −15.7% | +0.7% | up next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | 2.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | 2.6% of circ. | −7.0% | −32.9% | −21.7% | down next day | |
| Renzo (REZ) | 2.3% of circ. | −10.2% | −57.4% | −56.9% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Power Protocol (POWER) | 4443.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Usual (USUAL) | 2.1% of circ. | −6.2% | −73.6% | −80.0% | down next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | 2.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeX Token (APEX) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | 2.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | 6.4% of circ. | −6.3% | +1.5% | +1.6% | down next day | |
| Spark (SPK) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | 2.3% of circ. | −6.0% | −16.9% | −11.6% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | 2.1% of circ. | +7.7% | −7.5% | −3.8% | up next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Suilend (SEND) | 2.9% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | 2.3% of circ. | +6.2% | +31.0% | +34.7% | up next day | |
| SynFutures (F) | 2.9% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | 2.5% of circ. | −5.3% | −42.9% | −39.1% | down next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | 2.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | 2.3% of circ. | −2.8% | −14.9% | −26.2% | down next day | |
| Lista DAO (LISTA) | 2.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SaucerSwap (SAUCE) | 2.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orderly Network (ORDER) | 4.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | 2.1% of circ. | +1.8% | −12.2% | −20.5% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | 20.9% of circ. | −5.9% | −8.4% | −5.5% | down next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | 2.1% of circ. | −3.2% | −11.0% | −13.7% | down next day | |
| Osmosis (OSMO) | 2.0% of circ. | −1.6% | −23.1% | −25.8% | down next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | 19.8% of circ. | +5.2% | −12.9% | −1.6% | up next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | 2.2% of circ. | 0.0% | −14.7% | −3.4% | sideways next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | 2.4% of circ. | +6.0% | +5.6% | −11.6% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Ankr (ANKR) | 2.0% of circ. | +4.0% | +34.2% | +6.0% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | 2.0% of circ. | −4.4% | +8.2% | +3.8% | down next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | 3.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ankr (ANKR) | 2.0% of circ. | −15.1% | −30.7% | −14.4% | down next day | |
| BENQI (QI) | 2.3% of circ. | +2.0% | −10.9% | −5.3% | up next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | 2.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | 2.0% of circ. | −8.4% | −49.9% | −23.5% | down next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | 2.0% of circ. | +1.7% | +6.0% | −0.3% | up next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Balancer (BAL) | 2.3% of circ. | −9.3% | +9.0% | +26.5% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | 14.0% of circ. | +14.6% | −23.4% | −27.1% | up next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 79 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 46% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 36 of the 79 measured past cases of usage surges of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 37% to 55% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 79.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 43% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 128 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.