How often it went up21 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage surges of large-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 21 of the 25 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 11 of those 21 closed higher — a base rate of 52%, with a 90% range of 35% to 69%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 13 of the 20 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (65%).
- The typical day-30 move was +8.3%, the best +114.9% and the worst −23.4%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran +9.8% vs BTC and beat it in 60.0% of 20 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 46% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 62% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 20 days ago · NEAR Near Protocol next day +14.3% · 7 days +11.0% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage surges of large-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case25 cases
Every past usage surge behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 25 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | 2.1% of circ. | +14.3% | in 10 days | in 10 days | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | 2.0% of circ. | +5.7% | +54.6% | +45.0% | up next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | 2.1% of circ. | −7.7% | +114.9% | +106.3% | down next day | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | 2.3% of circ. | −0.5% | +22.5% | +10.7% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | 2.0% of circ. | +2.5% | +11.6% | +9.3% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | 2.1% of circ. | +17.2% | −20.6% | −11.8% | up next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | 20.0% of circ. | +10.9% | +15.8% | +19.8% | up next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | 2.0% of circ. | −10.3% | −11.3% | −8.8% | down next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | 16.6% of circ. | +0.8% | +28.0% | +15.6% | sideways next day | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | 2.1% of circ. | −0.7% | +94.1% | +81.9% | sideways next day | |
| TRON (TRX) | 2.1% of circ. | +5.1% | −3.8% | −2.7% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | 2.2% of circ. | −4.6% | −23.4% | −27.2% | down next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | 2.1% of circ. | +3.2% | +56.4% | +46.5% | up next day | |
| TRON (TRX) | 2.0% of circ. | +3.0% | +5.1% | −7.8% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | 2.1% of circ. | −7.5% | −1.0% | −12.0% | down next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Tether (USDT) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| TRON (TRX) | 2.1% of circ. | −0.7% | −18.4% | +1.2% | sideways next day | |
| Tether (USDT) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| TRON (TRX) | 2.1% of circ. | −19.1% | +11.4% | +16.1% | down next day | |
| TRON (TRX) | 2.4% of circ. | +3.5% | +4.9% | −15.4% | up next day | |
| TRON (TRX) | 2.1% of circ. | −3.5% | +94.7% | +68.5% | down next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| TRON (TRX) | 2.2% of circ. | +6.2% | −9.2% | −63.7% | up next day | |
| TRON (TRX) | 2.2% of circ. | −8.4% | +4.5% | +10.3% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 21 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 52% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 11 of the 21 measured past cases of usage surges of large-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 35% to 69% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 21.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 46% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 62% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 25 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.