PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Updated

Pattern · usage slumps · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-28

Usage slumps of small-cap tokens outside the big categories: all 160 measured cases

usage slump category · othersize · small⚠ flipped on recent cases 218 cases on record last 5 cases: 1 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the week after a usage slump?

higher the next day

42%

68 of 160 past cases

42% of past cases were higher (90% range 36-49%)

90% range 36%–49%

higher after 30 days

38%

59 of 155 cases measured after 30 days

38% of past cases were higher (90% range 32-45%)

90% range 32%–45% · typical move −7.2%

typical next day
−0.8%
typical after 30 days
−7.2%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−8.5%
best after 30 days
+379.6%
worst after 30 days
−56.8%
30 days: up · sideways · down
42 · 33 · 80

⚠ recent-cases check · flipped: 51% → 30% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

USAGE DOWNall usage slumps against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
−1−6…+4
7 days
−2−7…+3
30 days
−2−6…+4

No clear edge 1, 7 or 30 days later: no 95% range clears the same coins' ordinary days with both halves of history agreeing (497 cases on 384 separate days). Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 4 coins.

Every past usage slump, 30 days on 155 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 33 rose · ▼ 73 fell · ◆ 49 sideways (±8.6% over 30 days)

Each line is one past usage slump: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 155 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

Usage slumps of small-cap tokens outside the big categories: 160 of the 218 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 68 of those 160 closed higher — a base rate of 42%, with a 90% range of 36% to 49%, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up160 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

Usage slumps of small-cap tokens outside the big categories: 160 of the 218 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 68 of those 160 closed higher — a base rate of 42%, with a 90% range of 36% to 49%, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.

  • By day 30, 59 of the 155 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (38%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −7.2%, the best +379.6% and the worst −56.8%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −8.5% vs BTC and beat it in 25.8% of 155 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 51% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 30% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • today · STG Stargate Finance 30 days lands
  • today · SYRUP Syrup Token 30 days lands
  • 5 days ago · EIGEN Eigenlayer next day −6.1% · 30 days lands
  • 11 days ago · MET Meteora next day −9.6% · 7 days −15.3% · 30 days lands
  • 14 days ago · PLSX PulseX 30 days lands
  • 17 days ago · CHIP USD.AI next day −14.4% · 7 days −39.8% · 30 days lands

NO DATA YET No scheduled usage slump meets every condition of this pattern as of Oct 28, 2026.

Every past case218 cases

Every past usage slump behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 218 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

218 past cases of usage slumps of small-cap tokens outside the big categories, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Stargate Finance (STG) — tomorrow in 30 days in 30 days not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — tomorrow in 30 days in 30 days not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — −6.1% in 25 days in 25 days down next day
Meteora (MET) — −9.6% in 19 days in 19 days down next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — in 16 days in 16 days not measured yet
USD.AI (CHIP) — −14.4% in 13 days in 13 days down next day
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) — +2.5% in 12 days in 12 days up next day
THORChain (RUNE) — −2.5% in 10 days in 10 days down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — −1.1% −17.5% −11.7% down next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) — +15.5% −0.2% −7.7% up next day
USD.AI (CHIP) — −12.3% +23.8% +17.8% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — −6.7% +15.3% +10.0% down next day
USD.AI (CHIP) — +19.9% +79.0% +58.0% up next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — −2.3% +16.8% −4.2% down next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) — −0.1% +7.7% −15.8% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — −2.3% +5.9% −15.9% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — +5.9% +27.0% +3.8% up next day
DoubleZero (2Z) — −1.3% −28.6% −28.4% down next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — −2.6% −30.4% −27.8% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +3.2% −1.5% −1.0% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — +3.9% +13.3% +5.8% up next day
DoubleZero (2Z) — +5.6% +1.1% −2.9% up next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — +14.3% +38.1% +34.0% up next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) — +2.3% −0.8% +17.5% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) — −2.1% −38.0% −12.8% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — +3.7% +6.1% +26.1% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — −2.6% −32.8% −29.1% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
Velo (VELO) — −9.4% +5.0% −8.5% down next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — +1.3% +15.1% −2.3% up next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) — +2.2% +71.1% +56.1% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) — −0.5% +28.1% +11.6% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — −3.9% −4.0% −11.6% down next day
USD.AI (CHIP) — — — — not measured yet
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −5.6% −7.2% −4.6% down next day
USD.AI (CHIP) — — — — not measured yet
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — −6.5% −2.8% −7.2% down next day
Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) — — — — not measured yet
Jito (JTO) — +23.7% +10.6% +7.1% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) — −0.7% +4.4% +0.9% sideways next day
MetaMask USD (MUSD) — — — — not measured yet
Cap (CAP) — — — — not measured yet
Convex Finance (CVX) — −17.0% +10.2% +20.3% down next day
Meteora (MET) — −5.2% −28.4% −18.4% down next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) — −8.9% −21.1% −11.1% down next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — −15.3% −36.9% −18.6% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — −1.8% −42.2% −14.0% down next day
Centrifuge (CFG) — — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — −1.0% −48.8% −20.8% sideways next day
GMX (GMX) — +1.3% −24.0% −10.6% up next day
2025
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — −4.2% +0.2% −0.9% down next day
Orca (ORCA) — −0.7% −5.0% −6.8% sideways next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) — −3.0% −4.8% −7.2% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) — −4.5% +2.1% +1.0% down next day
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) — — — — not measured yet
GMX (GMX) — −1.5% −7.2% −8.3% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — −0.8% −11.3% −9.7% sideways next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — −8.6% −20.3% −18.1% down next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) — +1.1% −2.5% −3.0% up next day
SUN (SUN) — −0.7% −8.3% −5.3% sideways next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) — −11.2% −23.2% −27.3% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — −13.3% −40.3% −32.2% down next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) — −3.5% −27.8% −16.2% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) — −2.5% −16.1% −4.5% down next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) — −3.9% −35.6% −24.4% down next day
USD.AI (CHIP) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — +2.2% −36.3% −18.8% up next day
LayerZero (ZRO) — −1.7% −21.9% −0.1% down next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — +3.2% −47.2% −26.0% up next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) — −7.9% −41.5% −19.9% down next day
Stargate Finance (STG) — −3.1% −27.1% −5.5% down next day
GMX (GMX) — +17.8% +4.6% +10.6% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — +0.9% +8.2% +16.4% sideways next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) — −0.3% −5.0% −9.1% sideways next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) — — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — −0.6% +37.3% +31.8% sideways next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −0.7% −17.5% −15.6% sideways next day
LayerZero (ZRO) — +0.3% +3.0% +0.6% sideways next day
Orca (ORCA) — −8.1% −17.8% −13.6% down next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — +4.5% +7.2% +11.3% up next day
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) — — — — not measured yet
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — −0.9% −8.8% −6.2% sideways next day
THORChain (RUNE) — +1.0% −2.7% −8.0% sideways next day
SUN (SUN) — +0.3% +25.5% +18.9% sideways next day
Meteora (MET) — — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — −9.8% −2.7% −15.4% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
Reserve Rights (RSR) — −9.1% −23.7% −22.0% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — +11.0% +12.8% +22.4% up next day
LayerZero (ZRO) — −2.8% −40.0% −33.2% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
GMX (GMX) — +9.9% +19.5% −8.1% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — −9.7% −2.5% −15.5% down next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) — −0.4% −10.6% −18.9% sideways next day
Fluid (FLUID) — — — — not measured yet
Reserve Rights (RSR) — +1.9% +30.4% +28.2% up next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — +0.7% −16.6% −17.8% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
GMX (GMX) — +8.2% +3.1% +1.2% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) — −2.6% −1.2% −1.7% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — +4.1% −42.2% −38.7% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) — +3.0% −11.0% −7.5% up next day
Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) — — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
GMX (GMX) — +1.3% −25.9% −13.5% up next day
Jito (JTO) — +13.0% −17.9% −4.7% up next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) — +4.2% −18.0% −5.7% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) — +4.4% −20.8% −4.1% up next day
Orca (ORCA) — +2.3% −29.8% −11.2% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) — +4.9% +4.5% +21.2% up next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — −3.5% −44.2% −31.5% down next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) — +16.0% −29.7% −31.9% up next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — +4.6% −14.3% −17.8% up next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — −10.3% −52.4% −51.9% down next day
GMX (GMX) — −8.3% −35.4% −35.0% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
2024
DYDX Chain (DYDX) — −2.1% −28.6% −41.4% down next day
SUN (SUN) — −2.1% −20.3% −31.0% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) — −4.6% −56.8% −63.2% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — +21.9% +61.7% +18.8% up next day
Venus (XVS) — −4.6% −6.2% −42.8% down next day
SUN (SUN) — −1.8% +16.8% −18.2% down next day
SUN (SUN) — −0.4% −21.1% −35.5% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) — +3.1% +22.2% +16.5% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −3.1% +8.0% −2.5% down next day
Jito (JTO) — −7.9% −5.5% −9.2% down next day
LayerZero (ZRO) — −4.8% +11.6% +11.7% down next day
Compound (COMP) — −0.7% +2.9% +9.2% sideways next day
Fluid (FLUID) — — — — not measured yet
LayerZero (ZRO) — +10.2% +27.9% +25.0% up next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — −4.3% +0.8% −4.4% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
SUN (SUN) — +0.0% −12.2% −9.6% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) — — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) — −3.9% −8.7% −16.5% down next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) — +10.9% +37.5% +33.1% up next day
SUN (SUN) — +8.0% −1.5% +2.5% up next day
GMX (GMX) — −2.5% −43.6% −30.8% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — +1.4% −24.8% −16.3% up next day
Venus (XVS) — +0.2% −34.6% −26.9% sideways next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −3.4% −40.6% −34.5% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) — −5.2% +23.9% −21.6% down next day
Venus (XVS) — +0.1% −3.5% −25.5% sideways next day
2023
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) — −7.1% +266.9% +227.5% down next day
GMX (GMX) — −2.1% +22.8% −3.8% down next day
yearn.finance (YFI) — −6.0% +4.9% −21.7% down next day
Axie Infinity (AXS) — +2.2% +1.4% −4.9% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) — −3.7% +6.0% +2.0% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −6.0% +6.4% −1.5% down next day
yearn.finance (YFI) — +2.0% −7.3% −9.3% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
yearn.finance (YFI) — +3.5% −17.9% −6.5% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) — −20.2% −7.4% −21.2% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) — — — — not measured yet
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +0.2% −16.1% −9.3% sideways next day
yearn.finance (YFI) — +2.0% −20.9% −15.3% up next day
Axie Infinity (AXS) — +0.1% −13.0% −11.5% sideways next day
MetaMask USD (MUSD) — — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) — −6.7% −20.1% −36.9% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
2022
yearn.finance (YFI) — −4.1% −14.4% −16.2% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) — +8.1% +3.7% +2.7% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) — +2.9% −7.6% −14.1% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) — −1.1% −27.4% −6.4% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
yearn.finance (YFI) — −1.4% +0.6% −3.4% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) — +3.7% +1.3% −4.8% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) — +3.6% −13.0% −10.8% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) — −10.5% −17.5% −4.7% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) — −4.8% +19.1% +1.9% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) — −16.0% −43.6% −6.5% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +10.6% −14.5% +11.9% up next day
Axie Infinity (AXS) — +9.8% −24.1% −15.6% up next day
Compound (COMP) — +16.7% −32.6% −24.2% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) — — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) — −11.0% +18.9% +3.4% down next day
Axie Infinity (AXS) — +4.7% +5.8% −1.0% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) — +11.9% +25.0% +18.3% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) — −2.5% −19.0% −21.8% down next day
2021
THORChain (RUNE) — −1.6% −10.1% −0.5% down next day
Axie Infinity (AXS) — +9.2% −21.3% −12.5% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) — +8.2% +59.6% +70.9% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) — +17.6% −37.0% −19.1% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) — +4.1% +10.3% −14.4% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) — −6.2% +11.0% −23.2% down next day
yearn.finance (YFI) — +9.2% +1.5% −19.8% up next day
Axie Infinity (AXS) — −4.1% +379.6% +386.2% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) — −14.1% −33.8% −30.1% down next day
Compound (COMP) — −16.3% −39.2% −29.2% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) — −12.1% −44.0% −19.9% down next day
2020
yearn.finance (YFI) — +14.2% −49.3% −71.4% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — — — — not measured yet
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — — — — not measured yet
Compound (COMP) — — — — not measured yet

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 160 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and market-cap bucket), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answered from this count

What does the 42% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 68 of the 160 measured past cases of usage slumps of small-cap tokens outside the big categories closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 36% to 49% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 160.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 51% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 30% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 218 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every usage slump with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.