How often it went up106 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage slumps of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: 106 of the 140 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 44 of those 106 closed higher — a base rate of 42%, with a 90% range of 34% to 49%, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- By day 30, 39 of the 105 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (37%).
- The typical day-30 move was −7.4%, the best +379.6% and the worst −56.8%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −7.2% vs BTC and beat it in 25.7% of 105 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 50% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 29% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 5 days ago · EIGEN Eigenlayer next day −6.1% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage slump can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage slumps of small-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case140 cases
Every past usage slump behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 140 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | −6.1% | in 25 days | in 25 days | down next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | +19.9% | +79.0% | +58.0% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | −2.3% | +16.8% | −4.2% | down next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | −2.6% | −30.4% | −27.8% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +3.2% | −1.5% | −1.0% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | +3.9% | +13.3% | +5.8% | up next day | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | — | +5.6% | +1.1% | −2.9% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | +14.3% | +38.1% | +34.0% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | +1.3% | +15.1% | −2.3% | up next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | +2.2% | +71.1% | +56.1% | up next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −0.5% | +28.1% | +11.6% | sideways next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | −3.9% | −4.0% | −11.6% | down next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −5.6% | −7.2% | −4.6% | down next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | −6.5% | −2.8% | −7.2% | down next day | |
| Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Jito (JTO) | — | +23.7% | +10.6% | +7.1% | up next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −0.7% | +4.4% | +0.9% | sideways next day | |
| MetaMask USD (MUSD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cap (CAP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | −17.0% | +10.2% | +20.3% | down next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | −5.2% | −28.4% | −18.4% | down next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | −8.9% | −21.1% | −11.1% | down next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | −15.3% | −36.9% | −18.6% | down next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | −1.8% | −42.2% | −14.0% | down next day | |
| Centrifuge (CFG) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | −4.2% | +0.2% | −0.9% | down next day | |
| Orca (ORCA) | — | −0.7% | −5.0% | −6.8% | sideways next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | −3.0% | −4.8% | −7.2% | down next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −4.5% | +2.1% | +1.0% | down next day | |
| Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −1.5% | −7.2% | −8.3% | down next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | −0.8% | −11.3% | −9.7% | sideways next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | −8.6% | −20.3% | −18.1% | down next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | +1.1% | −2.5% | −3.0% | up next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | −0.7% | −8.3% | −5.3% | sideways next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | −11.2% | −23.2% | −27.3% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | −13.3% | −40.3% | −32.2% | down next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | −3.5% | −27.8% | −16.2% | down next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −2.5% | −16.1% | −4.5% | down next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | −3.9% | −35.6% | −24.4% | down next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | +2.2% | −36.3% | −18.8% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | +3.2% | −47.2% | −26.0% | up next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | −7.9% | −41.5% | −19.9% | down next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | — | −3.1% | −27.1% | −5.5% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +17.8% | +4.6% | +10.6% | up next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | −0.3% | −5.0% | −9.1% | sideways next day | |
| Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | −0.6% | +37.3% | +31.8% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −0.7% | −17.5% | −15.6% | sideways next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | — | +0.3% | +3.0% | +0.6% | sideways next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | −9.7% | −2.5% | −15.5% | down next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | −0.4% | −10.6% | −18.9% | sideways next day | |
| Fluid (FLUID) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | +1.9% | +30.4% | +28.2% | up next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | +0.7% | −16.6% | −17.8% | sideways next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +8.2% | +3.1% | +1.2% | up next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −2.6% | −1.2% | −1.7% | down next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | +4.1% | −42.2% | −38.7% | up next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +3.0% | −11.0% | −7.5% | up next day | |
| Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +1.3% | −25.9% | −13.5% | up next day | |
| Jito (JTO) | — | +13.0% | −17.9% | −4.7% | up next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | +4.2% | −18.0% | −5.7% | up next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | +4.4% | −20.8% | −4.1% | up next day | |
| Orca (ORCA) | — | +2.3% | −29.8% | −11.2% | up next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | +16.0% | −29.7% | −31.9% | up next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | +4.6% | −14.3% | −17.8% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | −10.3% | −52.4% | −51.9% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −8.3% | −35.4% | −35.0% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | −2.1% | −28.6% | −41.4% | down next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | −2.1% | −20.3% | −31.0% | down next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −4.6% | −56.8% | −63.2% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | −0.4% | −21.1% | −35.5% | sideways next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | +3.1% | +22.2% | +16.5% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −3.1% | +8.0% | −2.5% | down next day | |
| Jito (JTO) | — | −7.9% | −5.5% | −9.2% | down next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | — | −4.8% | +11.6% | +11.7% | down next day | |
| Compound (COMP) | — | −0.7% | +2.9% | +9.2% | sideways next day | |
| Fluid (FLUID) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | — | +10.2% | +27.9% | +25.0% | up next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | −4.3% | +0.8% | −4.4% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Venus (XVS) | — | −3.9% | −8.7% | −16.5% | down next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | +10.9% | +37.5% | +33.1% | up next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | +2.2% | +1.4% | −4.9% | up next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −3.7% | +6.0% | +2.0% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −6.0% | +6.4% | −1.5% | down next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +2.0% | −7.3% | −9.3% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | −20.2% | −7.4% | −21.2% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | −4.1% | −14.4% | −16.2% | down next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | +8.1% | +3.7% | +2.7% | up next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +2.9% | −7.6% | −14.1% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | −1.4% | +0.6% | −3.4% | down next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | +3.7% | +1.3% | −4.8% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | +3.6% | −13.0% | −10.8% | up next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | −10.5% | −17.5% | −4.7% | down next day | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | −4.8% | +19.1% | +1.9% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −16.0% | −43.6% | −6.5% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +10.6% | −14.5% | +11.9% | up next day | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | +9.8% | −24.1% | −15.6% | up next day | |
| Compound (COMP) | — | +16.7% | −32.6% | −24.2% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | −11.0% | +18.9% | +3.4% | down next day | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | +4.7% | +5.8% | −1.0% | up next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | +11.9% | +25.0% | +18.3% | up next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | −2.5% | −19.0% | −21.8% | down next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −1.6% | −10.1% | −0.5% | down next day | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | +9.2% | −21.3% | −12.5% | up next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +8.2% | +59.6% | +70.9% | up next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | +17.6% | −37.0% | −19.1% | up next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −6.2% | +11.0% | −23.2% | down next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +9.2% | +1.5% | −19.8% | up next day | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | −4.1% | +379.6% | +386.2% | down next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −14.1% | −33.8% | −30.1% | down next day | |
| Compound (COMP) | — | −16.3% | −39.2% | −29.2% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | −12.1% | −44.0% | −19.9% | down next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +14.2% | −49.3% | −71.4% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Compound (COMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 106 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 42% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 44 of the 106 measured past cases of usage slumps of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 34% to 49% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 106.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 50% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 29% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 140 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage slump with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.