What moves ELA · PROVEN · measured Oct 6, 2026
When it rose three times its usual daily move, ELA ended lower the next day 87% of the time
Against 58% on any day, from 15 cases (it ended higher in 13% of them); the latest was Jul 23, 2026. On average ELA moved −4.4% the next day, against −0.3% on any day. Past patterns, not financial advice.
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After it
87%
ended lower the next day
On any day
58%
the same coin, from any day
Cases
15
the latest Jul 23, 2026
Average move
−4.4%
against −0.3% on any day
How it is proven
ELA is tested on its own history every night: each cause against ELA's own moves from any day, its biggest days capped, so one giant pump cannot make a driver. Proven means past the cut for testing thousands of causes at once, both halves of its history leaning the same way, ELA ending lower more often than on any day by a clear margin, and 12 cases or more.
Source: ELA's own daily closes, its events and the market-wide releases on record · measured · the method in full