How often it went up125 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Governance votes of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 125 of the 133 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 60 of those 125 closed higher — a base rate of 48%, with a 90% range of 41% to 55%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- By day 30, 46 of the 125 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (37%).
- The typical day-30 move was −8.4%, the best +162.0% and the worst −41.3%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −7.9% vs BTC and beat it in 28.0% of 125 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 47% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled governance vote can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Governance votes of small-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case133 cases
Every past governance vote behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 133 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | ||||||
| GMX (GMX) | — | −8.0% | −1.2% | −0.4% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −5.6% | +9.9% | +16.7% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −1.3% | +3.9% | −6.0% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −3.8% | +3.6% | −11.4% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +2.7% | +12.2% | −11.0% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +8.8% | −31.6% | −14.6% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +7.9% | −7.5% | +9.2% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +4.6% | −37.2% | −34.3% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +10.4% | −27.2% | −33.6% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | −13.2% | −13.7% | −20.0% | down next day | |
| BIO Protocol (BIO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −7.9% | −16.0% | −20.4% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −4.8% | −30.7% | −30.3% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −3.0% | −6.6% | −8.1% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +6.8% | −0.8% | −4.0% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +4.7% | +41.7% | +22.1% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −5.6% | +12.2% | −24.4% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +4.8% | +25.4% | −6.8% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +0.2% | +16.5% | −15.6% | sideways next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +3.7% | −4.0% | −17.2% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +5.9% | +0.3% | −9.3% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −3.2% | −7.4% | +5.1% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +0.4% | −0.8% | +1.6% | sideways next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +0.1% | +2.6% | +4.5% | sideways next day | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | −4.4% | −6.4% | −3.5% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +0.9% | −10.4% | −1.0% | sideways next day | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | −7.9% | −23.0% | −9.7% | down next day | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | 0.0% | −20.6% | −6.6% | sideways next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +9.5% | −19.5% | −9.6% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +8.7% | −10.9% | +0.3% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −1.4% | −10.6% | +0.2% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +5.9% | −10.1% | −3.0% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +3.0% | −13.9% | −13.9% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −33.0% | −17.2% | −5.1% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −0.9% | −35.8% | −32.7% | sideways next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −1.0% | −26.2% | −23.0% | sideways next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −2.8% | −31.6% | −27.3% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +5.7% | −19.2% | −14.9% | up next day | |
| Safe (SAFE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −14.4% | −40.9% | −30.5% | down next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +14.6% | +6.4% | −5.1% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −0.9% | −12.5% | −42.4% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +3.1% | +5.5% | −30.2% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +8.6% | +32.4% | +6.3% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +2.0% | +62.7% | +8.7% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −7.1% | +48.4% | +1.9% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −0.3% | −25.5% | −23.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −6.0% | −20.3% | −17.3% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +0.0% | +19.1% | +25.9% | sideways next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +6.0% | −14.0% | −9.5% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −2.8% | +162.0% | +165.0% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −7.9% | −19.7% | −19.7% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −7.6% | +45.2% | +45.3% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −10.5% | +2.4% | −4.1% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +8.5% | −13.3% | −13.8% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +1.5% | +4.6% | −6.8% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +2.8% | +18.2% | +1.4% | up next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | −3.4% | −5.5% | −19.9% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −6.8% | +19.1% | +7.4% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +9.9% | +5.9% | −12.1% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −0.7% | −0.5% | −12.3% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +2.2% | +12.4% | −12.4% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +2.4% | +29.0% | +17.6% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | 0.0% | +20.6% | +9.3% | sideways next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −3.9% | +30.7% | +19.0% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −1.5% | +27.9% | +18.4% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −0.8% | +9.7% | −1.5% | sideways next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −1.7% | +20.8% | −8.3% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +0.6% | +37.5% | −0.6% | sideways next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −1.5% | +28.2% | +2.0% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −4.3% | +22.6% | −3.6% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +9.9% | +16.8% | −11.3% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +8.3% | +22.8% | −6.4% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −8.0% | −35.6% | −24.4% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −1.2% | −29.0% | −17.6% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +0.1% | −17.0% | −5.7% | sideways next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +5.4% | −21.6% | −8.8% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −1.5% | −32.7% | −20.0% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +8.7% | +7.2% | +10.4% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −8.2% | −11.0% | −6.3% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +1.2% | −10.3% | −7.9% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +10.6% | +4.9% | +7.3% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −2.4% | +5.1% | +8.5% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +2.2% | −7.0% | −6.3% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −8.5% | −22.5% | −9.7% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −1.9% | −19.4% | −12.6% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +1.1% | −4.4% | +1.1% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +3.0% | −17.3% | −11.8% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +1.2% | −26.7% | −22.9% | up next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | −4.1% | −22.0% | −16.7% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −6.1% | −16.9% | −11.0% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +2.3% | −21.2% | −9.8% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +1.5% | −27.6% | −17.2% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −0.7% | −15.5% | −17.9% | sideways next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +1.7% | −0.9% | −4.0% | up next day | |
| Safe (SAFE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +3.5% | −6.4% | −8.3% | up next day | |
| Safe (SAFE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −6.2% | −27.5% | −41.1% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +6.2% | −13.2% | −23.9% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −1.9% | −24.4% | −35.0% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +21.7% | +13.8% | −1.0% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −11.8% | −34.3% | −23.4% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +6.2% | −1.8% | +4.0% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −1.6% | −21.6% | −15.8% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −1.2% | +0.1% | +0.5% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +4.3% | −16.5% | −16.9% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +15.2% | +25.5% | +6.4% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −1.4% | +51.7% | +35.4% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −0.6% | +7.4% | −14.4% | sideways next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −0.4% | +45.4% | +7.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +11.8% | −8.4% | +7.8% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +5.9% | −24.1% | −3.3% | up next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −16.4% | −7.8% | +6.0% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −13.0% | −30.8% | −13.9% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −1.2% | −29.0% | −19.4% | down next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | −0.4% | −11.0% | −1.3% | sideways next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +16.2% | −9.2% | −1.5% | up next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | +3.0% | −29.0% | −10.2% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −8.1% | −20.6% | −3.8% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +2.7% | −22.4% | −9.4% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +4.4% | −12.9% | +1.1% | up next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −2.2% | −30.3% | −17.6% | down next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | −6.1% | −27.4% | −6.6% | down next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | −8.5% | −36.8% | −15.3% | down next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −9.8% | +40.6% | +60.6% | down next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | +4.8% | +39.8% | +41.1% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −3.9% | −9.5% | −7.8% | down next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | +8.6% | −41.3% | −31.2% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 125 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 48% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 60 of the 125 measured past cases of governance votes of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 41% to 55% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 125.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 47% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 133 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.