How often it went up128 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Governance votes of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 128 of the 128 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 79 of those 128 closed higher — a base rate of 62%, with a 90% range of 54% to 68%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- By day 30, 56 of the 128 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (44%).
- The typical day-30 move was −1.7%, the best +145.1% and the worst −48.7%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −1.1% vs BTC and beat it in 43.8% of 128 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 66% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 55% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled governance vote can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Governance votes of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case128 cases
Every past governance vote behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 128 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | ||||||
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +8.2% | +26.0% | +0.7% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +0.8% | −7.8% | +5.7% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.3% | +1.8% | +4.2% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +0.4% | −22.5% | −14.3% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −4.6% | −32.7% | −20.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −0.9% | +43.5% | +13.4% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.9% | +60.5% | +8.3% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +4.4% | +50.7% | −3.3% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −5.6% | +17.1% | −24.1% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +0.2% | −16.5% | −12.9% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −8.4% | −24.3% | −20.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.1% | −28.4% | −29.1% | up next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −0.9% | −26.9% | −28.8% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +0.3% | −24.0% | −26.9% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −1.6% | −29.0% | −27.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +11.6% | −0.4% | +9.6% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −3.4% | +15.6% | +12.5% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +5.6% | +23.0% | +22.6% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +4.0% | +52.2% | +40.1% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −1.8% | +22.4% | +6.9% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +6.2% | +12.7% | −10.3% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −5.5% | −3.1% | −20.2% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −3.3% | −12.0% | −26.4% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +27.5% | +14.6% | −3.4% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +7.7% | +21.0% | +10.4% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +19.1% | +50.5% | +36.1% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.4% | +79.6% | +69.7% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +5.4% | +145.1% | +118.8% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +6.1% | +138.9% | +108.8% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −4.4% | +125.6% | +96.6% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.0% | +98.4% | +59.8% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −4.9% | +75.1% | +38.9% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +0.4% | +56.4% | +30.2% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −0.3% | +5.8% | −22.0% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −2.5% | −19.6% | −8.4% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −1.2% | −15.7% | −4.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +0.9% | −14.8% | −4.2% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +0.7% | −13.8% | −3.0% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −0.1% | −17.0% | −4.4% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.0% | −12.9% | −0.2% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −1.2% | +0.5% | +4.2% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −2.5% | −1.2% | +3.5% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −5.2% | −5.5% | +0.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.2% | −0.8% | +3.3% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −3.9% | −2.3% | +2.2% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +12.3% | +4.4% | +9.3% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −12.4% | −30.7% | −24.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −4.3% | −30.9% | −24.2% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −5.3% | −36.0% | −30.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.3% | −36.2% | −31.4% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +5.5% | −40.5% | −35.0% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −5.1% | −43.8% | −38.2% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −9.3% | −46.5% | −42.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +0.0% | −46.2% | −44.6% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.3% | −46.2% | −41.0% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −4.5% | −48.7% | −39.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.2% | −48.6% | −37.7% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.6% | −27.2% | −31.5% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.2% | −26.5% | −29.6% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.2% | −24.1% | −31.6% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.1% | −26.7% | −35.4% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −2.3% | −11.3% | −8.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −1.4% | −12.5% | −9.5% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +5.4% | −2.0% | −26.7% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −2.1% | −4.2% | −30.2% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +4.2% | −1.0% | −36.9% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −0.9% | −8.5% | −27.8% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −3.2% | −9.7% | −30.0% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.8% | −9.9% | −26.9% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +5.2% | −4.3% | −23.3% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −1.9% | −11.0% | −21.6% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.2% | −1.2% | −24.6% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +8.1% | −2.6% | −17.4% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.0% | −8.1% | −19.6% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −2.1% | −17.0% | −12.2% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.4% | −13.8% | −9.4% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +9.1% | −9.2% | −4.7% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +6.9% | −6.8% | −1.0% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.6% | −6.9% | −3.6% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.8% | −1.4% | −4.2% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −1.7% | −3.4% | −2.9% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.2% | −0.3% | −2.1% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.4% | +1.0% | +0.6% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.6% | +2.4% | −0.0% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.4% | +3.9% | −0.6% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.1% | +8.2% | +1.7% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +4.6% | +11.0% | +3.7% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.5% | +13.9% | −1.2% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +7.5% | +19.1% | −0.1% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −3.9% | +8.8% | −2.2% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −0.9% | +14.2% | −2.4% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −2.2% | +5.1% | −0.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +3.9% | +9.7% | +0.5% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +7.5% | +19.0% | +3.5% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.8% | +21.1% | −2.9% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.8% | +23.7% | −3.2% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −0.1% | +37.4% | +3.3% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +3.0% | +33.5% | −0.7% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.4% | +35.4% | −0.9% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −2.6% | −15.9% | +0.9% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +4.1% | −14.6% | +6.7% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +4.3% | −10.3% | +8.7% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.6% | −8.8% | +5.4% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −9.5% | +9.7% | +23.6% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −1.8% | −2.4% | +7.2% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +5.9% | +0.1% | +15.2% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.3% | +1.7% | +13.3% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −4.4% | −1.2% | +12.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +14.0% | +6.8% | +19.5% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +10.9% | +15.3% | +20.0% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −1.7% | +16.1% | +23.2% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −0.2% | −13.6% | +4.2% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.3% | −11.8% | +3.7% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +6.7% | −17.6% | +2.5% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.3% | −11.0% | +7.6% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +14.6% | +25.8% | +34.5% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.7% | +29.8% | +40.2% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.9% | +33.6% | +35.3% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −4.3% | +24.3% | +27.3% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +22.5% | +47.9% | +44.7% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +2.8% | +40.5% | +31.4% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −2.8% | +38.1% | +33.9% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −0.3% | +28.2% | +22.7% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +9.0% | +41.1% | +16.2% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −5.7% | −23.3% | −17.1% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +3.7% | −30.2% | −28.0% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.3% | −25.6% | −13.6% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −3.3% | −27.6% | −17.5% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 128 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 62% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 79 of the 128 measured past cases of governance votes of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 54% to 68% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 128.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 66% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 55% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 128 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.