How often it went up50 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Governance votes of large-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: 50 of the 50 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 23 of those 50 closed higher — a base rate of 46%, with a 90% range of 35% to 57%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- By day 30, 27 of the 50 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (54%).
- The typical day-30 move was +3.0%, the best +115.8% and the worst −47.1%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −5.1% vs BTC and beat it in 38.0% of 50 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 43% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled governance vote can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Governance votes of large-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case50 cases
Every past governance vote behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 50 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +0.6% | −10.5% | −7.9% | sideways next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +1.0% | +9.1% | +4.1% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +2.2% | −5.7% | −8.9% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −0.1% | +17.2% | −6.5% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −2.3% | −11.0% | −27.8% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +3.8% | −16.1% | −17.9% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −14.5% | −29.4% | −16.9% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −7.8% | −25.5% | −15.8% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +5.6% | +14.9% | +4.4% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −5.0% | −1.3% | −0.2% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +3.2% | +8.8% | +10.9% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +7.5% | +14.4% | +16.7% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +8.5% | +6.7% | +10.4% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −0.4% | −20.4% | −25.6% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −3.9% | +42.7% | +31.7% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −0.8% | +52.3% | +41.8% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +3.2% | +24.5% | +12.6% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +1.5% | +4.2% | −0.9% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −4.9% | +0.6% | −2.2% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.7% | +115.8% | +67.7% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +0.3% | +21.1% | −3.2% | sideways next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +0.4% | −3.1% | −9.2% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −8.9% | −8.3% | −5.4% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −0.1% | −11.1% | −13.8% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.9% | −33.7% | −19.2% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.6% | +29.9% | +15.5% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +0.9% | +11.2% | −1.2% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −3.0% | +2.7% | −7.4% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +12.1% | +9.2% | −38.5% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −7.9% | −3.1% | −31.8% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −7.2% | −10.4% | −30.4% | down next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +0.2% | +24.4% | −9.8% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +1.1% | −11.8% | −10.6% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.1% | −15.3% | −12.8% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +10.8% | −4.6% | −7.2% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.5% | −5.2% | −6.6% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.8% | −9.6% | −10.3% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +7.0% | −2.3% | +11.2% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −4.2% | +4.1% | +3.9% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +2.2% | +3.6% | +5.8% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +2.4% | +24.9% | +9.3% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.6% | +66.4% | +49.6% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +4.7% | +3.3% | +35.8% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +3.4% | −47.1% | −19.4% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +0.4% | +10.2% | +6.9% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −3.8% | +5.6% | +3.6% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −5.7% | +24.3% | +15.0% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −5.2% | +7.0% | −4.8% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −2.9% | −20.2% | −13.8% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −9.7% | −32.5% | −34.1% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 50 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 46% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 23 of the 50 measured past cases of governance votes of large-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 35% to 57% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 50.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 43% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 50 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.