How often it went up13 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Unlocks of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply: 13 of the 14 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 5 of those 13 closed higher — a base rate of 38%, with a 90% range of 20% to 61%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- By day 30, 4 of the 12 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (33%).
- The typical day-30 move was −11.5%, the best +86.0% and the worst −46.6%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −7.4% vs BTC and beat it in 41.7% of 12 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 13 as of Oct 4, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD8 scheduled
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
8 scheduled unlocks meet every condition of this pattern. Each one is dated, and its move is measured from that day.
| Date | Token | Event | Size | When | Its odds come from |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethena (ENA) | ENA unlock: about 267.19M tokens (~2.65% of circulating), projected | 2.6% | in 2 days | this pattern | |
| Ethena (ENA) | ENA unlock: about 267.19M tokens (~2.65% of circulating), projected | 2.6% | in 33 days | this pattern | |
| Ethena (ENA) | ENA unlock: about 267.19M tokens (~2.65% of circulating), projected | 2.6% | in 63 days | this pattern | |
| Ethena (ENA) | ENA unlock: about 267.19M tokens (~2.65% of circulating), projected | 2.6% | in 94 days | this pattern | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | JUP unlock: 98.42M tokens (2.97% of circulating) | 3.0% | in 119 days | this pattern | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | JUP unlock: 104.90M tokens (3.16% of circulating) | 3.2% | in 120 days | this pattern | |
| Ethena (ENA) | ENA unlock: about 267.19M tokens (~2.65% of circulating), projected | 2.6% | in 125 days | this pattern | |
| Ethena (ENA) | ENA unlock: about 267.19M tokens (~2.65% of circulating), projected | 2.6% | in 153 days | this pattern |
Every past case14 cases
Every past unlock behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 14 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.7% of circ. | −4.5% | in 2 days | in 2 days | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.8% of circ. | −1.1% | +86.0% | +62.6% | down next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | 12.3% of circ. | −1.9% | +57.4% | +58.8% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.9% of circ. | −6.1% | +14.5% | +12.9% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.0% of circ. | −5.1% | −17.1% | −22.0% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.1% of circ. | +20.4% | −5.8% | +14.2% | up next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.1% of circ. | +2.0% | +36.8% | +16.6% | up next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.2% of circ. | −10.7% | −31.8% | −24.4% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.4% of circ. | −4.9% | −24.6% | −16.5% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.5% of circ. | +2.5% | −46.6% | −26.6% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.7% of circ. | +2.8% | −2.8% | −7.9% | up next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.9% of circ. | +0.6% | −21.0% | −6.9% | sideways next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 8.1% of circ. | −15.5% | −23.6% | −13.6% | down next day | |
| 1978 | ||||||
| Raydium (RAY) | 4.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 13 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and unlock size), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 38% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 5 of the 13 measured past cases of unlocks of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 20% to 61% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 13.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 13.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 14 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every unlock with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.