PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · TVL surges · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-22

TVL surges of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: all 194 measured cases

TVL surge category · otherbtc trend · downheld up on recent cases 468 cases on record last 5 cases: 4 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a TVL surge?

higher the next day

42%

81 of 194 past cases

42% of past cases were higher (90% range 36-48%)

90% range 36%–48%

higher after 30 days

31%

60 of 196 cases measured after 30 days

31% of past cases were higher (90% range 25-36%)

90% range 25%–36% · typical move −11.4%

typical next day
−0.9%
typical after 30 days
−11.4%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−10.2%
best after 30 days
+351.8%
worst after 30 days
−71.9%
30 days: up · sideways · down
47 · 28 · 121

recent-cases check · held up: 42% → 41% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

TVL JUMPall TVL surges against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
−4−9…+1
7 days
−4−10…+1
30 days
−7−12…−1

After TVL surges, the price was higher 30 days later in 36% of 363 cases on 307 separate days, against 43% of the same coins' ordinary days: −7 points (95% range −12 to −1; older half −9, newer half −5). Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 2 coins.

Every past TVL surge, 30 days on 196 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 38 rose · ▼ 103 fell · ◆ 55 sideways (±11% over 30 days)

Each line is one past TVL surge: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 196 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

TVL surges of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: 194 of the 468 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 81 of those 194 closed higher — a base rate of 42%, with a 90% range of 36% to 48%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up194 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

TVL surges of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: 194 of the 468 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 81 of those 194 closed higher — a base rate of 42%, with a 90% range of 36% to 48%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.

  • By day 30, 60 of the 196 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (31%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −11.4%, the best +351.8% and the worst −71.9%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −10.2% vs BTC and beat it in 28.1% of 196 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 42% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 41% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.

Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL surges of tokens outside the big categories →

Every past case468 cases

Every past TVL surge behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 468 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

468 past cases of tvl surges of tokens outside the big categories with btc below its 50-day average, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Sushi (SUSHI) 1.0% of circ. +0.9% +29.9% +10.0% sideways next day
GAIB (GAIB) 0.2% of circ. −0.5% +121.3% +101.4% sideways next day
Origin Protocol (OGN) 0.6% of circ. +0.4% +23.4% −1.5% sideways next day
PumpBTC (PUMP) 1.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bluefin (BLUE) 0.2% of circ. +4.7% −14.7% −24.1% up next day
Lombard (BARD) 16.9% of circ. +1.9% −16.7% −19.5% up next day
Dolomite (DOLO) 0.3% of circ. −2.4% −10.7% −11.3% down next day
SUN (SUN) 0.6% of circ. +0.8% +7.4% +6.5% sideways next day
Aquarius (AQUA) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Marinade (MNDE) 0.3% of circ. +0.2% +3.3% +2.4% sideways next day
River (RIVER) 0.5% of circ. −4.1% −33.9% −31.9% down next day
Frankencoin (ZCHF) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Treehouse (TREE) 0.6% of circ. −4.3% −8.8% −7.1% down next day
Nest Protocol (NEST) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Solstice (SLX) 0.3% of circ. +9.2% +164.4% +183.8% up next day
Resolv (RESOLV) 0.2% of circ. −3.2% −6.4% +13.0% down next day
Meteora (MET) 2.0% of circ. −6.5% +21.9% +42.7% down next day
Marinade (MNDE) 0.6% of circ. −0.4% −5.2% +15.6% sideways next day
River (RIVER) 0.4% of circ. −2.3% −30.0% −11.6% down next day
Gravity (G) 0.2% of circ. −9.9% −7.4% −22.9% down next day
Power Protocol (POWER) 0.2% of circ. −1.1% +8.8% −5.8% down next day
USDD (USDD) 0.7% of circ. −0.2% +0.1% −14.2% sideways next day
GAIB (GAIB) 1.1% of circ. −7.9% −33.4% −48.2% down next day
River (RIVER) 0.4% of circ. −43.4% −71.9% −80.7% down next day
Celer Network (CELR) 0.2% of circ. −2.1% +4.3% −6.4% down next day
Immutable X (IMX) 0.8% of circ. −5.3% −13.6% −14.7% down next day
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.3% of circ. −4.5% −7.5% −0.1% down next day
Balancer (BAL) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) 0.4% of circ. +14.6% +1.6% −2.0% up next day
Frankencoin (ZCHF) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) 0.4% of circ. −7.6% −4.7% −9.0% down next day
Renzo (REZ) 0.2% of circ. −6.6% +18.2% +14.0% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Gearbox (GEAR) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
RateX (RTX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Across Protocol (ACX) 0.2% of circ. −2.6% −13.5% −14.5% down next day
Anvil (ANVL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Zeus Network (ZEUS) 0.2% of circ. −14.2% −24.9% −25.8% down next day
Gravity (G) 0.3% of circ. −8.1% −22.2% −14.2% down next day
Lombard (BARD) 0.3% of circ. +10.1% +73.6% +86.8% up next day
GAIB (GAIB) 1.5% of circ. +8.1% −11.4% +13.6% up next day
TermMax (TMX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Taiko (TAIKO) 0.3% of circ. −11.0% −40.0% −16.4% down next day
Unitas (UP) 1.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2025
Ankr (ANKR) 0.5% of circ. +1.6% −13.7% −8.9% up next day
Opinion (OPN) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.2% of circ. +17.6% −5.0% −10.1% up next day
Bitkub Coin (KUB) 0.7% of circ. +0.8% +9.0% −0.5% sideways next day
Yield Basis (YB) 0.4% of circ. −7.5% −11.3% −17.1% down next day
USDD (USDD) 1.0% of circ. +0.0% 0.0% −1.1% sideways next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.4% of circ. −3.5% +2.4% +5.4% down next day
Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) 0.2% of circ. −9.0% −20.0% −17.0% down next day
Marinade (MNDE) 0.3% of circ. +5.7% −44.3% −40.6% up next day
LFJ (JOE) 0.3% of circ. −0.6% −19.7% −16.8% sideways next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Zeus Network (ZEUS) 0.6% of circ. +18.2% −38.1% −41.4% up next day
Axelar (AXL) 0.2% of circ. +4.4% −35.6% −28.3% up next day
Taiko (TAIKO) 0.2% of circ. +0.5% −19.8% −11.2% sideways next day
Opinion (OPN) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
USDD (USDD) 0.5% of circ. 0.0% +0.0% +9.4% sideways next day
SUN (SUN) 0.2% of circ. +0.2% −8.6% +0.8% sideways next day
Lombard (BARD) 0.4% of circ. +3.7% +4.2% +13.6% up next day
Tornado Cash (TORN) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.2% of circ. +5.4% −43.7% −32.9% up next day
Ethena USDe (USDE) 0.3% of circ. +0.0% +0.0% +12.0% sideways next day
Canopy (CNPY) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bedrock DAO (BR) 0.4% of circ. −2.1% −25.7% −8.6% down next day
Opinion (OPN) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) 0.2% of circ. +2.6% −11.2% +5.4% up next day
USDD (USDD) 0.3% of circ. 0.0% +0.0% +17.5% sideways next day
TermMax (TMX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tornado Cash (TORN) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.3% of circ. +2.8% −50.6% −30.2% up next day
Kava Lend (HARD) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Canopy (CNPY) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Clearpool (CPOOL) 0.3% of circ. −8.0% −44.7% −31.8% down next day
Yield Basis (YB) 3.9% of circ. −18.2% −34.8% −21.1% down next day
Falcon Finance (FF) 0.4% of circ. −11.7% −10.4% +5.9% down next day
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.2% of circ. +3.1% −32.9% −16.6% up next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.8% of circ. −26.2% −67.8% −54.4% down next day
Stargate Finance (STG) 1.1% of circ. −2.5% −26.2% −30.2% down next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. +41.1% +51.5% +46.3% up next day
Momentum (MMT) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Unitas (UP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Zerobase (ZBT) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Power Protocol (POWER) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
edgeX (EDGE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Hemi (HEMI) 0.2% of circ. −0.7% +182.1% +171.2% sideways next day
Turtle (turtle.xyz) (TURTLE) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
USD.AI (CHIP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
USDD (USDD) 0.3% of circ. 0.0% −0.0% −11.5% sideways next day
LAB (LAB) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
USD.AI (CHIP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
VVS Finance (VVS) 0.2% of circ. −7.8% −41.2% −40.9% down next day
Teller (DEBIT) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) 0.3% of circ. −8.7% +23.0% +26.0% down next day
Zeus Network (ZEUS) 0.2% of circ. −1.6% +16.8% +19.8% down next day
Mitosis (MITO) 3.4% of circ. — +22.4% +21.2% not measured yet
Anvil (ANVL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Veranta (AVNT) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Moonwell (WELL) 0.6% of circ. −1.3% +55.8% +32.1% down next day
ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) 0.5% of circ. +2.6% +39.2% +15.5% up next day
Hemi (HEMI) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Canopy (CNPY) 1.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
STBL (STBL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Gearbox (GEAR) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Avalon (AVL) 1.2% of circ. +18.2% +23.6% −3.3% up next day
Citrea (CTR) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Spark (SPK) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
OKB (OKB) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axelar (AXL) 3.5% of circ. +2.3% +5.4% −10.7% up next day
LAB (LAB) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
yearn.finance (YFI) 0.2% of circ. −5.9% +9.4% +0.5% down next day
Lombard (BARD) 10.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Hemi (HEMI) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
MX Token (MX) 1.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 2.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LAB (LAB) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
GoPlus (GPS) 0.2% of circ. −6.9% −54.9% −57.0% down next day
Immutable X (IMX) 2.3% of circ. 0.0% −29.2% −28.4% sideways next day
Orderly Network (ORDER) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Treehouse (TREE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) 1.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Puffer (PUFFER) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
STBL (STBL) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BOB (Build on Bitcoin) (BOB) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Fulcrom (FUL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SoSoValue (SOSO) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Origin Protocol (OGN) 0.3% of circ. +9.6% −18.7% −0.1% up next day
Dolomite (DOLO) 5.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) 2.1% of circ. −8.0% −11.2% −0.5% down next day
Stargate Finance (STG) 1.0% of circ. −8.4% −21.8% −10.6% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Dogelon Mars (ELON) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2024
Aster (ASTER) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.3% of circ. −7.4% +48.1% +36.3% down next day
KiloEx (KILO) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Morpho (MORPHO) 1.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Threshold Network (T) 0.2% of circ. +1.4% +24.5% +13.8% up next day
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 0.5% of circ. +2.6% −1.9% −0.8% up next day
Aura (AURA) 1.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Suilend (SEND) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bsquared Network (B2) 1.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sushi (SUSHI) 15.0% of circ. +4.9% −13.5% −16.1% up next day
LFJ (JOE) 0.2% of circ. +2.3% −7.6% −10.0% up next day
Injective Protocol (INJ) 0.3% of circ. −6.2% −13.1% −17.9% down next day
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aster (ASTER) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stargate Finance (STG) 1.4% of circ. −14.3% −19.6% −18.6% down next day
Sushi (SUSHI) 1.4% of circ. −23.1% −26.9% −25.9% down next day
LFJ (JOE) 0.3% of circ. −7.4% −0.6% −4.5% down next day
RCH Token (RCH) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Maverick Token (MAV) 0.2% of circ. −3.5% −20.2% −30.7% down next day
LAB (LAB) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. −5.2% −13.2% −23.8% down next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) 0.2% of circ. −4.0% −9.2% −20.8% down next day
Taiko (TAIKO) 7.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Frankencoin (ZCHF) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aura (AURA) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Badger (BADGER) 2.1% of circ. −8.9% −8.2% −4.4% down next day
Merlin Chain (MERL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Marinade (MNDE) 0.7% of circ. +2.1% −16.5% −27.8% up next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 48.9% of circ. −1.6% −2.3% −12.7% down next day
Dogelon Mars (ELON) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BOB (Build on Bitcoin) (BOB) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Avalon (AVL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stake DAO (SDT) 5.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Convex Finance (CVX) 0.4% of circ. +2.7% +12.6% +3.7% up next day
LAB (LAB) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SaucerSwap (SAUCE) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) 0.3% of circ. −6.3% −15.3% −18.5% down next day
Avalon (AVL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tarot (TAROT) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Badger (BADGER) 0.6% of circ. −5.2% −8.9% −2.7% down next day
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 1.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DeGate (DG) 1.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ApeX Token (APEX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sonic SVM (SONIC) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 8.9% of circ. +0.9% +6.0% −18.3% sideways next day
DeGate (DG) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aura (AURA) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Renzo (REZ) 1.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sonic SVM (SONIC) 4.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sushi (SUSHI) 0.2% of circ. +3.7% +13.2% −10.9% up next day
2023
JUST (JST) 0.2% of circ. −0.6% +5.8% −1.1% sideways next day
Alchemix (ALCX) 0.3% of circ. +7.2% +12.4% +3.8% up next day
Aerodrome Finance (AERO) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Uniswap (UNI) 1.9% of circ. −4.5% −10.2% −10.7% down next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Loopring (LRC) 0.2% of circ. +1.2% −6.1% −7.8% up next day
Sushi (SUSHI) 4.3% of circ. −1.1% −16.6% −3.6% down next day
Spark (SPK) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lista DAO (LISTA) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 0.3% of circ. −0.2% −28.6% −17.3% sideways next day
Convex Finance (CVX) 0.4% of circ. +3.2% −16.2% −4.9% up next day
Tokemak (TOKE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Multichain (MULTI) 0.8% of circ. −3.8% −43.2% −31.8% down next day
Origin Protocol (OGN) 0.2% of circ. −5.7% −31.3% −20.0% down next day
ALEX Lab (ALEX) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lista DAO (LISTA) 2.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) 0.4% of circ. −0.9% +10.7% −6.2% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 0.2% of circ. +1.5% −4.3% −19.3% up next day
Axelar (AXL) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Spark (SPK) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PulseX (PLSX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 0.5% of circ. +5.4% −8.3% −21.6% up next day
SmarDex (SDEX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Injective Protocol (INJ) 0.2% of circ. +3.4% −8.1% −2.4% up next day
Maverick Token (MAV) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Threshold Network (T) 0.4% of circ. −3.6% −34.3% −30.5% down next day
ALEX Lab (ALEX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Onyxcoin (XCN) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aura (AURA) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2022
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Blur (BLUR) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ankr (ANKR) 1.3% of circ. +1.0% −1.9% −11.4% sideways next day
Bone ShibaSwap (BONE) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tokemak (TOKE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sushi (SUSHI) 0.2% of circ. −15.8% −28.6% −27.8% down next day
Gearbox (GEAR) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SaucerSwap (SAUCE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Morpho (MORPHO) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Across Protocol (ACX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Euler (EUL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) 0.3% of circ. 0.0% −5.5% −6.9% sideways next day
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) 1.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 0.2% of circ. −1.2% −10.1% −10.4% down next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.2% of circ. −1.2% −10.1% −10.4% down next day
Morpho (MORPHO) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sushi (SUSHI) 0.5% of circ. −8.8% −18.9% −5.4% down next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LFJ (JOE) 6.9% of circ. −3.0% −25.7% −13.5% down next day
Tokemak (TOKE) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Morpho (MORPHO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) 0.2% of circ. +2.3% −3.1% −8.6% up next day
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aurora (AURORA) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 0.5% of circ. −0.2% +2.1% −3.6% sideways next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.5% of circ. −0.2% +2.1% −3.6% sideways next day
Stader (SD) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ankr (ANKR) 0.3% of circ. −1.7% −6.1% −7.0% down next day
AUSD (AUSD) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 0.5% of circ. −8.5% −21.8% −17.9% down next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.5% of circ. −8.5% −21.8% −17.9% down next day
Morpho (MORPHO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Clearpool (CPOOL) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lista DAO (LISTA) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stader (SD) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tornado Cash (TORN) 0.2% of circ. +5.1% −33.0% −33.6% up next day
Tokemak (TOKE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 0.2% of circ. +5.9% −19.6% −20.2% up next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.2% of circ. +5.9% −19.6% −20.2% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DeBox (BOX) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
pSTAKE Finance (PSTAKE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stargate Finance (STG) 0.3% of circ. −0.9% −28.0% −17.3% sideways next day
Across Protocol (ACX) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Citrea (CTR) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aerodrome Finance (AERO) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ALEX Lab (ALEX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 1.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BiFi (BIFI) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Solv Protocol (SOLV) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) 0.3% of circ. +3.7% +34.3% +22.6% up next day
Access Protocol (ACS) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Hashflow (HFT) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
JUST (JST) 0.6% of circ. +1.9% +15.9% −2.3% up next day
Serum (SRM) 0.3% of circ. −3.1% +21.4% +3.3% down next day
Marinade (MNDE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. −9.1% +0.6% −12.0% down next day
Truth (TRU) 3.5% of circ. +6.0% +74.5% +51.2% up next day
Serum (SRM) 0.3% of circ. +6.5% +34.9% +11.5% up next day
TrueFi (TRU) 3.5% of circ. +6.0% +74.5% +51.2% up next day
Clearpool (CPOOL) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tokemak (TOKE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Hashflow (HFT) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Euler (EUL) 1.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) 0.3% of circ. +7.4% −27.2% +5.2% up next day
Aerodrome Finance (AERO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Clearpool (CPOOL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
JUST (JST) 0.4% of circ. +7.4% −29.0% −1.5% up next day
Solv Protocol (SOLV) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bancor (BNT) 0.5% of circ. −2.6% −62.8% −30.7% down next day
Truth (TRU) 0.4% of circ. +3.3% −40.3% −8.2% up next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.4% of circ. +3.3% −40.3% −8.2% up next day
Folks Finance (FOLKS) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DODO (DODO) 0.6% of circ. −5.4% −23.6% +10.3% down next day
Clearpool (CPOOL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Moss Coin (MOC) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Channels (CAN) 1.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Darkweb Metaverse (DARK) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Yelay (YLAY) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 2.1% of circ. +6.2% −55.4% −30.5% up next day
TrueFi (TRU) 2.1% of circ. +6.2% −55.4% −30.5% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BabyBoomToken (BBT) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
XMAQUINA (DEUS) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) 0.3% of circ. +2.1% −44.0% −22.5% up next day
DAO Maker Token (DAO) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Channels (CAN) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Goldfinch (GFI) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) 0.3% of circ. −1.0% +29.0% +25.8% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 1.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Minswap (MIN) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Channels (CAN) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Goldfinch (GFI) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 0.4% of circ. −1.0% +30.8% +21.5% down next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.4% of circ. −1.0% +30.8% +21.5% down next day
pSTAKE Finance (PSTAKE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Channels (CAN) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) 0.3% of circ. −8.0% −29.0% −15.9% down next day
Goldfinch (GFI) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Perle (PRL) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Agora by Virtuals (AGORA) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synapse (SYN) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 0.4% of circ. +17.0% −4.6% −9.1% up next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.4% of circ. +17.0% −4.6% −9.1% up next day
Ren (REN) 0.2% of circ. +4.9% −4.9% −7.7% up next day
Channels (CAN) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Collector Crypt (CARDS) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Goldfinch (GFI) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 0.7% of circ. −4.5% −16.5% −22.2% down next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.7% of circ. −4.5% −16.5% −22.2% down next day
Tarot (TAROT) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2021
Tarot (TAROT) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Perpetual Protocol (PERP) 0.5% of circ. +6.4% −5.7% +3.8% up next day
Channels (CAN) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Celer Network (CELR) 1.0% of circ. −8.5% +21.2% +30.8% down next day
Wormhole (W) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BabySwap (BABY) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Perpetual Protocol (PERP) 0.6% of circ. +0.3% −15.7% −3.7% sideways next day
Channels (CAN) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synapse (SYN) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Sushi (SUSHI) 0.3% of circ. +1.2% +37.2% +55.7% up next day
Aladdin DAO (ALD) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Channels (CAN) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) 0.3% of circ. −20.6% −48.1% −31.0% down next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) 0.7% of circ. +2.4% −19.6% −0.4% up next day
BabySwap (BABY) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Loopring (LRC) 0.3% of circ. +5.3% −17.9% +4.5% up next day
Ren (REN) 0.2% of circ. +13.6% +8.9% −40.0% up next day
INV (INV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synapse (SYN) 2.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
1INCH (1INCH) 0.7% of circ. +5.2% +58.9% +11.6% up next day
GMX (GMX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orca (ORCA) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Osmosis (OSMO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LFJ (JOE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Marinade (MNDE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tarot (TAROT) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Collector Crypt (CARDS) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) 0.2% of circ. −16.1% −39.4% −64.1% down next day
Osmosis (OSMO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Iron Fish (IRON) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ChessCoin 0.32% (CHESS) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 0.2% of circ. −4.7% +351.8% +304.5% down next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.2% of circ. −4.7% +351.8% +304.5% down next day
Collector Crypt (CARDS) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 0.5% of circ. −7.9% +7.2% −24.4% down next day
IdleMine (IDLE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Raydium (RAY) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 0.3% of circ. +7.9% +25.9% +10.0% up next day
Serum (SRM) 0.3% of circ. +6.4% +21.0% +5.1% up next day
Channels (CAN) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Collector Crypt (CARDS) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 0.4% of circ. +20.1% +8.9% −7.1% up next day
Spell Token (SPELL) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 0.3% of circ. −23.3% −50.1% −34.1% down next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.3% of circ. −23.3% −50.1% −34.1% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) 0.3% of circ. +5.3% −44.8% −23.4% up next day
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DEAPcoin (DEP) 1.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Channels (CAN) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 0.3% of circ. −6.9% −51.6% −43.9% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. −4.7% −43.2% −35.5% down next day
BarnBridge (BOND) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) 0.2% of circ. +6.4% −17.9% −16.2% up next day
Loopring (LRC) 0.2% of circ. −20.7% −31.4% −21.5% down next day
Numeraire (NMR) 0.2% of circ. −23.8% −49.0% −31.3% down next day
Uniswap (UNI) 0.2% of circ. +13.7% −37.0% −19.4% up next day
Sushi (SUSHI) 0.2% of circ. −0.9% −48.5% −30.9% sideways next day
Liquity (LQTY) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 0.3% of circ. +8.4% −22.4% −11.8% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 0.2% of circ. +24.8% −37.5% −26.8% up next day
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ankr (ANKR) 0.3% of circ. +1.4% −31.3% −20.6% up next day
Bancor (BNT) 0.2% of circ. +12.5% −32.4% −21.7% up next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pangolin (PNG) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
StakeWise (SWISE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Convex Finance (CVX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
INV (INV) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Enzyme (MLN) 3.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Numeraire (NMR) 0.4% of circ. −18.7% −49.7% −32.3% down next day
Balancer (BAL) 0.2% of circ. −8.0% −58.8% −41.4% down next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Truth (TRU) 0.2% of circ. −7.4% −21.3% +0.1% down next day
TrueFi (TRU) 0.2% of circ. −7.4% −21.3% +0.1% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) 1.1% of circ. −2.0% −42.2% −4.0% down next day
Badger (BADGER) 0.2% of circ. −3.2% −48.9% −17.5% down next day
Raydium (RAY) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 0.7% of circ. −3.8% −26.8% +8.3% down next day
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
BarnBridge (BOND) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pangolin (PNG) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Serum (SRM) 0.4% of circ. −2.4% −18.7% +11.6% down next day
DODO (DODO) 0.8% of circ. −23.5% −42.0% −13.4% down next day
2020
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 0.4% of circ. −20.9% −71.8% −88.8% down next day
yearn.finance (YFI) 0.3% of circ. −10.9% −52.6% −69.7% down next day
SUN (SUN) 2.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Uniswap (UNI) 0.5% of circ. — −11.0% −18.9% not measured yet
Sushi (SUSHI) 0.4% of circ. −14.1% −71.9% −82.9% down next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. −1.2% +47.1% +22.5% down next day
Balancer (BAL) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2019
Uniswap (UNI) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 194 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answered from this count

What does the 42% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 81 of the 194 measured past cases of tVL surges of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 36% to 48% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 194.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 42% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 41% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 468 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every TVL surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.