How often it went up19 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
TVL surges of L1 and L2 tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 19 of the 25 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 6 of those 19 closed higher — a base rate of 32%, with a 90% range of 17% to 50%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
- By day 30, 11 of the 16 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (69%).
- The typical day-30 move was +7.2%, the best +165.0% and the worst −33.6%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −14.4% vs BTC and beat it in 37.5% of 16 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 19 as of Oct 22, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 11 days ago · STRK Starknet next day −17.6% · 7 days −41.4% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL surges of L1 and L2 tokens →
Every past case25 cases
Every past TVL surge behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 25 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Starknet (STRK) | 0.2% of circ. | −17.6% | in 19 days | in 19 days | down next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | 0.3% of circ. | −2.1% | +28.0% | +25.8% | down next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | 0.4% of circ. | −4.1% | +165.0% | +158.2% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Chainlink (LINK) | 0.6% of circ. | +3.9% | −22.7% | −17.5% | up next day | |
| EOS (EOS) | 0.5% of circ. | −4.1% | — | — | down next day | |
| EOS (EOS) | 0.3% of circ. | −3.7% | — | — | down next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | 3.8% of circ. | −2.4% | +4.2% | −11.5% | down next day | |
| EOS (EOS) | 0.2% of circ. | −11.0% | −33.6% | −25.1% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Mantle (MNT) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Starknet (STRK) | 0.2% of circ. | −10.0% | −24.2% | −28.5% | down next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | 6.7% of circ. | +1.8% | +9.4% | −14.0% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | 0.3% of circ. | −4.7% | −7.0% | −33.0% | down next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Optimism (OP) | 0.5% of circ. | −5.9% | +46.0% | +44.5% | down next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SwissBorg (BORG) | 0.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.2% of circ. | +10.1% | +11.1% | −14.9% | up next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.2% of circ. | +4.5% | +5.0% | −18.0% | up next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.4% of circ. | −0.8% | +76.1% | +63.9% | sideways next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Stacks (STX) | 0.2% of circ. | +1.1% | +3.4% | −15.3% | up next day | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.4% of circ. | −32.5% | −21.0% | −16.4% | down next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.5% of circ. | −7.7% | +15.3% | +2.9% | down next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.2% of circ. | +21.2% | +117.0% | +93.8% | up next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Aave (AAVE) | 0.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aave (AAVE) | 0.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 19 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 32% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 6 of the 19 measured past cases of tVL surges of L1 and L2 tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 17% to 50% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 19.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 19.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 25 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every TVL surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.