How often it went up36 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
TVL surges of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories: 36 of the 64 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 20 of those 36 closed higher — a base rate of 56%, with a 90% range of 42% to 68%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
- By day 30, 14 of the 33 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (42%).
- The typical day-30 move was −0.0%, the best +86.5% and the worst −79.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −2.4% vs BTC and beat it in 30.3% of 33 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 59% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 2 days ago · UNI Uniswap next day +1.9% · 30 days lands
- 25 days ago · CAKE PancakeSwap next day −5.5% · 7 days −8.6% · 30 days lands
- 28 days ago · JST JUST next day +10.2% · 7 days +18.3% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET No scheduled TVL surge meets every condition of this pattern as of Oct 22, 2026.
Every past case64 cases
Every past TVL surge behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 64 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | 0.7% of circ. | +1.9% | in 28 days | in 28 days | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 4.5% of circ. | −5.5% | in 5 days | in 5 days | down next day | |
| JUST (JST) | 0.9% of circ. | +10.2% | in 2 days | in 2 days | up next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 0.3% of circ. | +0.0% | +0.0% | −6.0% | sideways next day | |
| GateToken (GT) | 0.2% of circ. | −1.2% | −17.4% | +7.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 4.2% of circ. | −0.6% | −8.0% | −12.5% | sideways next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 0.7% of circ. | −0.2% | +0.1% | −14.2% | sideways next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 1.3% of circ. | +0.0% | 0.0% | +29.1% | sideways next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| USDD (USDD) | 1.0% of circ. | +0.0% | 0.0% | −1.1% | sideways next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 0.5% of circ. | 0.0% | +0.0% | +9.4% | sideways next day | |
| Ethena USDe (USDE) | 0.3% of circ. | +0.0% | +0.0% | +12.0% | sideways next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 0.3% of circ. | 0.0% | +0.0% | +17.5% | sideways next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.4% of circ. | +87.4% | +35.4% | +42.6% | up next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 0.3% of circ. | 0.0% | −0.0% | −11.5% | sideways next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 0.3% of circ. | −0.0% | −0.0% | −2.4% | sideways next day | |
| JUST (JST) | 0.3% of circ. | +1.7% | −9.2% | −13.5% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 0.3% of circ. | +8.6% | −25.4% | −29.7% | up next day | |
| Coinbase Wrapped Staked ETH (CBETH) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| OKB (OKB) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| JUST (JST) | 0.8% of circ. | −4.8% | −24.4% | −24.0% | down next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sky (SKY) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) | 0.3% of circ. | +3.9% | +49.4% | +14.4% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 0.2% of circ. | +2.7% | +86.5% | +74.8% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 1.9% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 0.5% of circ. | +2.6% | −1.9% | −0.8% | up next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | 0.3% of circ. | −6.2% | −13.1% | −17.9% | down next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Coinbase Wrapped Staked ETH (CBETH) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 0.2% of circ. | +17.4% | −33.7% | −31.4% | up next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 0.2% of circ. | −4.1% | +35.3% | −22.8% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 8.9% of circ. | +0.9% | +6.0% | −18.3% | sideways next day | |
| OKB (OKB) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 0.3% of circ. | −0.6% | +79.2% | +69.6% | sideways next day | |
| JUST (JST) | 0.2% of circ. | −0.6% | +5.8% | −1.1% | sideways next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | 0.7% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 0.3% of circ. | −0.2% | −28.6% | −17.3% | sideways next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 0.2% of circ. | +6.2% | +2.7% | +5.1% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 0.2% of circ. | +1.5% | −4.3% | −19.3% | up next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | 0.2% of circ. | +3.4% | −8.1% | −2.4% | up next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| JUST (JST) | 0.6% of circ. | +1.9% | +15.9% | −2.3% | up next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| JUST (JST) | 0.4% of circ. | +7.4% | −29.0% | −1.5% | up next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Raydium (RAY) | 0.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 0.3% of circ. | +8.4% | −22.4% | −11.8% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 0.4% of circ. | −20.9% | −71.8% | −88.8% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.1% of circ. | −36.6% | −79.5% | −70.5% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 0.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 0.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 36 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and market-cap bucket), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 56% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 20 of the 36 measured past cases of tVL surges of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 42% to 68% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 36.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 59% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 64 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every TVL surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.