How often it went up29 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
TVL surges of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 29 of the 49 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 16 of those 29 closed higher — a base rate of 55%, with a 90% range of 40% to 69%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
- By day 30, 14 of the 26 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (54%).
- The typical day-30 move was +1.4%, the best +117.0% and the worst −79.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −9.2% vs BTC and beat it in 42.3% of 26 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 59% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 2 days ago · UNI Uniswap next day +1.9% · 30 days lands
- 11 days ago · STRK Starknet next day −17.6% · 7 days −41.4% · 30 days lands
- 25 days ago · CAKE PancakeSwap next day −5.5% · 7 days −8.6% · 30 days lands
- 28 days ago · JST JUST next day +10.2% · 7 days +18.3% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL surges of mid-cap tokens →
Every past case49 cases
Every past TVL surge behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 49 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | 0.7% of circ. | +1.9% | in 28 days | in 28 days | up next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | 0.2% of circ. | −17.6% | in 19 days | in 19 days | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 4.5% of circ. | −5.5% | in 5 days | in 5 days | down next day | |
| JUST (JST) | 0.9% of circ. | +10.2% | in 2 days | in 2 days | up next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 0.3% of circ. | +0.0% | +0.0% | −6.0% | sideways next day | |
| GateToken (GT) | 0.2% of circ. | −1.2% | −17.4% | +7.8% | down next day | |
| Bitway (BTW) | 1.0% of circ. | −1.1% | −27.2% | −18.4% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 4.2% of circ. | −0.6% | −8.0% | −12.5% | sideways next day | |
| Bitway (BTW) | 0.6% of circ. | +19.3% | −41.3% | −44.0% | up next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 1.3% of circ. | +0.0% | 0.0% | +29.1% | sideways next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.4% of circ. | +87.4% | +35.4% | +42.6% | up next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 0.3% of circ. | −0.0% | −0.0% | −2.4% | sideways next day | |
| JUST (JST) | 0.3% of circ. | +1.7% | −9.2% | −13.5% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 0.3% of circ. | +8.6% | −25.4% | −29.7% | up next day | |
| Coinbase Wrapped Staked ETH (CBETH) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| JUST (JST) | 0.8% of circ. | −4.8% | −24.4% | −24.0% | down next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sky (SKY) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) | 0.3% of circ. | +3.9% | +49.4% | +14.4% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 0.2% of circ. | +2.7% | +86.5% | +74.8% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Coinbase Wrapped Staked ETH (CBETH) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Mantle (MNT) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 0.2% of circ. | +17.4% | −33.7% | −31.4% | up next day | |
| Ether.fi (ETHFI) | 0.2% of circ. | — | +35.4% | +43.5% | not measured yet | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 0.2% of circ. | −4.1% | +35.3% | −22.8% | down next day | |
| OKB (OKB) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Mantle (MNT) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 0.3% of circ. | −0.6% | +79.2% | +69.6% | sideways next day | |
| Ether.fi (ETHFI) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 0.2% of circ. | +6.2% | +2.7% | +5.1% | up next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.2% of circ. | +10.1% | +11.1% | −14.9% | up next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.2% of circ. | +4.5% | +5.0% | −18.0% | up next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.4% of circ. | −0.8% | +76.1% | +63.9% | sideways next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Stacks (STX) | 0.2% of circ. | +1.1% | +3.4% | −15.3% | up next day | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.4% of circ. | −32.5% | −21.0% | −16.4% | down next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.5% of circ. | −7.7% | +15.3% | +2.9% | down next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.2% of circ. | +21.2% | +117.0% | +93.8% | up next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Aave (AAVE) | 0.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.1% of circ. | −36.6% | −79.5% | −70.5% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aave (AAVE) | 0.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 0.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 29 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 55% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 16 of the 29 measured past cases of tVL surges of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 40% to 69% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 29.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 59% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 49 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every TVL surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.