How often it went up23 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
TVL surges of mid-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 23 of the 42 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 11 of those 23 closed higher — a base rate of 48%, with a 90% range of 32% to 64%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
- By day 30, 8 of the 23 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (35%).
- The typical day-30 move was −1.9%, the best +15.9% and the worst −71.8%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −3.9% vs BTC and beat it in 17.4% of 23 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 57% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 33% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL surges of mid-cap tokens →
Every past case42 cases
Every past TVL surge behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 42 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | 0.3% of circ. | −7.0% | −1.1% | −3.4% | down next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 0.7% of circ. | −0.2% | +0.1% | −14.2% | sideways next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| USDD (USDD) | 1.0% of circ. | +0.0% | 0.0% | −1.1% | sideways next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 0.5% of circ. | 0.0% | +0.0% | +9.4% | sideways next day | |
| Ethena USDe (USDE) | 0.3% of circ. | +0.0% | +0.0% | +12.0% | sideways next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 0.3% of circ. | 0.0% | +0.0% | +17.5% | sideways next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | 0.3% of circ. | 0.0% | −0.0% | −11.5% | sideways next day | |
| OKB (OKB) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 1.9% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 0.5% of circ. | +2.6% | −1.9% | −0.8% | up next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | 0.3% of circ. | −6.2% | −13.1% | −17.9% | down next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 8.9% of circ. | +0.9% | +6.0% | −18.3% | sideways next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| JUST (JST) | 0.2% of circ. | −0.6% | +5.8% | −1.1% | sideways next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | 0.7% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 0.3% of circ. | −0.2% | −28.6% | −17.3% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 0.2% of circ. | +1.5% | −4.3% | −19.3% | up next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | 0.2% of circ. | +3.4% | −8.1% | −2.4% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| JUST (JST) | 0.6% of circ. | +1.9% | +15.9% | −2.3% | up next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| JUST (JST) | 0.4% of circ. | +7.4% | −29.0% | −1.5% | up next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.2% of circ. | −9.7% | −17.6% | −19.7% | down next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Stacks (STX) | 0.2% of circ. | −11.5% | −20.4% | −3.9% | down next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.2% of circ. | +1.3% | +6.8% | −26.4% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 0.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stacks (STX) | 0.3% of circ. | +9.3% | −37.2% | −19.6% | up next day | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | 0.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 0.3% of circ. | +8.4% | −22.4% | −11.8% | up next day | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aave (AAVE) | 0.2% of circ. | −0.4% | −27.4% | +7.7% | sideways next day | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 0.4% of circ. | −20.9% | −71.8% | −88.8% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 0.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 23 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 48% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 11 of the 23 measured past cases of tVL surges of mid-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 32% to 64% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 23.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 57% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 33% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 42 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every TVL surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.