How often it went up38 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Big S&P 500 down days (Bitcoin's move) with BTC below its 50-day average: 38 of the 38 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 20 of those 38 closed higher — a base rate of 53%, with a 90% range of 40% to 65%, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- By day 30, 23 of the 38 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (61%).
- The typical day-30 move was +2.9%, the best +51.7% and the worst −33.9%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran 0.0% vs BTC and beat it in 0.0% of 38 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 48% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 60% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled big S&P 500 down day can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Big S&P 500 down days (Bitcoin's move) →
Every past case38 cases
Every past big S&P 500 down day behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 38 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +3.7% | +4.9% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.3% | −23.1% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.9% | −6.0% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +7.1% | +30.8% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.4% | +13.3% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +6.5% | +1.3% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −2.3% | +8.0% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +2.1% | +4.0% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.3% | +20.3% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +7.2% | +7.6% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.4% | −13.3% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.5% | +5.4% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.4% | +5.3% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −2.3% | −4.9% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.1% | −9.3% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.7% | +17.2% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −5.6% | −30.7% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.7% | −33.9% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.0% | −18.1% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.7% | −26.7% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +10.4% | +14.4% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.1% | +1.8% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +10.9% | +3.0% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +6.6% | −5.6% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +6.8% | +51.7% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.4% | −28.4% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +4.3% | +28.0% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.3% | +5.2% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.4% | +4.3% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| 2019 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −2.4% | −6.6% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +2.8% | +2.8% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.1% | −8.2% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2018 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +4.4% | +3.1% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −11.2% | −4.0% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −5.0% | −3.0% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.7% | +38.2% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −2.0% | +0.7% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −7.8% | +29.1% | 0.0% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 38 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 53% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 20 of the 38 measured past cases of big S&P 500 down days (Bitcoin's move) with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 40% to 65% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 38.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 48% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 60% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 38 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every big S&P 500 down day with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.