How often it went up12 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: 12 of the 17 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 7 of those 12 closed higher — a base rate of 58%, with a 90% range of 36% to 78%, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- By day 30, 4 of the 12 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (33%).
- The typical day-30 move was −5.1%, the best +268.8% and the worst −34.3%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −12.4% vs BTC and beat it in 25.0% of 12 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 12 as of Oct 3, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled spot listing can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case17 cases
Every past spot listing behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 17 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| BitTensor (TAO) | OKX | −2.8% | −7.8% | −15.3% | down next day | |
| Gram (prev. Toncoin) (GRAM) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Canton Network (CC) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Midnight (NIGHT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Dash (DASH) | OKX | +7.8% | −31.5% | −31.5% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | OKX | +5.8% | −29.9% | −10.0% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | OKX | −6.4% | +1.9% | +14.8% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | OKX | +3.8% | −34.3% | −20.7% | up next day | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | OKX | +6.2% | −2.4% | +13.9% | up next day | |
| Ethena USDe (USDE) | Binance | −0.0% | −0.1% | −8.6% | sideways next day | |
| USD1 (USD1) | OKX | +0.0% | +0.0% | −10.3% | sideways next day | |
| Official World Liberty Financial (WLFI) | OKX | −2.7% | −11.9% | −21.5% | down next day | |
| Official World Liberty Financial (WLFI) | Binance | −2.7% | −11.9% | −21.5% | down next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | Binance | +1.3% | +16.2% | −14.5% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | Binance | +16.2% | +268.8% | +238.0% | up next day | |
| Pi Network (PI) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 12 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 58% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 7 of the 12 measured past cases of listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 36% to 78% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 12.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 12.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 17 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every spot listing with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.