How often it went up44 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme lows of large-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: 44 of the 44 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 22 of those 44 closed higher — a base rate of 50%, with a 90% range of 38% to 62%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 26 of the 44 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (59%).
- The typical day-30 move was +2.5%, the best +41.5% and the worst −38.9%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran +0.1% vs BTC and beat it in 50.0% of 44 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 54% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme low can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme lows of large-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case44 cases
Every past funding extreme low behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 44 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | — | −0.4% | +9.0% | −15.0% | sideways next day | |
| TRON (TRX) | — | +0.7% | +3.4% | −3.8% | sideways next day | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | — | +8.5% | −10.5% | −17.0% | up next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | — | −1.0% | +12.9% | +7.5% | sideways next day | |
| Solana (SOL) | — | −2.9% | +6.1% | +3.9% | down next day | |
| Stellar (XLM) | — | +1.5% | −3.9% | −1.9% | up next day | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | — | −3.2% | +13.2% | +14.9% | down next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | — | +8.2% | +6.3% | +2.2% | up next day | |
| Solana (SOL) | — | +4.5% | +28.8% | +23.9% | up next day | |
| Stellar (XLM) | — | −14.4% | −24.0% | −5.5% | down next day | |
| TRON (TRX) | — | +2.0% | −6.7% | +11.3% | up next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | — | −5.2% | −29.3% | −8.5% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.5% | +1.9% | −15.5% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | — | −4.3% | −4.9% | −21.4% | down next day | |
| Solana (SOL) | — | −2.0% | +2.1% | −14.5% | down next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | — | −7.8% | +9.5% | +0.7% | down next day | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | — | +0.6% | +16.7% | +12.6% | sideways next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | — | +5.9% | +9.7% | +2.0% | up next day | |
| Solana (SOL) | — | +5.3% | +1.2% | −6.5% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +2.4% | −12.9% | −19.8% | up next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | — | +2.0% | +6.8% | −0.1% | up next day | |
| Stellar (XLM) | — | +3.6% | +7.6% | +9.6% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | — | +0.5% | +3.0% | −0.5% | sideways next day | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | — | −2.2% | +41.5% | +43.9% | down next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | — | +19.5% | +24.8% | +18.3% | up next day | |
| Stellar (XLM) | — | +7.5% | +14.8% | +8.4% | up next day | |
| Solana (SOL) | — | +13.0% | +11.1% | +4.6% | up next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | — | +3.4% | +1.2% | −0.1% | up next day | |
| Stellar (XLM) | — | −2.6% | 0.0% | −3.5% | down next day | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | — | −3.9% | +37.1% | +33.6% | down next day | |
| BNB (BNB) | — | −0.9% | +5.8% | +2.8% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −3.1% | +12.4% | +12.6% | down next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | — | −4.5% | +13.6% | +16.7% | down next day | |
| Stellar (XLM) | — | −1.6% | −8.2% | −5.1% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | — | +2.1% | −9.6% | −4.0% | up next day | |
| BNB (BNB) | — | −11.7% | −25.7% | −7.4% | down next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | — | −0.9% | −23.9% | −0.3% | sideways next day | |
| TRON (TRX) | — | +0.4% | −4.0% | +24.2% | sideways next day | |
| Solana (SOL) | — | −6.7% | −38.9% | −11.0% | down next day | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | — | −1.9% | +16.5% | +44.3% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +0.4% | −27.8% | −3.3% | sideways next day | |
| BNB (BNB) | — | +0.9% | −29.2% | −5.2% | sideways next day | |
| Stellar (XLM) | — | −1.5% | −26.2% | +1.4% | down next day | |
| Stellar (XLM) | — | +9.0% | −10.0% | +0.2% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 44 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 50% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 22 of the 44 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of large-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 38% to 62% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 44.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 54% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 44 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.