How often it went up46 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme highs of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 46 of the 46 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 20 of those 46 closed higher — a base rate of 43%, with a 90% range of 32% to 56%, counted as of Oct 16, 2026.
- By day 30, 17 of the 35 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (49%).
- The typical day-30 move was −0.7%, the best +643.1% and the worst −64.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran +3.7% vs BTC and beat it in 54.3% of 35 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 43% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 3 days ago · W Wormhole next day −19.2% · 30 days lands
- 12 days ago · ZRO LayerZero next day +8.8% · 7 days +6.1% · 30 days lands
- 19 days ago · JTO Jito next day −6.3% · 7 days −3.9% · 30 days lands
- 19 days ago · XPL Plasma next day −11.8% · 7 days −13.7% · 30 days lands
- 20 days ago · H Humanity next day −10.7% · 7 days −10.0% · 30 days lands
- 23 days ago · EDGE edgeX next day −9.5% · 7 days −15.1% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme high can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme highs of small-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case46 cases
Every past funding extreme high behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 46 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Wormhole (W) | — | −19.2% | in 27 days | in 27 days | down next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | — | +8.8% | in 18 days | in 18 days | up next day | |
| Jito (JTO) | — | −6.3% | in 11 days | in 11 days | down next day | |
| Plasma (XPL) | — | −11.8% | in 11 days | in 11 days | down next day | |
| Humanity (H) | — | −10.7% | in 10 days | in 10 days | down next day | |
| edgeX (EDGE) | — | −9.5% | in 7 days | in 7 days | down next day | |
| Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) | — | −5.4% | in 6 days | in 6 days | down next day | |
| UnifAI Network (UAI) | — | −2.8% | in 6 days | in 6 days | down next day | |
| MegaETH (MEGA) | — | +6.8% | in 4 days | in 4 days | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | +3.6% | in 4 days | in 4 days | up next day | |
| Hypurr (PURR) | — | +0.2% | in 3 days | in 3 days | sideways next day | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | — | +22.2% | −32.6% | −37.7% | up next day | |
| Fluid (FLUID) | — | −4.7% | +111.5% | +105.2% | down next day | |
| Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) | — | −8.4% | −11.1% | −14.8% | down next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | −8.7% | +109.2% | +105.5% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | +0.6% | +2.5% | −1.2% | sideways next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | +7.4% | −4.4% | −12.1% | up next day | |
| edgeX (EDGE) | — | +0.7% | −25.6% | −32.1% | sideways next day | |
| UnifAI Network (UAI) | — | +11.0% | −31.4% | −41.0% | up next day | |
| UnifAI Network (UAI) | — | −14.7% | −3.6% | −10.5% | down next day | |
| Plasma (XPL) | — | −11.0% | −11.5% | −20.1% | down next day | |
| MegaETH (MEGA) | — | −0.2% | +15.6% | +3.7% | sideways next day | |
| Hypurr (PURR) | — | +39.8% | +57.1% | +45.3% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | +3.6% | +14.1% | +2.2% | up next day | |
| Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) | — | −7.9% | −0.7% | −11.3% | down next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | — | +18.5% | +18.4% | +7.8% | up next day | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | — | −2.3% | +89.8% | +66.3% | down next day | |
| UnifAI Network (UAI) | — | −13.8% | −34.6% | −56.8% | down next day | |
| Tagger (TAG) | — | −14.0% | −36.4% | −62.3% | down next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | — | +1.1% | +27.4% | +4.2% | up next day | |
| Humanity (H) | — | −13.3% | +71.2% | +74.2% | down next day | |
| Hypurr (PURR) | — | −9.5% | −7.3% | +9.8% | down next day | |
| UnifAI Network (UAI) | — | −17.2% | −17.9% | +7.3% | down next day | |
| Tagger (TAG) | — | +77.3% | +40.9% | +49.6% | up next day | |
| MegaETH (MEGA) | — | −17.0% | −63.3% | −59.8% | down next day | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | — | +2.2% | −32.0% | −28.5% | up next day | |
| Humanity (H) | — | +8.3% | +80.2% | +80.3% | up next day | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | — | −52.3% | −44.7% | −49.1% | down next day | |
| Kite (KITE) | — | +2.6% | +53.1% | +48.6% | up next day | |
| Tagger (TAG) | — | −19.6% | +49.9% | +37.8% | down next day | |
| Unibase (UB) | — | +3.4% | +643.1% | +632.9% | up next day | |
| UnifAI Network (UAI) | — | −43.1% | −64.5% | −70.1% | down next day | |
| Flow (FLOW) | — | −1.1% | −50.0% | −22.2% | down next day | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | — | −0.1% | +15.3% | +39.2% | sideways next day | |
| Hypurr (PURR) | — | +26.2% | +32.9% | +46.3% | up next day | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | — | +1.0% | −9.2% | +4.2% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 46 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 43% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 20 of the 46 measured past cases of funding extreme highs of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 16, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 32% to 56% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 46.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 43% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 46 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme high with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.