How often it went up78 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
TVL crashes of small-cap tokens outside the big categories: 78 of the 195 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 43 of those 78 closed higher — a base rate of 55%, with a 90% range of 46% to 64%, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- By day 30, 27 of the 75 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (36%).
- The typical day-30 move was −9.1%, the best +119.5% and the worst −56.3%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −11.2% vs BTC and beat it in 28.0% of 75 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 51% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 61% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 7 days ago · CHIP USD.AI next day −11.8% · 30 days lands
- 8 days ago · PLSX PulseX 30 days lands
- 11 days ago · CAP Cap next day −24.0% · 7 days −29.3% · 30 days lands
- 14 days ago · STG Stargate Finance 30 days lands
- 23 days ago · STG Stargate Finance next day +0.7% · 30 days lands
- 29 days ago · CHIP USD.AI next day +1.8% · 7 days −7.7% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET No scheduled TVL crash meets every condition of this pattern as of Oct 24, 2026.
Every past case195 cases
Every past TVL crash behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 195 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | −11.8% | in 23 days | in 23 days | down next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | in 22 days | in 22 days | not measured yet | |
| Cap (CAP) | — | −24.0% | in 19 days | in 19 days | down next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | — | — | in 16 days | in 16 days | not measured yet | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | — | +0.7% | in 7 days | in 7 days | sideways next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | +1.8% | tomorrow | tomorrow | up next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | — | +14.0% | −1.2% | −18.4% | up next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | −0.7% | +1.9% | −14.7% | sideways next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | −4.1% | +6.5% | −11.2% | down next day | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | — | −7.9% | −30.2% | −27.7% | down next day | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | −4.1% | +1.1% | −6.3% | down next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +10.5% | +5.5% | −0.6% | up next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | −1.7% | +1.8% | −3.1% | down next day | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | — | −5.3% | −33.8% | −13.2% | down next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | +4.9% | −3.8% | +13.5% | up next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | +1.8% | −15.1% | +8.4% | up next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | +4.6% | +23.4% | +3.2% | up next day | |
| Fluid (FLUID) | — | −2.1% | −6.0% | −16.4% | down next day | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | — | +5.1% | +13.8% | −1.4% | up next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | +0.5% | +12.0% | +7.9% | sideways next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arkham (ARKM) | — | −6.0% | −7.7% | −12.1% | down next day | |
| Cap (CAP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arkham (ARKM) | — | +1.7% | −33.5% | −10.4% | up next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axelar (AXL) | — | −7.4% | −39.9% | −27.6% | down next day | |
| Cap (CAP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | +1.0% | −8.2% | +13.1% | up next day | |
| Blur (BLUR) | — | −7.7% | −19.4% | +0.0% | down next day | |
| Immutable X (IMX) | — | +29.9% | −11.1% | −4.2% | up next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | +21.9% | −15.4% | −8.6% | up next day | |
| Astar (ASTR) | — | +13.3% | −18.9% | −12.0% | up next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | — | +4.0% | −12.9% | −6.9% | up next day | |
| CoW Protocol Token (COW) | — | +6.2% | −30.8% | −13.7% | up next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | +3.3% | +28.7% | +11.2% | up next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MX Token (MX) | — | +0.3% | −8.6% | −11.8% | sideways next day | |
| MegaUSD (USDM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MegaUSD (USDM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | +4.5% | −20.6% | −18.8% | up next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MegaUSD (USDM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Threshold Network (T) | — | −9.4% | −25.8% | −27.7% | down next day | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | +19.8% | −9.1% | −17.8% | up next day | |
| MegaUSD (USDM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ronin Token (RON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | −3.5% | +37.5% | +10.6% | down next day | |
| Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | −0.3% | −25.2% | −14.0% | sideways next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | +2.0% | −3.7% | +3.5% | up next day | |
| Axelar (AXL) | — | −1.5% | −31.9% | −33.3% | down next day | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +7.0% | +57.6% | +40.4% | up next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Onyxcoin (XCN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | −0.2% | −14.1% | −23.9% | sideways next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | −1.4% | −37.0% | −19.9% | down next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | +5.7% | −35.5% | −27.4% | up next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +0.3% | +7.2% | −4.1% | sideways next day | |
| MX Token (MX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MegaUSD (USDM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MegaUSD (USDM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pulsechain (PLS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kamino (KMNO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pulsechain (PLS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | −2.6% | +24.8% | +8.9% | down next day | |
| Threshold Network (T) | — | +4.6% | +7.4% | −17.6% | up next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | +7.9% | +31.9% | +10.9% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | −1.7% | +28.7% | −4.4% | down next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pulsechain (PLS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | −3.9% | −14.8% | −3.5% | down next day | |
| Pulsechain (PLS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arcium (ARX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axelar (AXL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | 0.0% | −14.9% | −9.5% | sideways next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Onyxcoin (XCN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arcium (ARX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orca (ORCA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pulsechain (PLS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +2.0% | +1.1% | −20.2% | up next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | −11.1% | +10.7% | −15.3% | down next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | — | +10.7% | +10.3% | −25.5% | up next day | |
| MegaETH (MEGA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Venus (XVS) | — | +3.6% | −4.3% | −1.9% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | +1.0% | −21.6% | −21.9% | sideways next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orca (ORCA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pulsechain (PLS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | +3.2% | +9.7% | +2.1% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +2.2% | +41.8% | +50.2% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Venus (XVS) | — | +18.2% | −8.5% | +14.7% | up next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | +2.4% | −56.3% | −47.8% | up next day | |
| Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +10.6% | −11.0% | −2.5% | up next day | |
| Oasis Network (ROSE) | — | +13.2% | −18.8% | −10.3% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −30.1% | −50.2% | −44.0% | down next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | −10.6% | −18.5% | −12.2% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Threshold Network (T) | — | +5.0% | −40.8% | −19.9% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Oasis Network (ROSE) | — | −1.1% | −27.0% | −33.2% | down next day | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Oasis Network (ROSE) | — | −12.0% | −43.7% | −47.1% | down next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +8.4% | +0.5% | +11.3% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 1INCH (1INCH) | — | −0.7% | −23.8% | −18.2% | sideways next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 1INCH (1INCH) | — | −9.1% | +38.6% | +16.8% | down next day | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orca (ORCA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −6.3% | −41.7% | −43.8% | down next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +1.6% | +30.1% | +27.9% | up next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | — | −37.8% | −29.8% | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Venus (XVS) | — | −30.3% | −46.8% | −34.7% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −10.2% | −37.0% | −33.7% | down next day | |
| Orca (ORCA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Numeraire (NMR) | — | −0.3% | −9.8% | −6.5% | sideways next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +14.5% | −43.5% | −40.2% | up next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 1INCH (1INCH) | — | −5.7% | −46.0% | −24.6% | down next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 1INCH (1INCH) | — | +11.4% | +39.8% | +30.0% | up next day | |
| Augur (REP) | — | +13.7% | −1.9% | −19.5% | up next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +3.7% | +62.6% | +32.2% | up next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Venus (XVS) | — | 0.0% | +119.5% | +100.8% | sideways next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Compound (COMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2019 | ||||||
| Compound (COMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 78 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and market-cap bucket), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 55% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 43 of the 78 measured past cases of tVL crashes of small-cap tokens outside the big categories closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 46% to 64% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 78.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 51% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 61% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 195 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every TVL crash with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.