How often it went up44 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
TVL crashes of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 44 of the 106 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 29 of those 44 closed higher — a base rate of 66%, with a 90% range of 54% to 76%, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- By day 30, 16 of the 38 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (42%).
- The typical day-30 move was −3.8%, the best +119.5% and the worst −37.0%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −9.0% vs BTC and beat it in 31.6% of 38 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 65% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 67% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 7 days ago · BONK Bonk next day −4.2% · 30 days lands
- 7 days ago · CHIP USD.AI next day −11.8% · 30 days lands
- 8 days ago · PLSX PulseX 30 days lands
- 11 days ago · CAP Cap next day −24.0% · 7 days −29.3% · 30 days lands
- 14 days ago · STG Stargate Finance 30 days lands
- 16 days ago · DRV Derive next day +38.3% · 7 days +10.1% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL crash can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL crashes of small-cap tokens →
Every past case106 cases
Every past TVL crash behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 106 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Bonk (BONK) | — | −4.2% | in 23 days | in 23 days | down next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | −11.8% | in 23 days | in 23 days | down next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | in 22 days | in 22 days | not measured yet | |
| Cap (CAP) | — | −24.0% | in 19 days | in 19 days | down next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | — | — | in 16 days | in 16 days | not measured yet | |
| Derive (DRV) | — | +38.3% | in 14 days | in 14 days | up next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | — | +0.7% | in 7 days | in 7 days | sideways next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | +1.8% | tomorrow | tomorrow | up next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | — | +14.0% | −1.2% | −18.4% | up next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | −0.7% | +1.9% | −14.7% | sideways next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | −4.1% | +6.5% | −11.2% | down next day | |
| Bonk (BONK) | — | +1.0% | −23.2% | −7.9% | up next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | +4.9% | −3.8% | +13.5% | up next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | +1.8% | −15.1% | +8.4% | up next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | +4.6% | +23.4% | +3.2% | up next day | |
| Fluid (FLUID) | — | −2.1% | −6.0% | −16.4% | down next day | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | — | +5.1% | +13.8% | −1.4% | up next day | |
| EOS (EOS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| EOS (EOS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bonk (BONK) | — | +23.7% | −9.1% | −2.2% | up next day | |
| Immutable X (IMX) | — | +29.9% | −11.1% | −4.2% | up next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | +21.9% | −15.4% | −8.6% | up next day | |
| Astar (ASTR) | — | +13.3% | −18.9% | −12.0% | up next day | |
| CoW Protocol Token (COW) | — | +6.2% | −30.8% | −13.7% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +3.2% | −4.5% | +1.9% | up next day | |
| MX Token (MX) | — | +0.3% | −8.6% | −11.8% | sideways next day | |
| MegaUSD (USDM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MegaUSD (USDM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | +4.5% | −20.6% | −18.8% | up next day | |
| SwissBorg (BORG) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MegaUSD (USDM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Threshold Network (T) | — | −9.4% | −25.8% | −27.7% | down next day | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | +19.8% | −9.1% | −17.8% | up next day | |
| MegaUSD (USDM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ronin Token (RON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | +2.0% | −3.7% | +3.5% | up next day | |
| Bonk (BONK) | — | +3.8% | −32.1% | −33.1% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +7.0% | +57.6% | +40.4% | up next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Onyxcoin (XCN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | −1.4% | −37.0% | −19.9% | down next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | +5.7% | −35.5% | −27.4% | up next day | |
| MegaUSD (USDM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pulsechain (PLS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kamino (KMNO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pulsechain (PLS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | −2.6% | +24.8% | +8.9% | down next day | |
| Threshold Network (T) | — | +4.6% | +7.4% | −17.6% | up next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | +7.9% | +31.9% | +10.9% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SwissBorg (BORG) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | −1.7% | +28.7% | −4.4% | down next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | −3.9% | −14.8% | −3.5% | down next day | |
| Pulsechain (PLS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arcium (ARX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | 0.0% | −14.9% | −9.5% | sideways next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Onyxcoin (XCN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arcium (ARX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orca (ORCA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pulsechain (PLS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +2.0% | +1.1% | −20.2% | up next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | −11.1% | +10.7% | −15.3% | down next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | — | +10.7% | +10.3% | −25.5% | up next day | |
| MegaETH (MEGA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| GMX (GMX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 1INCH (1INCH) | — | −9.1% | +38.6% | +16.8% | down next day | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orca (ORCA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 1INCH (1INCH) | — | +11.4% | +39.8% | +30.0% | up next day | |
| Augur (REP) | — | +13.7% | −1.9% | −19.5% | up next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +3.7% | +62.6% | +32.2% | up next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Venus (XVS) | — | 0.0% | +119.5% | +100.8% | sideways next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2019 | ||||||
| Compound (COMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 44 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 66% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 29 of the 44 measured past cases of tVL crashes of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 54% to 76% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 44.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 65% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 67% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 106 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every TVL crash with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.