How often it went up45 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
TVL crashes of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 45 of the 107 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 21 of those 45 closed higher — a base rate of 47%, with a 90% range of 35% to 59%, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- By day 30, 14 of the 46 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (30%).
- The typical day-30 move was −18.6%, the best +41.8% and the worst −56.3%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −12.1% vs BTC and beat it in 26.1% of 46 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 52% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 39% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL crash can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL crashes of small-cap tokens →
Every past case107 cases
Every past TVL crash behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 107 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| DoubleZero (2Z) | — | −7.9% | −30.2% | −27.7% | down next day | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | −4.1% | +1.1% | −6.3% | down next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +10.5% | +5.5% | −0.6% | up next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | −1.7% | +1.8% | −3.1% | down next day | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | — | −5.3% | −33.8% | −13.2% | down next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | +0.5% | +12.0% | +7.9% | sideways next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arkham (ARKM) | — | −6.0% | −7.7% | −12.1% | down next day | |
| Cap (CAP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arkham (ARKM) | — | +1.7% | −33.5% | −10.4% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axelar (AXL) | — | −7.4% | −39.9% | −27.6% | down next day | |
| Cap (CAP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | +1.0% | −8.2% | +13.1% | up next day | |
| Blur (BLUR) | — | −7.7% | −19.4% | +0.0% | down next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | — | +4.0% | −12.9% | −6.9% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | +3.4% | −29.7% | −33.7% | up next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | +3.3% | +28.7% | +11.2% | up next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | −3.5% | +37.5% | +10.6% | down next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | −6.6% | +24.6% | +12.0% | down next day | |
| Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | −0.3% | −25.2% | −14.0% | sideways next day | |
| Axelar (AXL) | — | −1.5% | −31.9% | −33.3% | down next day | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | +2.6% | −20.5% | −31.1% | up next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | −0.2% | −14.1% | −23.9% | sideways next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +0.3% | +7.2% | −4.1% | sideways next day | |
| MX Token (MX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MegaUSD (USDM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| EOS (EOS) | — | −3.2% | +3.5% | +2.7% | down next day | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Pulsechain (PLS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| EOS (EOS) | — | −1.3% | +5.1% | −12.1% | down next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axelar (AXL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Venus (XVS) | — | +3.6% | −4.3% | −1.9% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | +1.0% | −21.6% | −21.9% | sideways next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orca (ORCA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pulsechain (PLS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | +3.2% | +9.7% | +2.1% | up next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Derive (DRV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +2.2% | +41.8% | +50.2% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Derive (DRV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Venus (XVS) | — | +18.2% | −8.5% | +14.7% | up next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | +2.4% | −56.3% | −47.8% | up next day | |
| Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +10.6% | −11.0% | −2.5% | up next day | |
| Oasis Network (ROSE) | — | +13.2% | −18.8% | −10.3% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −30.1% | −50.2% | −44.0% | down next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | −10.6% | −18.5% | −12.2% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Threshold Network (T) | — | +5.0% | −40.8% | −19.9% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Oasis Network (ROSE) | — | −1.1% | −27.0% | −33.2% | down next day | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Oasis Network (ROSE) | — | −12.0% | −43.7% | −47.1% | down next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +8.4% | +0.5% | +11.3% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 1INCH (1INCH) | — | −0.7% | −23.8% | −18.2% | sideways next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −6.3% | −41.7% | −43.8% | down next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +1.6% | +30.1% | +27.9% | up next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | — | −37.8% | −29.8% | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Venus (XVS) | — | −30.3% | −46.8% | −34.7% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −10.2% | −37.0% | −33.7% | down next day | |
| Orca (ORCA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Numeraire (NMR) | — | −0.3% | −9.8% | −6.5% | sideways next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +14.5% | −43.5% | −40.2% | up next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 1INCH (1INCH) | — | −5.7% | −46.0% | −24.6% | down next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| SUN (SUN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Compound (COMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 45 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 47% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 21 of the 45 measured past cases of tVL crashes of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 35% to 59% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 45.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 52% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 39% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 107 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every TVL crash with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.