How often it went up20 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
TVL crashes of mid-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 20 of the 34 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 8 of those 20 closed higher — a base rate of 40%, with a 90% range of 24% to 58%, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- By day 30, 6 of the 21 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (29%).
- The typical day-30 move was −1.8%, the best +77.2% and the worst −64.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran +1.5% vs BTC and beat it in 57.1% of 21 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 42% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 38% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL crash can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL crashes of mid-cap tokens →
Every past case34 cases
Every past TVL crash behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 34 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| USDD (USDD) | — | −0.3% | −0.3% | −3.9% | sideways next day | |
| Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) | — | −0.3% | −2.1% | +0.9% | sideways next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | +6.9% | +7.8% | +3.0% | up next day | |
| Avalanche (AVAX) | — | −8.3% | −18.1% | +4.2% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| USDD (USDD) | — | 0.0% | −0.0% | +2.2% | sideways next day | |
| Ethena USDe (USDE) | — | +0.0% | −0.0% | +9.4% | sideways next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | — | −0.0% | +0.0% | +15.7% | sideways next day | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | — | +3.4% | −8.1% | −7.7% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | −6.8% | −64.5% | −53.7% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Aster (ASTER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | — | — | −6.8% | −18.6% | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| OKB (OKB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −7.4% | −1.6% | −22.5% | down next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Raydium (RAY) | — | −11.7% | +48.5% | +22.5% | down next day | |
| Cronos (CRO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wrapped BNB (WBNB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | −10.8% | −31.9% | −29.0% | down next day | |
| Polkadot (DOT) | — | −0.7% | −10.0% | +4.5% | sideways next day | |
| Wrapped BNB (WBNB) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| JUST (JST) | — | −6.4% | +1.8% | +8.0% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −8.9% | +45.6% | +51.5% | down next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aptos (APT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aptos (APT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | +8.3% | −33.8% | −25.4% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | +3.9% | −40.9% | −32.5% | up next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Stacks (STX) | — | +10.2% | +77.2% | +75.1% | up next day | |
| Sky (SKY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +7.4% | −1.8% | +1.5% | up next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | +11.8% | −10.7% | −7.4% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Sky (SKY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 20 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 40% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 8 of the 20 measured past cases of tVL crashes of mid-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 24, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 24% to 58% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 20.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 42% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 38% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 34 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every TVL crash with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.