PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
Updated

oswald HT4C…ekmd

LaunchSolanapumpswapaliveborn 2026-09-30 22:15 UTC

How launches like this end

every recorded launch with the same features at birth

Launches with its features

57%–88% were dead within 24 hours

This one
alive 83.6h
Peak return
+274.8%

Counts of what happened to past launches, not financial advice.

Dead within 24 hours, by the features it shares

Bundled first-hour volume: under 10%86%879 launches
LP locked: 1–99%88%397 launches
Social links: 157%91 launches
Unique buyers, first hour: 5 or fewer74%368 launches

Why: its features

what it had at birth, in short

The data

every birth feature, price move and wallet link, dated

Mint: HT4CiUUdGVuoS7JH1mPotjBxAX81HFjYtxf1RMVRekmd

Pool: Fkk166xiAxq7dDhVudGq6ByXrtQrXEBEd2ZBxK2KQr19

Chain Solana · venue pumpswap · status alive · 0 collector rule checks fired (a count, not a rating) · record updated

The launch in shortON RECORD

The launch in short

as of · launch collector, at birth and sinceread it →

First price

$0.0000546

at birth · 2026-09-30 22:15 UTC

Liquidity at birth

$19.23K

pool value at the first record

FDV at birth

$54.65K

fully diluted at the first price

24 h return

−93.5%

from the first recorded price

Peak return

+274.8%

highest recorded multiple

Hours alive

83.6

alive as of Oct 4, 2026

Price moves after launchMEASURED

Price moves after launch

as of · launch collector price samplesread it →

WindowReturnNote
1 hour−84.4%from the first recorded price
6 hours−91.7%—
24 hours−93.5%—
72 hours−95.2%—
last sample−95.2%latest price seen by the collector
peak+274.8%highest multiple recorded

How launches like this endedMEASURED

How launches like this ended

as of · every recorded launchread it →

Every group this launch falls into, with the outcome of all recorded launches in that group
FeatureBucketLaunchesDead within 24 hAlive at 72 h
Bundled first-hour volumeunder 10%879 86.0% 10.7%
LP locked1–99%397 88.2% 13.5%
Social links191 57.1% 64.8%
Unique buyers, first hour5 or fewer368 74.2% 16.1%

Features at birthON RECORD

Features at birth

as of · on-chain checks at birthread it →

Filled square = a feature the outcome table links to dead launches, hollow = its absence, dotted = a plain measurement
FeatureValueWhat it meansLaunches in the same group
Creator wallet age at launch —Creator wallet age at launch was not recorded by the collector for this launch as of Oct 4, 2026.no outcome group
Funder wallet fresh —Funder wallet fresh was not recorded by the collector for this launch as of Oct 4, 2026.no outcome group
Mint authority revokedMint authority was revoked at launch: no new supply could be created by the creator.no outcome group
Freeze authority revokedFreeze authority was revoked at launch: no wallet could be frozen.no outcome group
Liquidity-pool tokens locked 100.0%100.0% of liquidity-pool tokens were locked at launch; unlocked liquidity can be withdrawn by its holder at any time.1–99%: 88% dead within 24 h, 13% alive at 72 h (397 launches)
Top-10 holders (pools excluded) 73.9%The ten largest holders outside pools held 73.9% of supply in the first hour.no outcome group
Fresh-wallet share of buyers 0.0%0.0% of first-hour buyers were wallets with no prior history.no outcome group
Unique buyers, first hour 00 distinct wallets bought in the first hour.5 or fewer: 74% dead within 24 h, 16% alive at 72 h (368 launches)
Buys per buyer 0.00Each buyer made 0.00 purchases on average in the first hour.no outcome group
Bundled share of first-hour volume 0.0%0.0% of first-hour volume came from bundled transactions.under 10%: 86% dead within 24 h, 11% alive at 72 h (879 launches)
Most buys in one block 0The busiest block carried 0 buys.no outcome group
Social links attached 11 social link was attached to the token at launch.1: 57% dead within 24 h, 65% alive at 72 h (91 launches)
Collector's label FOLDThe collector filed the launch as 'FOLD' at birth (its own rule-based bucket, not a verdict of this site).no outcome group
Collector's reason top holder above 25%; top-10 holders above 50%Reason recorded by the collector: top holder above 25%; top-10 holders above 50%.no outcome group
Collector rule count 00 of the collector's rule checks fired at launch (a count, not a rating).no outcome group

Source: launch collector · on-chain checks at birth · outcomes of every recorded launch · fetched

Creator and funderON RECORD

Creator and funder

as of · creator and funder walletsread it →

NO DATA YET No creator wallet is recorded for this launch as of Oct 4, 2026.

Other launches by this creatorON RECORD

Other launches by this creator

as of · launches on recordread it →

NO DATA YET This is the only launch on record from its creator.

Tools

Tools

as of

The full write-up

every sentence on this launch · related pages · sources

oswald in short

oswald was created on Solana at Sep 30, 2026 22:15 UTC on pumpswap by an unrecorded address; status: alive.

  • At birth: price $0.0000546, liquidity $19,227, fully diluted value $54,645; it lived 83.6 hours and is still trading as of Oct 4, 2026.
  • The mint is HT4CiUUdGVuoS7JH1mPotjBxAX81HFjYtxf1RMVRekmd; addresses are public blockchain data.

Launch collector and on-chain checks; updated Oct 4, 2026.

see the numbers →

The launch in short

oswald is alive; launches born with its LP locked (1–99%) died within 24 hours 88.2% of the time.

  • Mint authority was revoked and freeze authority revoked at birth; LP was 100.0% locked and 0 unique buyers traded in the first hour.
  • Bundled first-hour volume under 10%: 86.0% of 879 recorded launches with it were dead within 24 hours.
  • Bundled purchases made up 0.0% of first-hour volume.
  • Fresh wallets made up 0.0% of the first buyers.
  • The top 10 holders outside the pools held 73.9%.
  • 1 social link was attached.
  • The collector's flag reads FOLD (top holder above 25%; top-10 holders above 50%); the rule count score was 0.

see the numbers →

Price moves after launch

Returns from the first recorded price ($0.0000546): −84.4% at 1 hour, −91.7% at 6 hours, −93.5% at 24 hours, −95.2% at 72 hours; the peak was +274.8% and the last recorded return −95.2%.

  • No death is recorded as of Oct 4, 2026; the launch has lived 83.6 hours.

see the numbers →

How launches like this ended

This launch shares 4 birth features with past launches; each row shows how every recorded launch with that feature ended.

  • The deadliest match is LP locked 1–99%: 88.2% of 397 launches with it were dead within 24 hours and 13.5% still alive at 72 hours.

Outcomes of every recorded launch; groups with fewer than 8 launches are left out. As of Oct 4, 2026.

see the numbers →

Features at birth

oswald's bundled first-hour volume at birth (Sep 30, 2026 22:15 UTC) was 0.0%, in the under 10% group: 86.0% of 879 recorded launches in that group were dead within 24 hours and 10.7% alive at 72 hours.

  • oswald's lp locked at birth (Sep 30, 2026 22:15 UTC) was 100.0%, in the 1–99% group: 88.2% of 397 recorded launches in that group were dead within 24 hours and 13.5% alive at 72 hours.
  • oswald's social links at birth (Sep 30, 2026 22:15 UTC) was 1, in the 1 group: 57.1% of 91 recorded launches in that group were dead within 24 hours and 64.8% alive at 72 hours.
  • oswald's unique first-hour buyers at birth (Sep 30, 2026 22:15 UTC) was 0, in the 5 or fewer group: 74.2% of 368 recorded launches in that group were dead within 24 hours and 16.1% alive at 72 hours.

see the numbers →

Creator and funder

No creator address is recorded for oswald as of Oct 4, 2026.

  • No funder wallet is recorded as of Oct 4, 2026.
  • The creator wallet's age at launch was not recorded.

see the numbers →

Other launches by this creator

No other launch by this creator is on record as of Oct 4, 2026.

see the numbers →

Sources

Sources and freshness

as of · sources table

2 sources feed this page; 2 fetched successfully, the most recent at Oct 4, 2026 19:35 UTC; none reported an error on the latest fetch.

Birth features and returns come from the collector's CSV batch and its on-chain checks; the row was last updated 2026-10-04 09:51 UTC. Addresses are public blockchain data.

SourceWhat it gave this pageLast successful fetchLast errorLink
collector_csvevery field on this page 2026-10-04 19:24 UTCnone—
  • This page is generated from 8 database rows and rebuilt daily; first published Oct 4, 2026.

PatternPlus compiles facts from public sources and gives no financial advice; corrections by email. As of Oct 4, 2026.