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Pattern · Bitcoin difficulty adjustments · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-19

Bitcoin difficulty adjustments (Bitcoin's move) with BTC above its 50-day average: all 117 measured cases

Bitcoin difficulty adjustment btc trend · upheld up on recent cases 117 cases on record last 5 cases: 4 up

Explained and tested in our research: What does Bitcoin do the day after a Bitcoin difficulty adjustment?

higher the next day

51%

60 of 117 past cases

51% of past cases were higher (90% range 44-59%)

90% range 44%–59%

higher after 30 days

55%

63 of 114 cases measured after 30 days

55% of past cases were higher (90% range 48-63%)

90% range 48%–63% · typical move +3.1%

typical next day
+0.3%
typical after 30 days
+3.1%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
0.0%
best after 30 days
+81.0%
worst after 30 days
−51.3%
30 days: up · sideways · down
52 · 28 · 34

recent-cases check · held up: 51% → 51% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

DIFFICULTYall Bitcoin difficulty adjustments against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
−5−12…+1
7 days
0−7…+6
30 days
+1−6…+7

No clear edge 1, 7 or 30 days later: no 95% range clears the same coins' ordinary days with both halves of history agreeing (206 cases). Measured on Bitcoin's own price. Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 34 coins.

Every past Bitcoin difficulty adjustment, 30 days on 114 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 50 rose · ▼ 33 fell · ◆ 31 sideways (±5.8% over 30 days)

Each line is one past Bitcoin difficulty adjustment: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 114 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

Bitcoin difficulty adjustments (Bitcoin's move) with BTC above its 50-day average: 117 of the 117 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 60 of those 117 closed higher — a base rate of 51%, with a 90% range of 44% to 59%, counted as of Oct 19, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up117 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

Bitcoin difficulty adjustments (Bitcoin's move) with BTC above its 50-day average: 117 of the 117 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 60 of those 117 closed higher — a base rate of 51%, with a 90% range of 44% to 59%, counted as of Oct 19, 2026.

  • By day 30, 63 of the 114 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (55%).
  • The typical day-30 move was +3.1%, the best +81.0% and the worst −51.3%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran 0.0% vs BTC and beat it in 0.0% of 114 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 51% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 51% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • 3 days ago · BTC Bitcoin next day −0.9% · 30 days lands
  • 16 days ago · BTC Bitcoin next day +2.4% · 7 days −1.8% · 30 days lands

NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled Bitcoin difficulty adjustment can be matched to this pattern before it happens.

Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Bitcoin difficulty adjustments (Bitcoin's move) →

Every past case117 cases

Every past Bitcoin difficulty adjustment behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 117 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

117 past cases of bitcoin difficulty adjustments (bitcoin's move) with btc above its 50-day average, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.9% in 27 days in 27 days sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +2.4% in 14 days in 14 days up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.4% — — sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.9% +7.7% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +2.5% +11.9% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.0% +21.9% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +2.0% +23.2% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −3.6% −18.9% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.4% −8.7% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.7% +3.1% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.4% +5.5% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.8% −24.2% 0.0% sideways next day
2025
Bitcoin (BTC) — +5.7% −3.9% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.7% −8.0% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +2.6% +2.4% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.9% −5.4% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.5% −6.4% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.3% +1.0% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.1% +9.9% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.4% +13.0% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.6% +3.0% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +2.9% +3.2% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −2.7% +9.3% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.8% +25.0% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.3% −17.9% 0.0% down next day
2024
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.6% −3.8% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.4% −2.7% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +2.7% +11.5% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.9% +43.3% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.1% +45.9% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.4% +3.8% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.3% −10.7% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +4.0% −7.2% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −2.5% −18.1% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.9% −7.1% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.2% −12.1% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.5% −8.6% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −4.9% −12.5% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.4% +16.6% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.6% +26.1% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.2% +46.5% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.5% −3.3% 0.0% sideways next day
2023
Bitcoin (BTC) — −2.2% −10.0% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −5.6% +5.5% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.4% +12.5% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.8% +11.7% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.3% +9.6% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +4.6% +39.4% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.0% +27.1% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.4% +7.3% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.0% −10.8% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +2.7% −3.9% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.8% −4.5% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.7% −6.7% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −5.3% −5.9% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.9% +2.4% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.7% +2.1% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.6% +17.0% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.4% +12.8% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.9% +0.5% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.1% +5.9% 0.0% up next day
2022
Bitcoin (BTC) — −11.3% −19.5% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −10.7% −13.8% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +2.2% −13.1% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −2.3% −9.0% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.7% −20.1% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.6% −1.8% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −10.8% +4.4% 0.0% down next day
2021
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.2% −24.9% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.5% −7.9% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +4.5% −1.9% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +6.8% +30.5% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.0% +15.1% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.7% −10.2% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +6.0% +3.7% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −5.6% +11.3% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.9% −35.4% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −2.6% −25.7% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −2.8% −3.6% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.8% −2.6% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +4.6% +21.3% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +8.3% +11.2% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.3% +36.8% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −2.1% +64.2% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −6.0% +14.3% 0.0% down next day
2020
Bitcoin (BTC) — +4.2% +15.5% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +2.5% +81.0% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +11.2% +54.5% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +10.7% +33.7% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +4.4% +43.3% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.6% +47.7% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −2.8% −12.1% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −2.5% −12.5% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +9.8% +15.4% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.4% −3.1% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.5% −5.5% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −7.2% −4.8% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +3.1% +10.3% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +4.4% +32.8% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −9.0% −30.2% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +4.8% −51.3% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +4.4% −0.9% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +8.8% +26.1% 0.0% up next day
2019
Bitcoin (BTC) — −6.1% −19.8% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +5.1% −3.3% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.1% −2.0% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −5.3% −27.6% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +7.2% +23.8% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.0% +37.7% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +10.8% +26.6% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.1% +40.6% 0.0% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.2% +49.4% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +3.3% +14.8% 0.0% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.7% +37.1% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.8% +30.6% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −7.0% −4.1% 0.0% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −0.9% +5.9% 0.0% sideways next day

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 117 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answers generated from this count

What does the 51% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 60 of the 117 measured past cases of bitcoin difficulty adjustments (Bitcoin's move) with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 19, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 44% to 59% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 117.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 51% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 51% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 117 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every Bitcoin difficulty adjustment with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.