How often it went up89 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Bitcoin difficulty adjustments (Bitcoin's move) with BTC below its 50-day average: 89 of the 89 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 38 of those 89 closed higher — a base rate of 43%, with a 90% range of 34% to 51%, counted as of Oct 19, 2026.
- By day 30, 50 of the 89 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (56%).
- The typical day-30 move was +1.8%, the best +46.3% and the worst −30.6%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran 0.0% vs BTC and beat it in 0.0% of 89 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 49% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 33% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled Bitcoin difficulty adjustment can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Bitcoin difficulty adjustments (Bitcoin's move) →
Every past case89 cases
Every past Bitcoin difficulty adjustment behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 89 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.6% | −0.3% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.9% | +6.1% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +2.9% | +0.9% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.4% | −19.1% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.6% | +17.4% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −6.3% | −7.4% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +2.3% | +3.7% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.4% | −3.0% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.2% | −24.0% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.3% | +1.8% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.9% | −1.6% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.4% | −2.9% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.3% | −12.4% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −4.1% | −19.5% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.9% | −13.7% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.5% | +11.5% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −6.5% | +12.9% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +4.4% | +11.5% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −8.8% | −11.5% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −5.2% | −9.5% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.0% | −14.0% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.1% | +1.2% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −2.6% | +6.3% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.0% | +23.1% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.9% | +8.5% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.1% | +10.7% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −5.0% | −0.1% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +2.1% | +1.9% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.3% | +3.3% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.6% | +13.3% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −2.9% | +3.2% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.2% | +24.3% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.8% | +8.3% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.2% | +1.7% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.1% | −13.0% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.3% | +16.9% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.2% | +10.0% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.9% | −3.2% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.5% | +39.1% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.1% | +40.9% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.9% | +23.5% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.8% | −0.8% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −5.5% | +1.2% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.7% | −15.5% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.9% | −18.1% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +2.7% | +7.9% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −9.7% | −13.5% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.6% | −2.0% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +5.0% | +11.6% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.9% | +9.5% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.3% | −30.6% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.5% | −28.4% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.2% | +0.1% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +4.3% | −24.9% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.4% | −26.9% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −8.9% | −3.8% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +10.9% | +3.0% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −13.8% | −5.6% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.7% | +5.5% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.1% | −27.9% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +6.2% | −11.3% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +5.6% | −13.1% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.2% | +44.6% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.3% | +46.3% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +4.4% | +15.9% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +14.0% | −7.9% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +7.7% | +3.8% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.4% | −28.4% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +2.4% | +33.0% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −6.0% | +7.5% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.3% | +4.0% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.5% | +24.3% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.4% | +20.7% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.2% | +36.2% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −4.8% | +12.9% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.7% | −8.4% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.2% | +30.0% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| 2019 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.2% | +22.5% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +4.6% | +2.2% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −10.2% | −11.9% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −7.6% | −9.4% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.5% | +2.9% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.0% | +9.5% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.8% | −20.5% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +7.8% | −13.5% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +6.8% | −0.3% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −5.6% | −2.3% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.9% | +7.5% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +2.2% | +3.8% | 0.0% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 89 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 43% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 38 of the 89 measured past cases of bitcoin difficulty adjustments (Bitcoin's move) with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 19, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 34% to 51% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 89.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 49% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 33% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 89 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every Bitcoin difficulty adjustment with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.