What moves XMR · PROVEN · measured Oct 19, 2026
When its sector rose 5% on average in a day, XMR ended lower the next day more often than on any day
Found in 183 cases in XMR's history, the latest Jan 26, 2024. Out of sample it has no clear edge: calls like it, made only from what was known before each one, were right 56% of 84 calls since 2021, against 47% for that side on any day. Past patterns, not financial advice.
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Out of sample
No clear edge
right 56% of 84 calls since 2021, against 47% for that side on any day
Cases
183
in its history, the latest Jan 26, 2024
How it is proven
XMR is tested on its own history every night: each cause against XMR's own moves from any day, its biggest days capped, so one giant pump cannot make a driver. Proven means past the cut for testing thousands of causes at once, both halves of its history leaning the same way, XMR ending lower more often than on any day by a clear margin, and 12 cases or more.
Proven on the whole history is not the same as right the next time. So the discovery is also re-run as it stood at the start of each calendar quarter, on what came before it only, and the quarter after it is called with what it found; a kind of finding earns a call on the site only when counting every day once, its side was right more often than that same side won on any day of the coin's quarter, in both halves of the quarters walked, at a Newey-West t of 1.645 or more, on 100 or more scored calls over 60 or more separate days, and the average move on the call's side was above 0%, overall and in both halves.
Source: XMR's own daily closes, its events and the market-wide releases on record · measured · the method in full