likely range: 8 in 10 similar past setups ended inside it
middle half −4% to +5% · typical move 0%
Liquidated within 1 day in similar past setups
side
2×
3×
5×
10×
20×
Long
0%
<1%
1%
17%
49%
Short
0%
<1%
2%
17%
47%
the planner's replay of the setups behind the 30-day prediction · red: more than 1 in 20
No clear edge today
Coins ended higher over a day in 47% of every past case · our 1-day direction calls: right 50% of 39,487 calls since 2019, against 51% for that side on any day
Market cap $262.5M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
Lookalike Setups (main) · no clear edge on direction tomorrow · this pattern's 1d calls hit 51.2% of 7,881 — no better than always guessing the usual direction (52%) so far · drawn from the 2384 setups matched for the 30-day prediction
next day
−40%−20%0%+20%−20%−10%0%+10%+20%−13% in 7 days↑ 96% below its all-time high
−30dnow+1d
▲ 10 rose · ▼ 13 fell · ◆ 7 sideways(±2.1% over 1 day)
Bold: AR's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 2384 setups matched for the 30-day prediction, and what each did over the next day — real hourly closes, scaled to AR's volatility. 1 with no hourly path on file yet is drawn through its daily lows, highs and closes.
Bad case$3.61−8%1 in 10 did worse
Typical$3.940%half did better, half worse
Good case$4.30+9%1 in 10 did better
Likely range, in price
$3.61 – $4.30−8% to +9%
Middle half, in price
$3.77 – $4.13−4% to +5%
2,515 similar setups · our 1-day ranges held 79.5% of outcomes in backtests (aim: 80%) · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
AR price prediction for this week
Expected swing over the next 7 days
−20%to+29%
likely range: 8 in 10 similar past setups ended inside it
middle half −10% to +11% · typical move −1.1%
Liquidated within 7 days in similar past setups
side
2×
3×
5×
10×
20×
Long
1%
6%
21%
59%
82%
Short
6%
15%
34%
66%
81%
the planner's replay of the setups behind the 30-day prediction · red: more than 1 in 20
No clear edge today
Coins ended higher over 7 days in 44% of every past case · our 7-day direction calls: right 55% of 65,031 calls since 2019, against 56% for that side on any day
Market cap $262.5M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
Lookalike Setups (main) · no clear edge on direction in 7 days · this pattern's 7d calls hit 58.8% of 27,960 — no better than always guessing the usual direction (60%) so far · drawn from the 2384 setups matched for the 30-day prediction
next 7 days
−40%−20%0%+20%−40%−20%0%+20%+40%−13% in 7 days↑ 96% below its all-time high
−30dnow+7d
▲ 12 rose · ▼ 11 fell · ◆ 7 sideways(±3.3% over 7 days)
Bold: AR's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 2384 setups matched for the 30-day prediction, and what each did over the next 7 days — real 4-hour closes, scaled to AR's volatility. 1 with no 4-hour path on file yet is drawn through its daily lows, highs and closes.
Bad case$3.15−20%1 in 10 did worse
Typical$3.90−1.1%half did better, half worse
Good case$5.09+29%1 in 10 did better
Likely range, in price
$3.15 – $5.09−20% to +29%
Middle half, in price
$3.53 – $4.37−10% to +11%
2,477 similar setups · our 7-day ranges held 79.3% of outcomes in backtests (aim: 80%) · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
AR price prediction for the next 30 days
Expected swing over the next 30 days
−39%to+36%
likely range: 8 in 10 similar past setups ended inside it
middle half −28% to +4% · typical move −12.5%
Liquidated within 30 days in similar past setups
side
2×
3×
5×
10×
20×
Long
8%
33%
64%
89%
96%
Short
25%
39%
57%
79%
89%
the planner's replay of the setups behind the 30-day prediction · red: more than 1 in 20
No clear edge today
Coins ended higher over 30 days in 40% of every past case · our 30-day direction calls: right 57% of 84,569 calls since 2019, against 60% for that side on any day
Market cap $262.5M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
Lookalike Setups (main) · no clear edge on direction in 30 days · drawn from its 2384 matched past setups
next 30 days
−40%−20%0%+20%−50%−25%0%+25%+50%+75%−13% in 7 days↑ 96% below its all-time high
−30dnow+30d
▲ 5 rose · ▼ 20 fell · ◆ 5 sideways(±9.9% over 30 days)
Bold: AR's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 2384 past setups like this, and what each did over the next 30 days — real daily closes, scaled to AR's volatility.
Bad case$2.42−39%1 in 10 did worse
Typical$3.45−12.5%half did better, half worse
Good case$5.35+36%1 in 10 did better
Likely range, in price
$2.42 – $5.35−39% to +36%
Middle half, in price
$2.84 – $4.11−28% to +4%
2,384 similar setups · our 30-day ranges held 78.0% of outcomes in backtests (aim: 80%) · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
Pick a side, when you close and your leverage: we replay that exact trade on the past cases behind this AR prediction and count how it ended.
No trade window for AR was profitable in most similar past cases with a positive average result and liquidations at or under 5% (n=2384).
Chance this ends in profit—
Typical result—half did better, half worse
Chance you get liquidated first—
Every past case, replayedhover or tap a line to see the case
price went your way —against you —sideways —(within ±2.6% over 7 days)✕liquidated —take profit hit —stop loss hit —typical8 in 10 cases
Replays 381 past cases weighted exactly like the 30-day prediction: the 2,384 similar cases behind it plus a sample of all history.
Where the odds were best· swipe for longer holds →
cell = chance of profit color = average result, −50% or worse to +50% or better striped = liquidated in more than 1 in 20★ best: highest typical result with at most 1 in 20 liquidated, most cases in profit and an average above zerono take profit or stop loss · tap a cell to load it
The planner and its replay chart run in your browser: turn on JavaScript to replay your own AR trade on these past cases.
Odds from similar past cases, not financial advice. Leverage multiplies losses too: a liquidated position loses its whole margin.
AR$4−8% to +9% 1Dno call cleared the bar at 1D· liquidated at 10×: 17%open calculator
AR$4−20% to +29% 7Dno call cleared the bar at 7D· liquidated at 10×: 66%open calculator
AR$4−39% to +36% 30Dno call cleared the bar at 30D· liquidated at 10×: 89%open calculator
2
Why we think this
the reasoning, in short
Drivers
The facts this prediction matches on. Every past moment with the same facts, across every coin we track, is one of the 2,515 similar setups its range is drawn from; no chance is shown, as no call earned it out of sample at this horizon.
Down 13% over 7 days
Down 13% this week.
82,130 past cases with this fact
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average.
154,600 past cases with this fact
Small-cap
Small-cap coin ($252.3M market cap).
110,882 past cases with this fact
Normal volume
Trading volume is in its normal range.
270,366 past cases with this fact
The facts this prediction matches on. Every past moment with the same facts, across every coin we track, is one of the 2,477 similar setups its range is drawn from; no chance is shown, as no call earned it out of sample at this horizon.
Up 44% over 30 days
Up 44% over the last 30 days.
74,529 past cases with this fact
Down 13% over 7 days
Down 13% this week.
81,494 past cases with this fact
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average.
152,648 past cases with this fact
Other coin type
Outside the meme, DeFi and L1/L2 groups.
255,439 past cases with this fact
The facts this prediction matches on. Every past moment with the same facts, across every coin we track, is one of the 2,384 similar setups its range is drawn from; no chance is shown, as no call earned it out of sample at this horizon.
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average.
145,860 past cases with this fact
Down 13% over 7 days
Down 13% this week.
80,182 past cases with this fact
Other coin type
Outside the meme, DeFi and L1/L2 groups.
248,684 past cases with this fact
Up 44% over 30 days
Up 44% over the last 30 days.
71,024 past cases with this fact
What moves AR
LIKELYWhen a US CPI release came, AR ended higher the next day more often than on any day (63 cases in the history it was found on)next Oct 14, 2026 · no clear edge out of sample · last Sep 11, 2026
LIKELYWhen it traded five times its usual volume, AR ended higher 30 days later more often than on any day (15 cases in the history it was found on)no clear edge out of sample · last Aug 21, 2026
LIKELYWhen it closed below its 200-day average, AR ended lower a week later more often than on any day (13 cases in the history it was found on)no clear edge out of sample · last Nov 9, 2025
LIKELYWhen a big spot ETF outflow day came, AR ended lower the next day more often than on any day (15 cases in the history it was found on)no clear edge out of sample · last Oct 8, 2026
tested coin by coin every night, each cause against AR's own moves on any day (its biggest days capped) · proven: past the cut for testing thousands at once, both halves of its history agree, 12 cases or more · likely: weaker evidence, walked apart · out of sample: each quarter called with only the drivers found before it, and a kind of driver earns a call only when its side was right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0% · what moves every coin
Our record on AR
Our last 6 calls on AR over 30 days: right on 0 of 6 · 0 of 6 ended inside our range · all-time on AR: 55.6% hit rate, 75.0% inside the range (45 backtested calls)
across every coin, out of sample: our 30-day calls were right 57% of 84,569 calls since 2019, against 60% for that side on any day: no clear edge, so no 30-day call is shown today (a few dozen calls on one coin say little)
Aug 9 said 55% down · ended +59.9%✗ wrongAug 16 said 59% down · ended +39.6%✗ wrongAug 23 said 60% down · ended +105.0%✗ wrongAug 30 said 72% down · ended +106.4%✗ wrongSep 6 said 60% down · ended +49.6%✗ wrongSep 13 said 72% down · ended +43.8%✗ wrong
white: AR's real price after each call · bar: the range we gave (8 in 10 cases, the middle half thicker, a notch at the typical move) · end dot: green right · red wrong · orange the price went sideways (within ±5.5% over 30 days) or a coin flip · backtest: each call used only data available that day · live since Oct 3, 2026: 11 live 30-day predictions on record, first result due Nov 2, 2026 · the full scorecard →
activeArweaveStorageRank #163on record since 2021-02-04
$4
24H+2.9%
30D0.0%
1Y0.0%
FROM ATH−95.9%
last 6 months · daily close · candle = 2 sessions◆ recorded event · dotted blue line = last price · orange = the price went sideways (within ±1.4% over 2 days)
as of · generated from this record's own rowsread it →
events on record
7
higher 30 days after
2 of 7
typical 30-day move
−23.1%
next up
—
Every eventMEASURED7 events
The record: every event and what followed
as of · CoinPaprika · DefiLlama · exchange announcements · PatternPlus effectsread it →
AR: 7 events, newest first; six signed numbers per row are the price change from the close before the event, in UTC; vs BTC is the difference of the two 30-day moves
Binance's ARUSDT perpetual: funding on 2026-02-27 added up to -0.0702% over the day (-26% a year), below 95% of its past year. The move is the coin's from that day's close, when the day's funding was known. On Feb 28, 2026AR saw a funding extreme low; it fell 5.6% by day 1 and was 4.3% higher 30 days later, 3 points ahead of BTC; it had moved −19.8% in the 7 days before.
AR-USDT-SWAP perpetual trading. On Feb 14, 2023OKX opened perpetual futures for AR; it rose 17.1% by day 1 and was 16.8% lower 30 days later, 32 points behind BTC; it had moved −5.7% in the 7 days before.
AR-USDT spot trading (quotes: EUR, USDT, USDC). On Dec 24, 2021OKX listed AR; it rose 5.2% by day 1 and was 40.3% lower 30 days later, 12 points behind BTC; it had moved +23.5% in the 7 days before.
ARUSDT perpetual trading. On Dec 20, 2021Bybit opened perpetual futures for AR; it fell 8.1% by day 1 and was 29.0% lower 30 days later, 18 points behind BTC; it had moved +41.6% in the 7 days before.
ARUSDT perpetual trading. On Sep 28, 2021Binance opened perpetual futures for AR; it fell 0.7% by day 1 and was 16.3% higher 30 days later, 27 points behind BTC; it had moved +1.5% in the 7 days before.
all-time high AR all-time high: $97.32
—
+82.8%
+9.2%
−16.4%
−23.1%
−16.4%
+8.1%
derived
Highest daily close in our price history. On Aug 31, 2021AR set an all-time high; it rose 9.2% by day 1 and was 23.1% lower 30 days later, 16 points behind BTC; it had moved +82.8% in the 7 days before.
Source: PatternPlus, computed from every token in the peer set · fetched
4
The full write-up
every sentence on AR · questions · sources
AR in short
Arweave (AR), a Storage token on Arweave with no start date recorded, stands at rank #163 by market cap as of Oct 14, 2026, 95.9% below its Aug 31, 2021 high.
As of Oct 14, 2026 the price is $4 (+2.9% over 24 hours), market cap $262.5M, fully diluted value $262.5M, holder count not reported, no TVL reported to DefiLlama.
Tags on CoinPaprika as of Oct 14, 2026: Big Data & Data Storage, DePIN, Layer 1 (L1).
Status on CoinPaprika: active; AR is the native coin of Arweave, so there is no token contract.
CoinPaprika tickers and DefiLlama, read Oct 14, 2026.
As of Oct 14, 2026 the record for Arweave runs to 7 events, of which 2 are spot listings, 3 perpetual listings, 0 unlocks, 0 hacks and 0 funding rounds; 7 carry a day-30 measurement with a median of −23.1%.
From the latest data refresh
Arweave (AR) is a Storage token on Arweave, rank #163 by market cap as of Oct 14, 2026, 95.9% below its Aug 31, 2021 high.
Its 5 measured listings show a median day-30 move of −29.0%, 2 of them above the venue median.
Since PatternPlus began recording on Oct 3, 2026 (12 daily snapshots), rank moved from #154 to #163.
AR is on 24 spot and 7 perpetual venues on record; the earliest dated listing was Binance (perp) on Sep 28, 2021.
5 of its listings have a measured day-30 outcome (median −29.0%); 2 finished above the venue's own listing median and 3 below.
No unlock schedule is on record for AR as of Oct 14, 2026.
No on-chain power check is on record for AR as of Oct 14, 2026.
No funding round is recorded by DefiLlama for Arweave as of Oct 14, 2026.
Arweave lists 0 audit links on DefiLlama; no hack is recorded as of Oct 14, 2026.
No team member is recorded on CoinPaprika for Arweave as of Oct 14, 2026.
No TVL or revenue is reported to DefiLlama for Arweave as of Oct 14, 2026.
The largest audience count is 5,477 reddit subscribers, read on Oct 14, 2026.
Development: 226 commits in 90 days on ArweaveTeam/arweave, last commit Oct 6, 2026.
Generated from this record's own rows at build time; as of Oct 14, 2026.
Across 1178 funding extreme lows across every token on record, the median move is −1.0% on day 1 and −5.0% by day 30; 41.6% were still up after 30 days; AR's one sits above that median at +4.3%.
Across 250 perpetual listings on OKX, the median move is −0.6% on day 1 and −16.9% by day 30;
36.4% were still up after 30 days;
AR's one sits above that median at −16.8%.
Across 253 spot listings on OKX, the median move is −0.9% on day 1 and −7.8% by day 30;
40.7% were still up after 30 days;
AR's one sits below that median at −40.3%.
Across 443 perpetual listings on Bybit, the median move is −0.2% on day 1 and −17.1% by day 30;
33.6% were still up after 30 days;
AR's one sits below that median at −29.0%.
Across 493 perpetual listings on Binance, the median move is −0.4% on day 1 and −15.5% by day 30;
39.1% were still up after 30 days;
AR's one sits above that median at +16.3%.
Across 664 all-time highs across every token on record, the median move is −3.5% on day 1 and −38.6% by day 30;
6.3% were still up after 30 days;
AR's one sits above that median at −23.1%.
Across 274 spot listings on Binance, the median move is −2.3% on day 1 and −19.8% by day 30;
32.5% were still up after 30 days;
AR's one sits below that median at −45.9%.
AR sits above the venue median in 4 of 7 venue-and-kind comparisons as of Oct 14, 2026.
event_stats recomputed nightly; as of Oct 14, 2026.
No on-chain power check is available for AR on Arweave as of Oct 14, 2026; every row of the panel is shown as unknown until GoPlus or the Jupiter token API answers.
Until then this site cannot say whether the issuer can mint, freeze or upgrade AR; the check is retried at every rebuild.
7 events since May 14, 2021; 5 of the 7 measured were followed by a lower price 30 days later; best Binance lists AR perpetual on Sep 28, 2021 (+16.3%), worst Binance Will List Arweave (AR) on May 14, 2021 (−45.9%).
1979 daily closes from May 14, 2021 to Oct 13, 2026 are plotted on a log scale, with the rank from 12 snapshots as a step line.
The all-time high marker sits at $97.32 on Aug 31, 2021, 1,870 days before Oct 14, 2026.
prices, metrics_daily, events and effects; as of Oct 14, 2026.
The change log holds 16 entries between Oct 5, 2026 and Oct 14, 2026; the newest reads: New record entry (funding low, Feb 28, 2026): Funding -26% a year: shorts paying longs.
As of Oct 14, 2026AR trades on 24 spot venues and 7 perpetual venues with dated listings, from Binance on Sep 28, 2021 to OKX on Feb 14, 2023; the first perpetual opened on Binance on Sep 28, 2021, 87 days before the first spot pair.
0 delistings are on record for AR as of Oct 14, 2026.
1059 of the 1087 tracked exchanges have no AR listing on record as of Oct 14, 2026 (Azbit, Coinbase, WEEX, Toobit, Batonex and Kraken, among others).
exchange_listings from instrument APIs and announcements; as of Oct 14, 2026.
Arweave trades 95.9% below its all-time high of $97.32, set on Aug 31, 2021, 1,870 days before Oct 14, 2026; over 30 days it moved 0.0% against 0.0% for BTC (beta 1.46).
Price change as of Oct 14, 2026: −1.2% over 1 hour, +2.9% over 24 hours, −6.5% over 7 days, 0.0% over 30 days, 0.0% over 1 year.
Market cap is 100.0% of fully diluted value ($262.5M of $262.5M), so 0.0% of the valuation sits in supply that does not circulate yet.
24-hour volume of $11.5M is 4.4% of market cap as of Oct 14, 2026.
Circulating supply is 65.7M of 65.7M total (100.0%) and a maximum of 66M.
The all tokens on record median 30-day change is 0.0% across 1669 tokens, so AR sits below its peer set.
CoinPaprika tickers read Oct 14, 2026; BTC comparison from the BTC record.
Arweave has 1 contract or mint address on record across 1 chain (arweave); it is the native coin of Arweave.
Description as published on CoinPaprika: Arweave (AR) is a decentralized storage network that enables users to store data permanently and immutably on a blockchain-like structure called the "blockweave." This allows for open access and archival of information in a way that prioritizes long-term data preservation. Source: CoinPaprika.com
No other token on record uses the symbol AR as of Oct 14, 2026.
No former name, former symbol or alias is recorded for Arweave as of Oct 14, 2026.
Identity fields from CoinPaprika as of Oct 14, 2026: start date not recorded, first market data Feb 4, 2021, proof type not stated, organisation structure not stated, whitepaper https://static.coinpaprika.com/storage/cdn/whitepapers/448373.pdf.
Cross-references as of Oct 14, 2026: CoinPaprika id ar-arweave, no DefiLlama slug, GitHub ArweaveTeam/arweave.
When the links were last read on Oct 14, 2026 the counts were 5,477 reddit subscribers, 4,907 telegram members and 1,083 twitter followers.
CoinPaprika /coins and DefiLlama /protocols (contract addresses), token_contracts, token_aliases; read Oct 14, 2026.
The main repository ArweaveTeam/arweave had 226 commits in the last 90 days and its last commit on Oct 6, 2026 (8 days before Oct 14, 2026); 1,078 stars, 59 contributors, GPL-2.0 licence.
The repository was created on Aug 2, 2017, is written mainly in Erlang and has 231 forks and 115 open issues.
Among 1669 all tokens on record tokens, Arweave is at the 90th percentile by market cap, 47th by distance from ATH and unranked by share unlocked as of Oct 14, 2026.
The peer median market cap is $10.4M, the median distance from ATH −95.5% and the median 30-day change 0.0%.
The nearest peers by rank are Falcon Finance (#162), Shuffle (#164), EURC (#161), The Graph (#165) and Monad (#160).
Market cap: $262.5M (P90 of 1669; peer median $10.4M).
Volume / market cap (24h): 4.37% (P62 of 1669; peer median 2.22%).
30-day change: 0.0% (P50 of 1669; peer median 0.0%).
Distance from ATH: −95.9% (P47 of 1669; peer median −95.5%).
Commits in 90 days: 226 (P84 of 49; peer median 0).
Exchanges: 27 (P50 of 206; peer median 27).
peer set: all tokens on record (1669 tokens); as of Oct 14, 2026.
As of Oct 13, 2026: AR's likely range tomorrow is −8.3% to +9.1% (8 in 10 similar past setups ended inside it), typical move 0.0%, from 2,515 similar past setups;
no clear edge on its direction: no call on it earned one out of sample.
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
What is the Arweave price prediction for this week?
As of Oct 13, 2026: AR's likely range over the next 7 days is −19.9% to +29.1% (8 in 10 similar past setups ended inside it), typical move −1.1%, from 2,477 similar past setups;
no clear edge on its direction: no call on it earned one out of sample.
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
What is the AR price prediction for the next 30 days?
As of Oct 13, 2026: AR's likely range over the next 30 days is −38.5% to +35.7% (8 in 10 similar past setups ended inside it), typical move −12.5%, from 2,384 similar past setups;
no clear edge on its direction: no call on it earned one out of sample.
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
How accurate are these AR predictions?
Across 45 backtested 30-day calls on AR, the call was right 55.6% of the time and the price ended inside the likely range 75.0% of the time.
Of the last 6 30-day calls, 0 of 6 were right.
Each backtest call used only the data available on its own date.
Who is behind Arweave?
No team member is recorded on CoinPaprika for Arweave as of Oct 14, 2026; the organisation is described as not stated.
When is the next AR unlock?
No future unlock is on record for AR as of Oct 14, 2026.
Is AR listed on Binance?
Yes; Binance listed AR and perpetual futures on Sep 28, 2021; the price moved −8.9% on day 1 and −45.9% by day 30.
How far is AR from its all-time high?
95.9% below the $97.32 high of Aug 31, 2021, 1,870 days ago, at $4 on Oct 14, 2026.
Has Arweave been hacked?
No hack is on record for Arweave as of Oct 14, 2026; 0 audit links are listed.
What happened when Binance listed AR?
On May 14, 2021AR fell 8.9% by day 1 and was 45.9% lower 30 days later, 24 points behind BTC.
Related records
Related records
as of · chosen deterministically from the joins on this page
10 related token records are linked below, plus 28 exchanges (BYDFi (Spot), Biconomy, BigONE, Binance, Binance Futures and BingX) as of Oct 14, 2026.
926 older closes on 1 coins, back to 2021-01-19; 1 reached their first Binance day, 0 stopped at a 10x day or a gap, 0 older tickers of another coin left out, 0 with nothing older; 0 for later nights
4,717 market-days stored tonight (340,228 futures and 456,832 spot held, the oldest 2019-09-08 on futures and 2017-08-17 on spot); 600 of 600 markets finished (300 futures, 300 spot; each back to its first day), 0 left for later nights; 0 days left out by the price check (the market was another coin then); 0 errors; 7 walks ended at a gap of over 45 days or a 10x day; 4 days stored with no close of ours to check against; 248 mapped markets not on Binance's lists of trading USDT markets; the busiest minute used 129 of the 2,400 request weight Binance allows on futures, 296 of the 6,000 request weight Binance allows on spot
1,904 coin-days stored tonight (325,507 held, the oldest 2020-08-05); 300 of 300 coins finished (each back to its contract's first day), 0 left for later nights; 0 days left out by the price check (the contract was another coin then); 0 errors; 9 days stored with no close of ours to check against; 1 mapped contract not on Bybit's list of trading perpetuals
73,340 coin-driver tests; 211 proven on 133 coins, 3379 likely; 64,202 more by the trimmed mean in the same cut, which found 65 proven and 188 likely more that earn with the tails in, and 654 more that did not on their newer half (dropped)
2026-10-14 04:46 UTC
none
—
earned
33 of 33 quarterly cutoffs walked (2018-10-01 .. 2026-10-01) in 255 s: 30 kinds of proven driver called, 2 earned (sector_down 1d, eth_down 1d); 62 kinds of likely driver, 5 earned (sector_down 1d, eth_down 1d, btc_down 1d, pump 7d, btc_down 7d); the engine on 357 of 357 weekly dates in 26 s: 0 of 9 bands earned
2026-10-14 22:03 UTC
none
—
edge
40 kinds of event against their coins' ordinary days, by day; a clear edge (95% range, both halves agree) up for fees_jump, funding_low, futures_listing, spx_drop, down for delisting, fear, futures_listing, hack, kr_discount, listing, retail, tvl_jump
2026-10-14 21:58 UTC
none
—
effects
13460 effects, 56 stats rows
2026-10-14 04:42 UTC
none
—
etherscan
verified source, proxy/implementation, licence, contract creator and creation date
44576 of 10609 7-day cases in 15-minute closes; 3583 added tonight
2026-10-14 05:27 UTC
none
—
fred
GDP first estimates: 32, next 2026-10-29; jobs reports: 97, next 2026-11-06; PCE inflation releases: 95, next 2026-10-29; PPI releases: 101, next 2026-10-15; retail sales releases: 102, next 2026-10-15
0 dead coins, 0 daily rows, for the case pools only (off unless switched on); of the price file's 507 coins, 472 are priced by us and 35 still traded within 60 days of its newest day, 2026-09-29
2026-10-14 04:25 UTC
none
—
hedgey
10 of 108 coins hold Hedgey vesting; 23 contracts still being read for the first time
176 of our coins trade as Hyperliquid perps; 69 read up to now tonight (127 pages), 27030 coin-days stored; 404 funding extremes; the rest of the history comes over the next nights
1035 of 1669 coins have a logo (coingecko 880, trustwallet 130, website 9, jupiter 8, github 8). Tonight 28 asked: 5 from coingecko; 23 with none yet. Without one, by rank: RAIN, CC, CC, BTC.B, FRXETH, VSOL, BEAM, DATA, SUSDAI, ZEC, PLSX, SCNSOL (drop a file in data/curated/logos/<slug>.png)
5,610 chances (935 coins x 6 targets) as of 2026-10-13, 3,650 in a band; 33 of 33 quarterly cutoffs walked (2018-10-01 .. 2026-10-01): 4 of 18 bands earned (abs1_lean, abs1_strong, abs1_calls, rel1_strong); 442 s
2026-10-14 22:10 UTC
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models
pattern lines: each named pattern's own 30-day path, its chance of a higher price and how often its calls were right
3338 rules tested; 10 survived discovery and the holdout (3 new tonight): funding_7:high:3d:q10:all:clean, funding_7:high:3d:q10:all, volume_trend:low:1d:q10:bear; 1910 distinct rules, each pool by each detector in one false-discovery cut; the trimmed-mean test found 34 more past discovery, 7 of them earning with the tails back in; 18 in the book
181 of 181 coins due fetched (153 from CoinGecko, 28 from CoinPaprika; 29 with schedule files, 349 of the top 400); no CoinGecko id for 28: TON, LUNC, CFX, KITE, WIF, THETA
18 of 355 coins with 120+ days of supply history release on a monthly or quarterly pattern; 79 releases projected: APT (monthly, day 14), ARB (quarterly, day 18), ARKM (monthly, day 19), BDX (quarterly, day 2), CRO (monthly, day 18), ENA (monthly, day 6), ETHFI (quarterly, day 17), GRASS (monthly, day 29), IO (monthly, day 1), KCS (quarterly, day 1), ME (monthly, day 3), MOVE (monthly, day 10)
2026-10-14 03:50 UTC
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teamfinance
3 of 107 coins hold Team Finance vesting; 2 contracts still being read for the first time
2 of 5 feeds read, 5 series kept, 496 points written tonight; failed: gdelt:ethereum: HTTP 429: Please limit requests to one every 5 seconds or contact [email protected] for larger queries. All high-traf; gdelt:stablecoin: HTTP 429: Please limit requests to one every 5 seconds or contact [email protected] for larger queries. All high-tr; gdelt:hack: HTTP 429: Please limit requests to one every 5 seconds or contact [email protected] for larger queries. All high-traffic
2 of 3 feeds read, 11 series kept, 148 points written tonight; failed: gdelt_coins:bch: HTTP 429: Please limit requests to one every 5 seconds or contact [email protected] for larger queries. All high-tra
Effects are measured as described on the methodology page. Facts are compiled from public sources; nothing on this page is advice. Corrections: [email protected].
ethplorer last fetched successfully on Oct 14, 2026 03:41 UTC;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-14T03:41:54+00:00 HTTP 429 https://api.ethplorer.io/getTokenInfo/0x4da27), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
x_bitmex last fetched successfully on Oct 13, 2026 04:25 UTC;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-14T04:28:43+00:00 bitmex:btc: HTTP 503: <!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="en">), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
This page is generated from 8,773 database rows and rebuilt daily; first published Oct 5, 2026.
PatternPlus compiles facts from public sources and gives no financial advice; corrections by email. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this
Band 1 is the prediction: how far the price is likely to swing and how often a leveraged trade was liquidated, then a direction only where a call earned it out of sample, with the real past setups behind it drawn as they moved.
Band 2 is why: the drivers, the next events and how our past calls on this coin went.
Band 3 is the data: every table and chart, dated; green means the price was higher afterwards, red lower.
Band 4 is the write-up: the same record in words, with the questions and the sources.
