Market cap $66.78M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
No pattern has a proven 1-day record on this coin yet — the call above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 48% chance higher tomorrow · this pattern's 1d calls hit 47.5% of 12,192 — no better than a coin flip so far · drawn from the 2105 setups matched for the 30-day prediction
next day
−40%−30%−20%−10%0%−10%−5%0%+5%+10%+29% in 30 days↑ 95% below its all-time high
−30dnow+1d
▲ 9 rose · ▼ 13 fell · ◆ 8 sideways(±1.5% over 1 day)
Bold: MERL's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 2105 setups matched for the 30-day prediction, and what each did over the next day — real hourly closes, scaled to MERL's volatility. 7 with no hourly path on file yet are drawn through their daily lows, highs and closes.
Bad case$0.0285−5%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$0.0301−0.2%half did better, half worse
Good case$0.0319+6%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−0.2%
Likely range
−5% to +6%$0.0285 – $0.0319
2,556 similar setups · our 1-day calls hit 50.2% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
MERL price prediction for this week
56%chance MERL is lower
▼ LEAN DOWN
Market cap $66.78M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
No pattern has a proven 7-day record on this coin yet — the call above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 44% chance higher in 7 days · this pattern's 7d calls hit 59.1% of 38,104 — no better than always guessing the usual direction (60%) so far · drawn from the 2105 setups matched for the 30-day prediction
next 7 days
−40%−30%−20%−10%0%−20%0%+20%+40%+29% in 30 days↑ 95% below its all-time high
−30dnow+7d
▲ 9 rose · ▼ 14 fell · ◆ 7 sideways(±5.7% over 7 days)
Bold: MERL's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 2105 setups matched for the 30-day prediction, and what each did over the next 7 days — real 4-hour closes, scaled to MERL's volatility. 7 with no 4-hour path on file yet are drawn through their daily lows, highs and closes.
Bad case$0.0248−18%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$0.0296−1.8%half did better, half worse
Good case$0.0355+18%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−1.8%
Likely range
−18% to +18%$0.0248 – $0.0355
2,412 similar setups · our 7-day calls hit 59.2% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
MERL price prediction for the next 30 days
70%chance MERL is lower
▼ STRONG DOWN
Market cap $66.78M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
No pattern has a proven record on this coin yet — the prediction above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 30% chance higher in 30 days · drawn from its 2105 matched past setups
next 30 days
−40%−30%−20%−10%0%−50%0%+50%+100%+29% in 30 days↑ 95% below its all-time high
−30dnow+30d
▲ 4 rose · ▼ 18 fell · ◆ 8 sideways(±7.4% over 30 days)
Bold: MERL's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 2105 past setups like this, and what each did over the next 30 days — real daily closes, scaled to MERL's volatility.
Bad case$0.0191−37%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$0.0267−11.4%half did better, half worse
Good case$0.0387+28%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−11.4%
Likely range
−37% to +28%$0.0191 – $0.0387
2,105 similar setups · our 30-day calls hit 62.9% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
Pick a side, when you close and your leverage: we replay that exact trade on the past cases behind this MERL prediction and count how it ended.
Best historical window for MERL in setups like this: short, hold 30 days, 1× — profitable 70.0% of the time, typical +11.4% (n=2105).
Chance this ends in profit—
Typical result—half did better, half worse
Chance you get liquidated first—
Every past case, replayedhover or tap a line to see the case
price went your way —against you —sideways —(within ±5.5% over 30 days)✕liquidated —take profit hit —stop loss hit —typical8 in 10 cases
Replays 383 past cases weighted exactly like the 30-day prediction: the 2,105 similar cases behind it plus a sample of all history.
Where the odds were best· swipe for longer holds →
cell = chance of profit color = average result, −50% or worse to +50% or better striped = liquidated in more than 1 in 10★ best: highest typical result with at most 1 in 10 liquidated, most cases in profit and an average above zerono take profit or stop loss · tap a cell to load it
The planner and its replay chart run in your browser: turn on JavaScript to replay your own MERL trade on these past cases.
Odds from similar past cases, not financial advice. Leverage multiplies losses too: a liquidated position loses its whole margin.
Where to trade MERL · by share of the last day's volume
MERL$0.031852% ▼ 1Dbest play▼ Short 1D 9× → +3.6%open calculator
MERL$0.031856% ▼ 7Dbest play▼ Short 7D 3× → +7.2%open calculator
MERL$0.031870% ▼ 30Dbest play▼ Short 30D 1× → +11%open calculator
2
Why we think this
the reasoning, in short
Drivers
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in MERL's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (2,556 cases) into 48% higher.
94% below its high
94% below its all-time high. Coins that far below their high were higher a day later 47% of the time (138,098 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 47% · normal 46% higher a day later
Normal volume
Trading volume is in its normal range. On normal-volume days, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (174,983 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average. In that situation, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (94,012 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Up 29% over 30 days
Up 29% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (41,705 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher 7 days later 42% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in MERL's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (2,412 cases) into 44% higher.
Up 29% over 30 days
Up 29% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher a week later 43% of the time (40,654 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 43% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Small-cap
Small-cap coin ($66.8M market cap). Coins this size were higher a week later 42% of the time (64,351 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 42% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Within 7% of a week ago
Within 7% of its price a week ago (+1%). After a week like that, coins were higher a week later 42% of the time (91,745 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 42% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
94% below its high
94% below its all-time high. Coins that far below their high were higher a week later 42% of the time (136,394 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 42% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher 30 days later 36% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in MERL's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (2,105 cases) into 30% higher.
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average. In that situation, coins were higher 30 days later 39% of the time (84,631 cases), vs 36% across all cases.
here 39% · normal 36% higher 30 days later
Up 29% over 30 days
Up 29% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher 30 days later 34% of the time (36,874 cases), vs 36% across all cases.
here 34% · normal 36% higher 30 days later
Small-cap
Small-cap coin ($66.8M market cap). Coins this size were higher 30 days later 34% of the time (62,747 cases), vs 36% across all cases.
here 34% · normal 36% higher 30 days later
94% below its high
94% below its all-time high. Coins that far below their high were higher 30 days later 38% of the time (129,463 cases), vs 36% across all cases.
here 38% · normal 36% higher 30 days later
What moves MERL
LIKELYWhen a big spot ETF outflow day came, MERL ended higher the next day 31% of the time, against 47% on any day13 cases · on average -4.1% against -0.1% · last Sep 17, 2026
tested coin by coin every night, each cause against MERL's own moves on any day (its biggest days capped) · proven: past the cut for testing thousands at once, both halves of its history agree, 12 cases or more · likely: weaker evidence, watch it · what moves every coin
Our record on MERL
Our last 6 calls on MERL over 30 days: right on 0 of 6 · 4 of 6 ended inside our range · all-time on MERL: 64.6% hit rate, 72.9% inside the range (48 backtested calls)
Aug 2 said 61% down · ended +14.1%✗ wrongAug 9 said 67% down · ended +22.8%✗ wrongAug 16 said 64% down · ended +22.8%✗ wrongAug 23 said 72% down · ended +61.4%✗ wrongAug 30 said 71% down · ended +48.9%✗ wrongSep 6 said 67% down · ended +29.4%✗ wrong
white: MERL's real price after each call · bar: the range we gave (8 in 10 cases, the middle half thicker, a notch at the typical move) · end dot: green right · red wrong · orange the price went sideways (within ±5.5% over 30 days) or a coin flip · backtest: each call used only data available that day · live since Oct 4, 2026: 3 live 30-day predictions on record, first result due Nov 3, 2026 · the full scorecard →
last 6 months · daily close · candle = 2 sessions◆ recorded event · dotted blue line = last price · orange = the price went sideways (within ±1.4% over 2 days)
as of · generated from this record's own rowsread it →
events on record
7
higher 30 days after
0 of 1
typical 30-day move
−35.3%
next up
—
Every eventMEASURED7 events
The record: every event and what followed
as of · CoinPaprika · DefiLlama · exchange announcements · PatternPlus effectsread it →
MERL: 7 events, newest first; six signed numbers per row are the price change from the close before the event, in UTC; vs BTC is the difference of the two 30-day moves
MERLUSDT perpetual trading. On May 29, 2025Binance opened perpetual futures for MERL; it fell 17.7% by day 1 and was 35.3% lower 30 days later, 35 points behind BTC.
2024
all-time high MERL all-time high: $0.6722
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
derived
Highest daily close in our price history. MERL set an all-time high on Jun 2, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
MERL's protocol TVL (DefiLlama) rose 20% during 2024-05-12, from $1.04bn, and held at the next reading. Dated 2024-05-14, when that was clear; the move is the coin's from the close before. MERL saw a TVL surge on May 14, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
MERLUSDT perpetual trading (quotes: USDC, USDT). Bybit opened perpetual futures for MERL on Apr 19, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
MERL-USDT spot trading (quotes: EUR, TRY, USDT, USDC). OKX listed MERL on Apr 19, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
MERL-USDT-SWAP perpetual trading. OKX opened perpetual futures for MERL on Apr 19, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
MERL's protocol TVL (DefiLlama) rose 38% during 2024-02-10, from $274M, and held at the next reading. Dated 2024-02-12, when that was clear; the move is the coin's from the close before. MERL saw a TVL surge on Feb 12, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
Source: events from CoinPaprika, DefiLlama and exchange announcements; effects computed by PatternPlus (see methodology) · fetched
Against the venue medianMEASURED
How MERL's events compare with the venue median
as of · event_stats computed by PatternPlusread it →
Venue · kind
MERL median day 30
MERL n
Venue median day 30
Venue n
Up after 30 d (venue)
Position
Binance · perpetual listing
−35.3%
1
−19.3%
248
33.9%
below
Venue · kind
MERL median day 7
MERL n
Venue median day 7
Venue n
Up after 7 d (venue)
Position
Binance · perpetual listing
−25.2%
1
−8.4%
—
—
below
Day 7: the venue's event count and up-share are kept for day 30 only (—); its median uses every event measured to day 7.
Venue · kind
MERL median day 1
MERL n
Venue median day 1
Venue n
Up after 1 d (venue)
Position
Binance · perpetual listing
−17.7%
1
−0.7%
—
—
below
Day 1: the venue's event count and up-share are kept for day 30 only (—); its median uses every event measured to day 1.
Source: PatternPlus, computed from every token in the peer set · fetched
4
The full write-up
every sentence on MERL · questions · sources
MERL in short
Filed under crypto on its own chain, Merlin Chain (MERL) has been with no start date recorded; it holds rank #335 by market cap as of Oct 6, 2026 and trades 95.3% below its Jun 2, 2024 high.
As of Oct 6, 2026 the price is $0.0318 (0.0% over 24 hours), market cap $66.8M, fully diluted value $66.8M, holder count not reported, $459.5M TVL.
Status on CoinPaprika: active; MERL is the native coin of its own chain, so there is no token contract.
CoinPaprika tickers and DefiLlama, read Oct 6, 2026.
This site has 7 past events for Merlin Chain: 1 exchange listings, 3 futures listings, 0 unlocks, 0 hacks and 0 funding rounds; the median 30-day move after the 1 measured events was −35.3%.
From the latest data refresh
Merlin Chain (MERL) is a crypto token on its own chain, rank #335 by market cap as of Oct 6, 2026, 95.3% below its Jun 2, 2024 high.
Its 1 measured listing shows a median day-30 move of −35.3%, 0 of it above the venue median.
4 daily snapshots run from Oct 3, 2026 to Oct 6, 2026; over that span the rank went from #340 to #335.
2 spot pairs and 3 perpetual instruments are live for MERL as of Oct 6, 2026, starting with OKX on Apr 19, 2024.
1 of its listings have a measured day-30 outcome (median −35.3%); 0 finished above the venue's own listing median and 1 below.
No unlock schedule is on record for MERL as of Oct 6, 2026.
No on-chain power check is on record for MERL as of Oct 6, 2026.
No funding round is recorded by DefiLlama for Merlin Chain as of Oct 6, 2026.
Merlin Chain lists 0 audit links on DefiLlama; no hack is recorded as of Oct 6, 2026.
No team member is recorded on CoinPaprika for Merlin Chain as of Oct 6, 2026.
DefiLlama reports $459.5M TVL and not reported revenue over 30 days as of Oct 6, 2026.
Generated from this record's own rows at build time; as of Oct 6, 2026.
Across 248 perpetual listings on Binance, the median move is −0.7% on day 1 and −19.3% by day 30; 33.9% were still up after 30 days; MERL's one sits below that median at −35.3%.
MERL sits above the venue median in 0 of 1 venue-and-kind comparisons as of Oct 6, 2026.
event_stats recomputed nightly; as of Oct 6, 2026.
No on-chain power check is available for MERL on its own chain as of Oct 6, 2026; every row of the panel is shown as unknown until GoPlus or the Jupiter token API answers.
Until then this site cannot say whether the issuer can mint, freeze or upgrade MERL; the check is retried at every rebuild.
7 events since Feb 12, 2024; 1 of the 1 measured were followed by a lower price 30 days later; best Binance lists MERL perpetual on May 29, 2025 (−35.3%), worst Binance lists MERL perpetual on May 29, 2025 (−35.3%).
502 daily closes from May 23, 2025 to Oct 6, 2026 are plotted on a log scale, with the rank from 4 snapshots as a step line.
The all-time high marker sits at $0.6722 on Jun 2, 2024, 856 days before Oct 6, 2026.
prices, metrics_daily, events and effects; as of Oct 6, 2026.
6 changes are logged for this page since Oct 5, 2026; the latest, on Oct 6, 2026, is: noindexed at export: unique_text_ratio 0.597 below 0.6 (LAW 2 index rule).
Changed since Oct 5, 2026: index index,follow → noindex,follow (Oct 6) · index index,follow → noindex,follow (Oct 6) · event futures_listing → 26,988 (Oct 5) · event futures_listing → 26,353 (Oct 5).
The fields that changed most often were event (4) and index (2).
Changes logged for this record: 6 in the last 30 days as of Oct 6, 2026.
As of Oct 6, 2026 MERL trades on 2 spot venues and 3 perpetual venues with dated listings, from OKX on Apr 19, 2024 to Binance on May 29, 2025; the first perpetual opened on OKX on Apr 19, 2024, the same day as the first spot pair.
0 delistings are on record for MERL as of Oct 6, 2026.
1084 of the 1087 tracked exchanges have no MERL listing on record as of Oct 6, 2026 (Pionex, Azbit, Coinbase, Bitget, WEEX and Biconomy, among others).
exchange_listings from instrument APIs and announcements; as of Oct 6, 2026.
Merlin Chain trades 95.3% below its all-time high of $0.6722, set on Jun 2, 2024, 856 days before Oct 6, 2026; over 30 days it moved 0.0% against 0.0% for BTC (beta 0.82).
Price change as of Oct 6, 2026: −0.2% over 1 hour, 0.0% over 24 hours, +13.8% over 7 days, 0.0% over 30 days, 0.0% over 1 year.
Market cap is 100.0% of fully diluted value ($66.8M of $66.8M), so 0.0% of the valuation sits in supply that does not circulate yet.
24-hour volume of $2.8M is 4.2% of market cap as of Oct 6, 2026.
Circulating supply is 2.1B of 2.1B total (100.0%) and a maximum of 2.1B.
The all tokens on record median 30-day change is 0.0% across 1541 tokens, so MERL sits below its peer set.
CoinPaprika tickers read Oct 6, 2026; BTC comparison from the BTC record.
1 address identify Merlin Chain on merlin; as the native coin of its own chain it has no token contract.
No other token on record uses the symbol MERL as of Oct 6, 2026.
No former name, former symbol or alias is recorded for Merlin Chain as of Oct 6, 2026.
Identity fields from CoinPaprika as of Oct 6, 2026: start date not recorded, first market data Apr 29, 2024, proof type not stated, organisation structure not stated, no whitepaper link.
Cross-references as of Oct 6, 2026: CoinPaprika id merl-merlin-chain, DefiLlama slug merlins-seal, no GitHub repository recorded.
No follower or star counts were read for Merlin Chain as of Oct 6, 2026.
CoinPaprika /coins and DefiLlama /protocols (contract addresses), token_contracts, token_aliases; read Oct 6, 2026.
Among 1541 all tokens on record tokens, Merlin Chain is at the 78th percentile by market cap, 47th by distance from ATH and unranked by share unlocked as of Oct 6, 2026.
The peer median market cap is $13.7M, the median distance from ATH −94.7% and the median 30-day change 0.0%.
The nearest peers by rank are Phala Network (#335), BUSD (#334), Enjin Coin (#333), MeMusic (#337) and Baby Doge Coin (#332).
Market cap: $66.8M (P78 of 1541; peer median $13.7M).
Volume / market cap (24h): 4.23% (P60 of 1541; peer median 2.49%).
30-day change: 0.0% (P50 of 1541; peer median 0.0%).
Distance from ATH: −95.3% (P47 of 1541; peer median −94.7%).
TVL: $459.5M (P86 of 421; peer median $5.4M).
peer set: all tokens on record (1541 tokens); as of Oct 6, 2026.
483 of our coins trade as Binance perpetuals; the 200 biggest read: 197 tonight (open interest, accounts long, top traders, takers), funding caught up on 196 (93889 readings); 75341 coin-days stored; 774 funding extremes as events; the rest comes over the next nights
45,323 coin-driver tests; 23 proven on 20 coins, 1840 likely
2026-10-06 04:21 UTC
none
—
edge
35 kinds of event against their coins' ordinary days, by day; a clear edge (95% range, both halves agree) up for cpi, fees_jump, funding_low, down for delisting, futures_listing, hack, kr_discount, listing
2026-10-06 05:12 UTC
none
—
effects
11829 effects, 51 stats rows
2026-10-06 04:20 UTC
none
—
etherscan
skipped: no ETHERSCAN_KEY in data/config_local.py or the environment
521 of our coins trade as Gate USDT perpetuals; 512 read tonight, 88377 coin-days stored; 4 liquidation spikes as events; the rest is read on the next nights
176 of our coins trade as Hyperliquid perps; 23 read up to now tonight (122 pages), 9278 coin-days stored; 153 funding extremes; the rest of the history comes over the next nights
819 of 1541 coins have a logo (coingecko 709, trustwallet 105, jupiter 4, website 1). Tonight 0 asked. Without one, by rank: RAIN, CC, WETH, JITOSOL, RETH, KHYPE, RSETH, WBNB, SUSDE, SYRUPUSDC, METH, JLP (drop a file in data/curated/logos/<slug>.png)
7 proven signals: ath after (30d), ath after (7d), funding_low after (1d), pump after (1d), pump after (7d), unlock after (1d), vol_spike after (1d); 29 of tonight's predictions moved
2026-10-06 04:20 UTC
none
—
snapshot
daily snapshots and the change log
2026-10-06 04:38 UTC
none
—
snapshot_org
1423 governance votes on 40 coins from 40 Snapshot spaces; tonight 0 proposals read (to 2026-09-10), 0 big closed ones kept, 3 open or pending; 0 events new, 0 removed
167 rules tested; 4 survived discovery and the holdout (4 new tonight): max_30:low:1d:q20:all, skew_30:low:14d:q10:all, volume_trend:low:1d:q10:all; 4 in the book
57 of 260 coins due fetched (4 from CoinGecko, 53 from CoinPaprika; 29 with schedule files, 350 of the top 400); no CoinGecko id for 2: STABLE, WTRX; CoinGecko stopped: HTTP 429
10 of 169 coins with 120+ days of supply history release on a monthly or quarterly pattern; 39 releases projected: APT (monthly, day 14), ARB (quarterly, day 18), ENA (monthly, day 6), ETHFI (quarterly, day 17), GRASS (monthly, day 29), IO (monthly, day 1), KCS (quarterly, day 1), MOVE (monthly, day 9), STRK (quarterly, day 16), WLD (quarterly, day 21)
2026-10-06 03:35 UTC
none
—
teamfinance
1 of 42 coins hold Team Finance vesting; 4 contracts still being read for the first time
2 of 5 feeds read, 2 series kept, 158 points written tonight; failed: gdelt:ethereum: HTTP 429: Please limit requests to one every 5 seconds or contact [email protected] for larger queries. All high-traf; gdelt:regulation: HTTP 429: Please limit requests to one every 5 seconds or contact [email protected] for larger queries. All high-tr; gdelt:hack: HTTP 429: Please limit requests to one every 5 seconds or contact [email protected] for larger queries. All high-traffic
Effects are measured as described on the methodology page. Facts are compiled from public sources; nothing on this page is advice. Corrections: [email protected].
ethplorer last fetched successfully on Oct 6, 2026 03:31 UTC;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-06T03:31:11+00:00 HTTP 429 https://api.ethplorer.io/getTokenInfo/0xabd4c), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
fred last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-06T03:35:01+00:00 no FRED_API_KEY: the jobs, PPI, PCE, GDP and retail sa), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
x_coinpaprika_g last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-06T04:11:08+00:00 coinpaprika_g:global: HTTP 402: { "type":"payment_requ), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
This page is generated from 5,623 database rows and rebuilt daily; first published Oct 5, 2026.
PatternPlus compiles facts from public sources and gives no financial advice; corrections by email. As of Oct 6, 2026.
How to read this
Band 1 is the prediction: the chance of a higher price, the typical move and the likely range, with the real past setups behind it drawn as they moved.
Band 2 is why: the drivers, the next events and how our past calls on this coin went.
Band 3 is the data: every table and chart, dated; green means the price was higher afterwards, red lower.
Band 4 is the write-up: the same record in words, with the questions and the sources.
