Market cap $302.42M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
No pattern has a proven 1-day record on this coin yet — the call above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 50% chance higher tomorrow · this pattern's 1d calls hit 47.5% of 12,192 — no better than a coin flip so far · drawn from the 382 setups matched for the 30-day prediction
next day
−60%−40%−20%0%+20%−25%0%+25%+50%+75%+149% in 30 days↑ 18% below its all-time high
−30dnow+1d
▲ 12 rose · ▼ 12 fell · ◆ 6 sideways(±5.1% over 1 day)
Bold: DRV's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 382 setups matched for the 30-day prediction, and what each did over the next day — real hourly closes, scaled to DRV's volatility. 9 with no hourly path on file yet are drawn through their daily lows, highs and closes.
Bad case$0.342−16%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$0.409−0.2%half did better, half worse
Good case$0.498+22%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−0.2%
Likely range
−16% to +22%$0.342 – $0.498
410 similar setups · our 1-day calls hit 50.2% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
DRV price prediction for this week
60%chance DRV is lower
▼ STRONG DOWN
Market cap $302.42M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
No pattern has a proven 7-day record on this coin yet — the call above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 40% chance higher in 7 days · this pattern's 7d calls hit 59.1% of 38,104 — no better than always guessing the usual direction (60%) so far · drawn from the 382 setups matched for the 30-day prediction
next 7 days
−60%−40%−20%0%+20%−100%0%+100%+200%+149% in 30 days↑ 18% below its all-time high
−30dnow+7d
▲ 7 rose · ▼ 16 fell · ◆ 7 sideways(±13% over 7 days)
Bold: DRV's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 382 setups matched for the 30-day prediction, and what each did over the next 7 days — real 4-hour closes, scaled to DRV's volatility. 9 with no 4-hour path on file yet are drawn through their daily lows, highs and closes.
Bad case$0.231−44%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$0.366−10.6%half did better, half worse
Good case$0.756+85%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−10.6%
Likely range
−44% to +85%$0.231 – $0.756
407 similar setups · our 7-day calls hit 59.2% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
DRV price prediction for the next 30 days
66%chance DRV is lower
▼ STRONG DOWN
Market cap $302.42M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
No pattern has a proven record on this coin yet — the prediction above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 34% chance higher in 30 days · drawn from its 382 matched past setups
next 30 days
−60%−40%−20%0%+20%0%+200%+400%+149% in 30 days↑ 18% below its all-time high
−30dnow+30d
▲ 2 rose · ▼ 23 fell · ◆ 5 sideways(±25% over 30 days)
Bold: DRV's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 382 past setups like this, and what each did over the next 30 days — real daily closes, scaled to DRV's volatility.
Bad case$0.124−70%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$0.300−26.6%half did better, half worse
Good case$0.915+123%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−26.6%
Likely range
−70% to +123%$0.124 – $0.915
382 similar setups · our 30-day calls hit 62.9% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
Pick a side, when you close and your leverage: we replay that exact trade on the past cases behind this DRV prediction and count how it ended.
No trade window for DRV was profitable in most similar past cases with a positive average result and liquidations at or under 10% (n=382).
Chance this ends in profit—
Typical result—half did better, half worse
Chance you get liquidated first—
Every past case, replayedhover or tap a line to see the case
price went your way —against you —sideways —(within ±2.6% over 7 days)✕liquidated —take profit hit —stop loss hit —typical8 in 10 cases
Replays 356 past cases weighted exactly like the 30-day prediction: the 382 similar cases behind it plus a sample of all history.
Where the odds were best· swipe for longer holds →
cell = chance of profit color = average result, −50% or worse to +50% or better striped = liquidated in more than 1 in 10★ best: highest typical result with at most 1 in 10 liquidated, most cases in profit and an average above zerono take profit or stop loss · tap a cell to load it
The planner and its replay chart run in your browser: turn on JavaScript to replay your own DRV trade on these past cases.
Odds from similar past cases, not financial advice. Leverage multiplies losses too: a liquidated position loses its whole margin.
Where to trade DRV · by share of the last day's volume
DRV$0.410050% ▼ 1Dbest playno play cleared the bar at 1Dopen calculator
DRV$0.410060% ▼ 7Dbest playno play cleared the bar at 7Dopen calculator
DRV$0.410066% ▼ 30Dbest playno play cleared the bar at 30Dopen calculator
2
Why we think this
the reasoning, in short
Drivers
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in DRV's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (410 cases) into 50% higher.
Up 7% over 7 days
Up 7% this week. After a week like that, coins were higher a day later 45% of the time (38,795 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 45% · normal 46% higher a day later
16% below its high
16% below its all-time high. Coins this close to their high were higher a day later 45% of the time (7,631 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 45% · normal 46% higher a day later
Normal volume
Trading volume is in its normal range. On normal-volume days, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (174,983 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average. In that situation, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (94,012 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher 7 days later 42% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in DRV's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (407 cases) into 40% higher.
16% below its high
16% below its all-time high. Coins this close to their high were higher a week later 44% of the time (7,577 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 44% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Up 7% over 7 days
Up 7% this week. After a week like that, coins were higher a week later 40% of the time (38,441 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 40% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Up 149% over 30 days
Up 149% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher a week later 43% of the time (40,654 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 43% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Small-cap
Small-cap coin ($302.4M market cap). Coins this size were higher a week later 42% of the time (64,351 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 42% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher 30 days later 36% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in DRV's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (382 cases) into 34% higher.
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average. In that situation, coins were higher 30 days later 39% of the time (84,631 cases), vs 36% across all cases.
here 39% · normal 36% higher 30 days later
Up 149% over 30 days
Up 149% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher 30 days later 34% of the time (36,874 cases), vs 36% across all cases.
here 34% · normal 36% higher 30 days later
16% below its high
16% below its all-time high. Coins this close to their high were higher 30 days later 38% of the time (7,372 cases), vs 36% across all cases.
here 38% · normal 36% higher 30 days later
Small-cap
Small-cap coin ($302.4M market cap). Coins this size were higher 30 days later 34% of the time (62,747 cases), vs 36% across all cases.
here 34% · normal 36% higher 30 days later
What moves DRV
LIKELYWhen a big spot ETF inflow day came, DRV ended higher a week later 58% of the time, against 46% on any day12 cases · on average +18.3% against +3.3% · last Sep 22, 2026
LIKELYWhen a big spot ETF outflow day came, DRV ended higher a week later 70% of the time, against 46% on any day10 cases · on average +18.8% against +3.3% · last Sep 17, 2026
tested coin by coin every night, each cause against DRV's own moves on any day (its biggest days capped) · proven: past the cut for testing thousands at once, both halves of its history agree, 12 cases or more · likely: weaker evidence, watch it · what moves every coin
Our record on DRV
Our last 6 calls on DRV over 30 days: right on 0 of 6 · 1 of 6 ended inside our range · all-time on DRV: 36.2% hit rate, 66.7% inside the range (47 backtested calls)
Aug 2 said 72% down · ended +44.3%✗ wrongAug 9 said 75% down · ended +68.5%✗ wrongAug 16 said 66% down · ended +32.4%✗ wrongAug 23 said 70% down · ended +231.3%✗ wrongAug 30 said 68% down · ended +146.2%✗ wrongSep 6 said 68% down · ended +148.8%✗ wrong
white: DRV's real price after each call · bar: the range we gave (8 in 10 cases, the middle half thicker, a notch at the typical move) · end dot: green right · red wrong · orange the price went sideways (within ±5.5% over 30 days) or a coin flip · backtest: each call used only data available that day · live since Oct 4, 2026: 3 live 30-day predictions on record, first result due Nov 3, 2026 · the full scorecard →
last 6 months · daily close · candle = 2 sessions◆ recorded event · dotted blue line = last price · orange = the price went sideways (within ±1.4% over 2 days)
as of · generated from this record's own rowsread it →
events on record
26
higher 30 days after
4 of 8
typical 30-day move
+15.6%
next up
—
Every eventMEASURED26 events
The record: every event and what followed
as of · CoinPaprika · DefiLlama · exchange announcements · PatternPlus effectsread it →
DRV: 26 events, newest first; six signed numbers per row are the price change from the close before the event, in UTC; vs BTC is the difference of the two 30-day moves
Date
Event
Venue
7d before
Next day
7 days
30 days
vs BTC
90 days
Source
2026
all-time high DRV all-time high: $0.5003
—
+218.3%
+3.9%
−10.6%
in 17 days
in 17 days
in 77 days
derived
Highest daily close in our price history. DRV set an all-time high on Sep 23, 2026; the day-30 effect will be recorded in 17 days (day 1: +3.9%).
Users paid DRV's protocol $218k in fees in the week to 2026-08-22 (DefiLlama), 2.5 times its weekly average over the 4 weeks before. DefiLlama fills a day in after it ends, so the event is dated 2026-08-24: the move is the coin's from the close a full day after that week. On Aug 24, 2026 DRV saw a fee surge; it rose 12.7% by day 1 and was 270.1% higher 30 days later, 262 points ahead of BTC; it had moved +27.2% in the 7 days before.
Users paid DRV's protocol $127k in fees in the week to 2026-03-02 (DefiLlama), 2.0 times its weekly average over the 4 weeks before. DefiLlama fills a day in after it ends, so the event is dated 2026-03-04: the move is the coin's from the close a full day after that week. On Mar 4, 2026 DRV saw a fee surge; it rose 0.8% by day 1 and was 110.8% higher 30 days later, 113 points ahead of BTC; it had moved +15.4% in the 7 days before.
Users paid DRV's protocol $40k in fees in the week to 2026-02-10 (DefiLlama), 0.5 times its weekly average over the 4 weeks before. DefiLlama fills a day in after it ends, so the event is dated 2026-02-12: the move is the coin's from the close a full day after that week. On Feb 12, 2026 DRV saw a fee slump; it rose 4.9% by day 1 and was 117.8% higher 30 days later, 112 points ahead of BTC; it had moved −6.5% in the 7 days before.
Users paid DRV's protocol $122k in fees in the week to 2026-02-01 (DefiLlama), 2.0 times its weekly average over the 4 weeks before. DefiLlama fills a day in after it ends, so the event is dated 2026-02-03: the move is the coin's from the close a full day after that week. On Feb 3, 2026 DRV saw a fee surge; it fell 9.0% by day 1 and was 17.9% lower 30 days later, 8 points behind BTC; it had moved −1.3% in the 7 days before.
Users paid DRV's protocol $39k in fees in the week to 2025-11-30 (DefiLlama), 0.5 times its weekly average over the 4 weeks before. DefiLlama fills a day in after it ends, so the event is dated 2025-12-02: the move is the coin's from the close a full day after that week. On Dec 2, 2025 DRV saw a fee slump; it rose 18.7% by day 1 and was 40.0% higher 30 days later, 37 points ahead of BTC; it had moved −11.9% in the 7 days before.
Users paid DRV's protocol $29k in fees in the week to 2025-04-20 (DefiLlama), 0.5 times its weekly average over the 4 weeks before. DefiLlama fills a day in after it ends, so the event is dated 2025-04-22: the move is the coin's from the close a full day after that week. On Apr 22, 2025 DRV saw a fee slump; it rose 10.0% by day 1 and was 8.9% lower 30 days later, 37 points behind BTC; it had moved +28.4% in the 7 days before.
Users paid DRV's protocol $53k in fees in the week to 2025-03-18 (DefiLlama), 0.5 times its weekly average over the 4 weeks before. DefiLlama fills a day in after it ends, so the event is dated 2025-03-20: the move is the coin's from the close a full day after that week. On Mar 20, 2025 DRV saw a fee slump; it fell 13.1% by day 1 and was 21.3% lower 30 days later, 19 points behind BTC; it had moved +9.1% in the 7 days before.
Users paid DRV's protocol $183k in fees in the week to 2025-01-26 (DefiLlama), 0.5 times its weekly average over the 4 weeks before. DefiLlama fills a day in after it ends, so the event is dated 2025-01-28: the move is the coin's from the close a full day after that week. On Jan 28, 2025 DRV saw a fee slump; it rose 3.5% by day 1 and was 50.1% lower 30 days later, 33 points behind BTC; it had moved −41.9% in the 7 days before.
Users paid DRV's protocol $209k in fees in the week to 2024-12-18 (DefiLlama), 2.1 times its weekly average over the 4 weeks before. DefiLlama fills a day in after it ends, so the event is dated 2024-12-20: the move is the coin's from the close a full day after that week. DRV saw a fee surge on Dec 20, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
DRV's protocol TVL (DefiLlama) rose 27% during 2024-12-03, from $70M, and held at the next reading. Dated 2024-12-05, when that was clear; the move is the coin's from the close before. DRV saw a TVL surge on Dec 5, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
Users paid DRV's protocol $111k in fees in the week to 2024-11-09 (DefiLlama), 2.1 times its weekly average over the 4 weeks before. DefiLlama fills a day in after it ends, so the event is dated 2024-11-11: the move is the coin's from the close a full day after that week. DRV saw a fee surge on Nov 11, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
DRV's protocol TVL (DefiLlama) rose 22% during 2024-06-13, from $37M, and held at the next reading. Dated 2024-06-15, when that was clear; the move is the coin's from the close before. DRV saw a TVL surge on Jun 15, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
Users paid DRV's protocol $108k in fees in the week to 2024-05-23 (DefiLlama), 2.1 times its weekly average over the 4 weeks before. DefiLlama fills a day in after it ends, so the event is dated 2024-05-25: the move is the coin's from the close a full day after that week. DRV saw a fee surge on May 25, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
DRV's protocol TVL (DefiLlama) rose 61% during 2024-05-21, from $15M, and held at the next reading. Dated 2024-05-23, when that was clear; the move is the coin's from the close before. DRV saw a TVL surge on May 23, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
DRV's protocol TVL (DefiLlama) rose 21% during 2023-05-25, from $27M, and held at the next reading. Dated 2023-05-27, when that was clear; the move is the coin's from the close before. DRV saw a TVL surge on May 27, 2023; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
DRV's protocol TVL (DefiLlama) rose 23% during 2023-01-31, from $17M, and held at the next reading. Dated 2023-02-02, when that was clear; the move is the coin's from the close before. DRV saw a TVL surge on Feb 2, 2023; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
hallmark Launch on Arbitrum
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
defillama
DRV saw a hallmark on Jan 30, 2023; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
DRV's protocol TVL (DefiLlama) rose 38% during 2022-08-03, from $12M, and held at the next reading. Dated 2022-08-05, when that was clear; the move is the coin's from the close before. DRV saw a TVL surge on Aug 5, 2022; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
hallmark OP Rewards Distribution Start
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
defillama
DRV saw a hallmark on Aug 3, 2022; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
hallmark Lyra Avalon Start
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
defillama
DRV saw a hallmark on Jun 27, 2022; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
DRV's protocol TVL (DefiLlama) fell 30% during 2022-06-17, from $24M, and held at the next reading. Dated 2022-06-19, when that was clear; the move is the coin's from the close before. DRV saw a TVL crash on Jun 19, 2022; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
hallmark Lyra V1.1 End
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
defillama
DRV saw a hallmark on Jun 16, 2022; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
DRV's protocol TVL (DefiLlama) fell 23% during 2022-05-27, from $40M, and held at the next reading. Dated 2022-05-29, when that was clear; the move is the coin's from the close before. DRV saw a TVL crash on May 29, 2022; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
2021
hallmark Token Program Start
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
defillama
DRV saw a hallmark on Nov 2, 2021; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
hallmark Lyra Token
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
defillama
DRV saw a hallmark on Oct 26, 2021; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
Source: events from CoinPaprika, DefiLlama and exchange announcements; effects computed by PatternPlus (see methodology) · fetched
Against the venue medianMEASURED
How DRV's events compare with the venue median
as of · event_stats computed by PatternPlusread it →
Venue · kind
DRV median day 30
DRV n
Venue median day 30
Venue n
Up after 30 d (venue)
Position
all venues · fee surge
+110.8%
3
−2.3%
424
46.7%
above
all venues · fee slump
−8.9%
5
−8.3%
373
35.7%
below
Venue · kind
DRV median day 7
DRV n
Venue median day 7
Venue n
Up after 7 d (venue)
Position
all venues · all-time high
−10.6%
1
−17.7%
—
—
above
all venues · fee surge
+8.6%
3
−1.3%
—
—
above
all venues · fee slump
−7.0%
5
−3.1%
—
—
below
Day 7: the venue's event count and up-share are kept for day 30 only (—); its median uses every event measured to day 7.
Venue · kind
DRV median day 1
DRV n
Venue median day 1
Venue n
Up after 1 d (venue)
Position
all venues · all-time high
+3.9%
1
−3.7%
—
—
above
all venues · fee surge
+0.8%
3
+0.2%
—
—
above
all venues · fee slump
+4.9%
5
−0.7%
—
—
above
Day 1: the venue's event count and up-share are kept for day 30 only (—); its median uses every event measured to day 1.
Venue
Kind
n
Median next day
Median 7 days
Median 30 days
Up after 30 days
Mean 30 days
all venues
all-time high
455
−3.7%
−17.7%
−40.6%
5.7%
−39.3%
all venues
fee slump
373
−0.7%
−3.1%
−8.3%
35.7%
−5.6%
all venues
fee surge
424
+0.2%
−1.3%
−2.3%
46.7%
+4.6%
all venues
hallmark
27
−2.0%
−4.0%
−4.3%
40.7%
−0.8%
all venues
TVL crash
255
−0.0%
−1.6%
−9.0%
29.0%
−2.1%
all venues
TVL surge
247
−1.0%
−3.0%
−11.2%
33.2%
−5.7%
computed 2026-10-06 from every measured event on record
Source: event_stats, all measured events on record · fetched
Issuer powersON RECORD
What the issuer can do to DRV holders (checked Oct 4, 2026)
Issuer powers first recorded on Oct 4, 2026: mint authority unknown, freeze authority unknown, upgrade key unknown, admin keys held, honeypot unknown, pause unknown, blacklist unknown, transfer tax unknown.
event
hallmark
3,412
New record entry (hallmark, Oct 26, 2021): Lyra Token.
event
hallmark
3,413
New record entry (hallmark, Nov 2, 2021): Token Program Start.
event
hallmark
3,414
New record entry (hallmark, Jun 16, 2022): Lyra V1.1 End.
event
hallmark
3,415
New record entry (hallmark, Jun 27, 2022): Lyra Avalon Start.
event
hallmark
3,416
New record entry (hallmark, Aug 3, 2022): OP Rewards Distribution Start.
event
hallmark
3,417
New record entry (hallmark, Jan 30, 2023): Launch on Arbitrum.
OUR NUMBERS ABOVE · PUBLIC FACTS BELOW
Where DRV is listedON RECORD2 venues
Where DRV is listed: spot and perpetuals, with dates
as of · exchange instrument APIs · announcementsread it →
Exchange coverage matrix: 2 venues on record; cell text is the listing date
Source: PatternPlus, computed from every token in the peer set · fetched
4
The full write-up
every sentence on DRV · questions · sources
DRV in short
Derive (DRV), a crypto token on its own chain with no start date recorded, stands at rank #158 by market cap as of Oct 6, 2026, 18.0% below its Sep 23, 2026 high.
As of Oct 6, 2026 the price is $0.4100 (0.0% over 24 hours), market cap $302.4M, fully diluted value $410M, 54,251 holders, $197.8M TVL.
Status on CoinPaprika: active; DRV is the native coin of its own chain, so there is no token contract.
CoinPaprika tickers and DefiLlama, read Oct 6, 2026.
This site has 26 past events for Derive: 0 exchange listings, 0 futures listings, 0 unlocks, 0 hacks and 0 funding rounds; the median 30-day move after the 8 measured events was +15.6%.
From the latest data refresh
Derive (DRV), crypto on its own chain, holds rank #158 by market cap on Oct 6, 2026 and trades 18.0% under its Sep 23, 2026 high.
Across 8 measured events the median day-30 move was +15.6%.
Since PatternPlus began recording on Oct 3, 2026 (4 daily snapshots), rank moved from #157 to #158.
No exchange listing with a date is on record for DRV as of Oct 6, 2026.
No listing of DRV has a measurable day-30 outcome yet as of Oct 6, 2026.
No unlock schedule is on record for DRV as of Oct 6, 2026.
The issuer holds 1 of 1 checked powers (admin keys); 12 were not checked.
No funding round is recorded by DefiLlama for Derive as of Oct 6, 2026.
Derive lists 1 audit link on DefiLlama; no hack is recorded as of Oct 6, 2026.
No team member is recorded on CoinPaprika for Derive as of Oct 6, 2026.
DefiLlama reports $197.8M TVL and $545,402 revenue over 30 days as of Oct 6, 2026;
revenue to market cap of 0.022 sits at the 63rd percentile of 1541 all tokens on record tokens.
Generated from this record's own rows at build time; as of Oct 6, 2026.
Across 424 fee surges across every token on record, the median move is +0.2% on day 1 and −2.3% by day 30; 46.7% were still up after 30 days; DRV's 3 sit above that median at +110.8%.
Across 373 fee slumps across every token on record, the median move is −0.7% on day 1 and −8.3% by day 30;
35.7% were still up after 30 days;
DRV's 5 sit below that median at −8.9%.
DRV sits above the venue median in 1 of 2 venue-and-kind comparisons as of Oct 6, 2026.
event_stats recomputed nightly; as of Oct 6, 2026.
The issuer holds 1 of 1 checked powers as of Oct 4, 2026; 12 not checked, 0 not applicable.
Admin keys are held (ethplorer+dexscreener, checked Oct 4, 2026): admin keys exist that can change protocol parameters without a holder vote.
Whether the issuer can mint new tokens, freeze accounts, upgrade the contract, change balances, act through a hidden owner, blacklist addresses, restrict transfers to a whitelist, pause transfers, take a tax on purchases, take a tax on sales, block resale and hide the contract source was not checked: no ethplorer+dexscreener response for those fields on Ethereum as of Oct 4, 2026.
The owner address on Ethereum is 0x169a99b9958386a5d91e732ed08b344946a92391 (ethplorer+dexscreener, checked Oct 4, 2026).
security rows per chain and tokens.powers; vocabulary fixed: held, revoked, unknown; checked Oct 4, 2026.
26 events since Oct 26, 2021; 4 of the 8 measured were followed by a lower price 30 days later; best Fees up 2.5x: DRV's protocol took $218k in a week on Aug 24, 2026 (+270.1%), worst Fees down 0.5x: DRV's protocol took $183k in a week on Jan 28, 2025 (−50.1%).
630 daily closes from Jan 15, 2025 to Oct 6, 2026 are plotted on a log scale, with the rank from 4 snapshots as a step line.
The all-time high marker sits at $0.5003 on Sep 23, 2026, 13 days before Oct 6, 2026.
prices, metrics_daily, events and effects; as of Oct 6, 2026.
The change log holds 26 entries between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 6, 2026; the newest reads: New record entry (fees jump, May 25, 2024): Fees up 2.1x: DRV's protocol took $108k in a week.
The all-time high on record for Derive is $0.5003 on Sep 23, 2026, 13 days ago as of Oct 6, 2026; the price is 18.0% below it; over 30 days it moved 0.0% against 0.0% for BTC (beta 1.36).
Price change as of Oct 6, 2026: +0.2% over 1 hour, 0.0% over 24 hours, +6.4% over 7 days, 0.0% over 30 days, 0.0% over 1 year.
Market cap is 73.8% of fully diluted value ($302.4M of $410M), so 26.2% of the valuation sits in supply that does not circulate yet.
24-hour volume of $6.2M is 2.0% of market cap as of Oct 6, 2026.
Circulating supply is 737.5M of 1B total (73.8%) and a maximum of 1B.
The all tokens on record median 30-day change is 0.0% across 1541 tokens, so DRV sits below its peer set.
CoinPaprika tickers read Oct 6, 2026; BTC comparison from the BTC record.
Derive has 1 contract or mint address on record across 1 chain (ethereum); it is the native coin of its own chain.
No other token on record uses the symbol DRV as of Oct 6, 2026.
Derive shares its ticker with DRV (Dragon Verse) (ticker collision on CoinPaprika, read Oct 6, 2026).
Identity fields from CoinPaprika as of Oct 6, 2026: start date not recorded, first market data Mar 8, 2025, proof type not stated, organisation structure not stated, no whitepaper link.
Cross-references as of Oct 6, 2026: CoinPaprika id drv7-derive, DefiLlama slug lyra, no GitHub repository recorded.
No follower or star counts were read for Derive as of Oct 6, 2026.
CoinPaprika /coins and DefiLlama /protocols (contract addresses), token_contracts, token_aliases; read Oct 6, 2026.
Over the 30 days to Oct 6, 2026 DefiLlama records $684,750 of fees and $545,402 of revenue for Derive, against $197.8M of TVL; revenue to market cap is 0.022, the 63rd percentile among 1541 all tokens on record tokens.
Annualised revenue of $6.5M gives a price-to-sales multiple of 46.2x at the $302.4M market cap of Oct 6, 2026.
TVL moved +59867.5% between Sep 1, 2021 and Oct 4, 2026 (346 daily points).
Base carries 28.3% of TVL across 7 chains (Base $55.2M, Hyperliquid L1 $51.6M, Ethereum $35.8M, Optimism $32.6M and Arbitrum $19.8M).
DefiLlama records no parent protocol for Derive (not a fork).
2 oracles are listed on DefiLlama: Chainlink and Pyth.
DefiLlama lists Derive under 'Derivatives' since Dec 15, 2023 (slug lyra).
DefiLlama protocol, fees and TVL endpoints; as of Oct 6, 2026.
Among 1541 all tokens on record tokens, Derive is at the 90th percentile by market cap, 94th by distance from ATH and unranked by share unlocked as of Oct 6, 2026.
The peer median market cap is $13.7M, the median distance from ATH −94.7% and the median 30-day change 0.0%.
By holders DRV sits at P73 (54,251 against a median of 17,356); by exchanges at PNone.
The nearest peers by rank are Binance Beacon ETH (#158), Celestia (#159), Syrup Token (#156), Arweave (#160) and Stader ETHx (#155).
Market cap: $302.4M (P90 of 1541; peer median $13.7M).
Volume / market cap (24h): 2.03% (P46 of 1541; peer median 2.49%).
30-day change: 0.0% (P50 of 1541; peer median 0.0%).
Distance from ATH: −18.0% (P94 of 1541; peer median −94.7%).
Revenue / market cap (30d): 0.022 (P63 of 285; peer median 0.006).
Holders: 54,251 (P73 of 267; peer median 17,356).
TVL: $197.8M (P79 of 421; peer median $5.4M).
peer set: all tokens on record (1541 tokens); as of Oct 6, 2026.
483 of our coins trade as Binance perpetuals; the 200 biggest read: 197 tonight (open interest, accounts long, top traders, takers), funding caught up on 196 (93889 readings); 75341 coin-days stored; 774 funding extremes as events; the rest comes over the next nights
45,323 coin-driver tests; 23 proven on 20 coins, 1840 likely
2026-10-06 04:21 UTC
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edge
35 kinds of event against their coins' ordinary days, by day; a clear edge (95% range, both halves agree) up for cpi, fees_jump, funding_low, down for delisting, futures_listing, hack, kr_discount, listing
2026-10-06 05:12 UTC
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effects
11829 effects, 51 stats rows
2026-10-06 04:20 UTC
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etherscan
skipped: no ETHERSCAN_KEY in data/config_local.py or the environment
521 of our coins trade as Gate USDT perpetuals; 512 read tonight, 88377 coin-days stored; 4 liquidation spikes as events; the rest is read on the next nights
176 of our coins trade as Hyperliquid perps; 23 read up to now tonight (122 pages), 9278 coin-days stored; 153 funding extremes; the rest of the history comes over the next nights
819 of 1541 coins have a logo (coingecko 709, trustwallet 105, jupiter 4, website 1). Tonight 0 asked. Without one, by rank: RAIN, CC, WETH, JITOSOL, RETH, KHYPE, RSETH, WBNB, SUSDE, SYRUPUSDC, METH, JLP (drop a file in data/curated/logos/<slug>.png)
7 proven signals: ath after (30d), ath after (7d), funding_low after (1d), pump after (1d), pump after (7d), unlock after (1d), vol_spike after (1d); 29 of tonight's predictions moved
2026-10-06 04:20 UTC
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snapshot
daily snapshots and the change log
2026-10-06 04:38 UTC
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snapshot_org
1423 governance votes on 40 coins from 40 Snapshot spaces; tonight 0 proposals read (to 2026-09-10), 0 big closed ones kept, 3 open or pending; 0 events new, 0 removed
167 rules tested; 4 survived discovery and the holdout (4 new tonight): max_30:low:1d:q20:all, skew_30:low:14d:q10:all, volume_trend:low:1d:q10:all; 4 in the book
57 of 260 coins due fetched (4 from CoinGecko, 53 from CoinPaprika; 29 with schedule files, 350 of the top 400); no CoinGecko id for 2: STABLE, WTRX; CoinGecko stopped: HTTP 429
10 of 169 coins with 120+ days of supply history release on a monthly or quarterly pattern; 39 releases projected: APT (monthly, day 14), ARB (quarterly, day 18), ENA (monthly, day 6), ETHFI (quarterly, day 17), GRASS (monthly, day 29), IO (monthly, day 1), KCS (quarterly, day 1), MOVE (monthly, day 9), STRK (quarterly, day 16), WLD (quarterly, day 21)
2026-10-06 03:35 UTC
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teamfinance
1 of 42 coins hold Team Finance vesting; 4 contracts still being read for the first time
2 of 5 feeds read, 2 series kept, 158 points written tonight; failed: gdelt:ethereum: HTTP 429: Please limit requests to one every 5 seconds or contact [email protected] for larger queries. All high-traf; gdelt:regulation: HTTP 429: Please limit requests to one every 5 seconds or contact [email protected] for larger queries. All high-tr; gdelt:hack: HTTP 429: Please limit requests to one every 5 seconds or contact [email protected] for larger queries. All high-traffic
Effects are measured as described on the methodology page. Facts are compiled from public sources; nothing on this page is advice. Corrections: [email protected].
ethplorer last fetched successfully on Oct 6, 2026 03:31 UTC;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-06T03:31:11+00:00 HTTP 429 https://api.ethplorer.io/getTokenInfo/0xabd4c), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
fred last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-06T03:35:01+00:00 no FRED_API_KEY: the jobs, PPI, PCE, GDP and retail sa), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
x_coinpaprika_g last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-06T04:11:08+00:00 coinpaprika_g:global: HTTP 402: { "type":"payment_requ), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
This page is generated from 6,061 database rows and rebuilt daily; first published Oct 4, 2026.
PatternPlus compiles facts from public sources and gives no financial advice; corrections by email. As of Oct 6, 2026.
How to read this
Band 1 is the prediction: the chance of a higher price, the typical move and the likely range, with the real past setups behind it drawn as they moved.
Band 2 is why: the drivers, the next events and how our past calls on this coin went.
Band 3 is the data: every table and chart, dated; green means the price was higher afterwards, red lower.
Band 4 is the write-up: the same record in words, with the questions and the sources.