What moves XMR · PROVEN · measured Oct 6, 2026
When Bitcoin rose 3% or more in a day, XMR ended lower the next day more often than on any day
Found in 261 cases in XMR's history, the latest Feb 14, 2024. Calls like it, made only from what was known before each one, were right 58% of 113 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day. Past patterns, not financial advice.
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Out of sample
58%
right, of 113 calls like it since 2020
That side on any day
49%
how often XMR ended lower anyway
Cases
261
in its history, the latest Feb 14, 2024
How it is proven
XMR is tested on its own history every night: each cause against XMR's own moves from any day, its biggest days capped, so one giant pump cannot make a driver. Proven means past the cut for testing thousands of causes at once, both halves of its history leaning the same way, XMR ending lower more often than on any day by a clear margin, and 12 cases or more.
Proven on the whole history is not the same as right the next time. So the discovery is also re-run as it stood at the start of each calendar quarter, on what came before it only, and the quarter after it is called with what it found; a kind of finding earns a call on the site only when counting every day once, its side was right more often than that same side won on any day of the coin's quarter, in both halves of the quarters walked, at a Newey-West t of 1.645 or more, on 100 or more scored calls over 60 or more separate days.
Source: XMR's own daily closes, its events and the market-wide releases on record · measured · the method in full